Japanese Politics Updates – October 6, 2024

 

Welcome to the Synopsis of the 191st briefing “Japanese Politics One-on-One”!

Here are the most crucial events going on in Japanese politics, compiled from the October 6 briefing:

• Yen closes out weak at $/¥148.72 compared to $/¥142 last week, Shigeru Ishiba’s election as new PM impacted the Yen and precipitated a 4.8% stock market fall… that is not particularly good news.
• Ishiba will attend ASEAN next week, and in the hot seat just before departure, facing questioning at conferences on Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday. It is going to be very heated!
• One month away from the US presidential election.
• 1 year ago tomorrow, the Hamas attack on Israel.
• Public Opinion polls are tentative about Ishiba: Kishida started at 59% approval, Ishiba starts at 49%. This is the lowest in many presidencies with Taro Aso ranking slightly worse (he lasted less than a year). Cabinet approval is even lower at 32% approval, with disapproval at 44%.
• All things considered, the LDP is doing better than it was during the final 6-8 months of the Kishida administration. 
• Remember to check out the post-election debrief with Dan Harada and Timothy uploaded Thursday last week: already several thousand hits!

Mr. Ishiba’s First Week in Office – Political Developments Concerning Japan’s New Prime Minister and LDP Leadership

Japan’s newly appointed Prime Minister, Shigeru Ishiba, faces immediate challenges five days into his administration. The slush fund scandal that plagued his predecessor, Fumio Kishida, continues to loom over the administration. Voters remain unconvinced of its resolution, with the opposition and elements within Ishiba’s own Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) pressing for further action. The Unification Church controversy, which implicated many LDP members, also remains unresolved.

Key Challenges

• Slush Fund Scandal: The unresolved slush fund scandal continues to affect the public’s perception. Many implicated politicians remain in office without significant consequences, with only a few reprimands.
• Unification Church Controversy: Voters and political opponents are still questioning the depth of the now-defunct relationships between the LDP and the controversial Unification Church, casting further doubt on the party’s integrity.
• Internal Dissent: Despite winning the LDP leadership, Ishiba faces significant internal challenges. Factionalism within the LDP is a critical factor, as prominent figures like Taro Aso, Sanae Takaichi, Takayuki Kobayashi and others, previously aligned with former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s faction, may oppose his leadership, especially after being sidelined for key roles in his administration.
• Flip-Flopping on Campaign Promises: Ishiba has already reversed some of his campaign positions, including his pledge to avoid a snap election until extensive and fruitful discussions with the opposition had transpired. This has raised concerns about his leadership style and reliability. It has also contributed to the second-lowest approval rating for a new Prime Minister in Japanese history.

Coalition Dynamics and Election Plans

The LDP holds a 52-seat majority in coalition with the Komeito party. This majority provides a significant but not overwhelming advantage in the Diet. Komeito’s consistent support is crucial to maintaining this majority, especially with upcoming elections. However, Komeito’s base may find it challenging to reconcile its progressive “clean government” stance with continued cooperation with the LDP.

Ishiba intends to call for a snap election in the coming weeks, accelerating the political timetable. This move pits him against opposition parties led by the Constitutional Democratic Party’s (CDP) new leader, Yoshihiko Noda. Noda’s strategy is to unite opposition forces, including the Ishin-no-Kai, to challenge LDP dominance. Ishiba will need to contend not only with the opposition but also disgruntled factions within his own party.

Economic Impacts and Yen Volatility

Ishiba’s recent statements against raising interest rates, traditionally the exclusive purview of the Bank of Japan, have triggered a sharp slide in the yen. Market analysts expected a rate hike before the end of the year. Ishiba’s remarks, however, have enhanced rather than diminished uncertainty and instability.

Leadership Background

Ishiba, who narrowly won the LDP leadership over Takaichi, emerged from a tightly contested internal battle. The ongoing presence of disgruntled party members from the Abe faction, as well as others sidelined in Cabinet appointments, complicates his efforts to unify the party ahead of the general election. As history suggests, a low starting approval rating is a precarious sign for a new Prime Minister. Ishiba’s current approval rating is second only to Taro Aso’s historically low rating, which contributed to his administration lasting less than a year.

Immediate Political Calendar

Over the next week, Ishiba will face intense scrutiny in the Diet, with key sessions scheduled for Monday and Tuesday in particular. On Wednesday, Ishiba plans to dissolve the Diet, initiating a five-day countdown to the snap election. So the Q&A portion carry significant throw-weight since immediately thereafter, entering a tough 12 day election cycle. It will be dicy.

Following his speech in the Diet, Ishiba will attend the ASEAN summit in Laos. He will return just before the election campaign officially begins on October 15. The campaign will last 12 days, with election results being critical to determining the direction of both the LDP and Ishiba’s political future. Stay closely tuned-in!

Maritime Self-Defense Forces and Regional Naval Exercises

Recent maritime activity in the Pacific region has highlighted increasing tensions and naval exercises involving several countries, including Japan. These events underscore a growing coalition of like-minded nations responding to China’s assertive military actions in the region, particularly around Taiwan and the South China Sea.

Key Points

Japan’s Maritime Participation:

The Japan Maritime Self-Defense Forces deployed the destroyer Sazanami through Taiwanese waters, joining a coalition of naval vessels for military exercises. This marked the first time a Japanese destroyer passed through this area of the Taiwan Strait.

The Sazanami was part of a flotilla that included ships from the U.S., Australia, New Zealand, and the Philippines. These vessels conducted drills and patrols near the Scarborough Shoal, a critical and contested region within the Philippines’ exclusive economic zone.

China’s Recent Actions:

In a show of naval strength, China earlier sent a flotilla of around 40 vessels. Led by an aircraft carrier, the flotilla navigated the waters between two of Okinawa’s islands. While not a breach of maritime law, the move was seen as highly provocative.

China also conducted a ballistic missile test, notifying most countries impacted by the flyover but omitting Japan. The missile overflew the region and landed in the Pacific, raising concerns in Japan and neighboring nations.

Expansion of International Naval Collaboration:

Canada’s Coast Guard made its first port call to Yokohama with the icebreaker Sir Wilfrid Laurier. This marked a significant moment in Japan’s growing international maritime cooperation.

Japan has already donated vessels to the Philippines Coast Guard, bolstering regional capabilities.

This coalition of forces demonstrates a unified response to potential Chinese aggression, particularly concerning Taiwan. The naval exercises highlight collective readiness and strengthen deterrence.

Strategic Importance of the Scarborough Shoal:

The Scarborough Shoal is a significant flashpoint between the Philippines and China. By conducting joint patrols in this area, the coalition of forces (a ‘latticework’ according to US characterizations) aims to counter China’s expansive claims in the South China Sea and assert dominance in this crucial maritime zone. This does not have a good feel to it.

Increased Tensions and Risk of Miscalculation:

With both China and coalition forces conducting military exercises in close proximity, the risk of miscalculation is rising. This volatile situation could escalate quickly, making the region a critical focus for international security observers.

Taking Stock

These developments suggest an increasingly coordinated effort among U.S. allies and regional powers to contain China’s influence and maintain a balance of power in the Indo-Pacific. The presence of Canadian, U.S., Japanese, and Australian forces signals a collective commitment to regional stability. It also indicates a deterrence strategy against any potential aggressive actions by China, particularly concerning Taiwan.

Japan’s active role in these exercises, along with its contributions to the Philippines Coast Guard, demonstrates the country’s growing leadership in regional defense cooperation. The recent naval exercises are part of a broader strategy to enhance security ties and ensure a united front in the face of growing tensions with China. And now the Canadian Coast Guard is a part of the team.

The intensification of naval exercises in the region reflects the complex geopolitical dynamics in the Indo-Pacific. As China continues its military posturing, Japan and its allies are reinforcing their defensive networks and signaling a strong deterrence capability. This coalition of forces not only strengthens regional security but also sends a clear message to China about the collective will to defend the status quo in the Taiwan Strait and the broader South China Sea.

Abe Faction Treasurer Sentenced

Matsumoto Junichiro, former treasurer of the Abe faction, has been sentenced after pleading guilty to embezzling 670 million yen in political funds over a six-year period. The full extent of the scheme reportedly spanned 20+ years, but the public prosecutors limited their investigation to a shorter period (only 4 years). Matsumoto, aged 77, was convicted of under-reporting funds and distributing them to members of the Abe faction. His sentence includes three years in prison, suspended for five years. This means he will not serve time unless he commits another offense during the suspension period. (He has been beyond retirement for already 16 years).

Key Developments

This sentencing follows a similar case within the Nikai faction, where their Accountant was convicted on September 10 and received a two-year prison sentence, also suspended for five years. Public sentiment is growing for more robust accountability. Many voters feel that these suspensions do not represent adequate punishment. Furthermore, there is a strong demand for transparency and responsibility from the LDP leadership. Certainly, the thinking goes, the Accountants only did what they were told.

LDP’s Response and Upcoming Decisions

The scandal has placed significant pressure on the ruling LDP to address corruption and restore public trust. There is widespread speculation about the Abe faction’s influence and whether other members benefited from these political slush funds. Mr. Ishiba is now the key figure in the LDP. He is expected to make critical decisions this week about how to handle the fallout from this particular scandal. The public will be watching closely to see whether he endorses candidates who may have received illegal funds or takes a stronger stance on reform. And not to mince words, but PM Ishiba harbors a long-standing grudge against Mr. Shinzo Abe personally and by extension the Abe Faction. So maybe a time for some pay-back?

Next Steps

Mr. Ishiba’s decisions regarding how the party handles implicated-faction-members will set the tone for the LDP’s future direction. His stance on corruption could either galvanize reform efforts or deepen discontent within the electorate. This week is pivotal in shaping the LDP’s response and public image moving forward. They might opt for a transparent and firm stance on political wrongdoing or choose political expediency. Either way, will have significant electoral and reputational consequences.

This case represents a major test for the LDP’s leadership. Voter dissatisfaction with the handling of these corruption cases could lead to a re-evaluation of the party’s leadership and political strategy, especially as the public continues to demand accountability. Stay tuned.

Questions & Comments from The Audience Answered Exclusively During the Briefing

• With limited increase in the popularity polls many LDP lawmakers will be viewing the coming snap election as an undue risk. What is Timothy’s assessment of this? What will happen if the loss of seats is larger than expected?
• How many seats could the LDP potentially lose in the coming election?
• Will Ishiba be forced to take responsibility if they lose their simple majority of 233 seats?
• If there is a significant defeat, what kind of adjustments might the LDP make if Ishiba does not step down?
• In the event of a major LDP defeat. Is there a chance that a CDP (Constitutional Democratic Party) government could emerge?
• Do you think that the anti-Ishiba wing of the LDP might have foreseen his victory and are happy to let Ishiba win so that his administration would be short-lived?
• How much does it really matter that Ishiba has support from rank-and-file members? Is this important?
• Is the bully pulpit really a factor in Japanese electoral politics? Will it help Mr. Ishiba overcome his unpopularity with other LDP lawmakers?
• Do you think that the U.S.-Japan Security Treaty will be revised?
• What are your thoughts on the likelihood of a Taro Kono comeback?

 

 

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