Japanese Politics Updates – September 29, 2024

Welcome to the Synopsis of the 190th briefing “Japanese Politics One-on-One”! This series is a collaborative project between Langley Esquire and Japan Expert Insights.

Good morning, global Japan-Hands! Here are the most crucial events going on in Japanese politics, compiled from the Sunday briefing just for you!

• The Liberal Democratic Party elected Shigeru Ishiba as their new leader.
• The Constitutional Democratic Party also did the same with Yoshihiko Noda as their new leader. 
• The Komeito Party elected Keiichi Ishii as their new leader, the first change of its leadership in 15 years.
• Tune-in to our Election Update Briefing on Thursday!

Japanese Maritime Response to Chinese Provocations

In recent months, Chinese military activity near Japan has intensified. There have been several instances of Chinese aircraft and ships approaching Japanese waters. This includes a Chinese surveillance plane briefly entering Japanese airspace and an aircraft carrier group passing in between the Okinawa Islands (for the first time ever). While these actions did not violate Japanese territorial waters, they have raised concerns within Japan’s government and her allies.

Japanese Response

In a significant and unprecedented move, Japan’s Maritime Self-Defense Force sent a warship through the Taiwan Strait (another first). This action, viewed as a direct response to Chinese provocations, is the first of its kind from Japan. It signals a firm stance against China’s military actions in the region, showcasing Japan’s willingness to respond proportionately.

Tit-for-Tat Diplomacy

Japan’s decision to send a warship through the Taiwan Strait can be interpreted as a measured, strategic response to China’s incursions. It marks a significant shift in Japan’s defense posture, intended to deter further provocations without escalating tensions unnecessarily. This move comes near the end of Prime Minister Fumio Kishida’s tenure, raising the question whether the country would have taken such a bold action if his political future were more secure. Nonetheless, it appears that Japan’s allies, particularly within the region, have expressed appreciation for this show of resolve.

The action reflects Japan’s intention to stand firm against Chinese provocations while balancing measured diplomacy with military readiness. The ongoing tensions in the region, particularly with regard to China’s military ambitions, remain a serious concern for Japan and its allies.

Ishikawa Prefecture Disaster Response

Natural disaster has struck Ishikawa Prefecture, particularly affecting the Noto Peninsula region. Torrential rainfall over the past week, combined with existing vulnerabilities caused by the January earthquake, has resulted in significant destruction due to landslides.

The disaster has resulted in the loss of nine lives, with approximately 200 people missing or isolated due to the landslides and flooding. The region has suffered extensive infrastructure damage with homes, roads, and essential services severely affected.

Response Efforts

Japan’s Self-Defense Forces (JSDF) have been deployed to the region to assist in search & rescue and recovery efforts. Additionally, many volunteers have joined in the response, contributing to search-operations and providing support to the affected population.

Government Relief Efforts

The Japanese government is expected to mobilize resources for the provision of temporary housing, essential equipment, and supplies. While Japan has a strong track record in disaster response, timely coordination and sufficient resource allocation will be critical in this instance. The government’s effectiveness in responding to the immediate needs of those affected and facilitating long-term recovery is under close scrutiny.

Japanese Politics and Leadership Transition

Shigeru Ishiba became Prime Minister of Japan on Friday after a highly competitive and volatile leadership race within the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP). The election reflects deep factional dynamics and key power struggles within the party, as well as the influence of major political figures, including former Prime Ministers and key faction leaders. The initial round of voting included nine candidates, and it narrowed down to a contest between Sanae Takaichi and Shigeru Ishiba; Ishiba ultimately won by a narrow margin, marking the end of a closely watched leadership race.

Factional Dynamics

The race highlighted a power struggle between three major factions in the LDP: the Aso faction, the Kishida faction, and the Suga faction. Former Prime Minister Fumio Kishida emerged as a significant player, with his faction’s support proving critical to Ishiba’s victory. Meanwhile, Taro Aso, long a central figure in LDP politics, saw a weakening of his influence. Kishida’s faction is likely to play a major role moving forward, even though Ishiba is now Prime Minister.

Kono Taro’s Disappointment

Kono Taro, a prominent candidate aligned with Aso’s faction, failed to receive the expected full support from Aso and ultimately lost ground, finishing eighth out of nine candidates. This was a surprising result in light of his earlier popularity, though he is expected to continue as a key figure in Japanese politics.

Cabinet Formation and Future Elections:

The next major step for Prime Minister Ishiba is to form his Cabinet, which he will announce on Tuesday. The Cabinet composition will indicate what the representation of various factions will be and how Ishiba plans to navigate the internal dynamics of the LDP. Ishiba may call for an early general election to solidify his leadership and strengthen the LDP’s policy platform. This move would belie his earlier criticism of former Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi, who advocated for immediate elections to reestablish LDP dominance.

Key Figures and Factional Shifts:

• Koizumi’s Decline: Once a top contender, Koizumi’s popularity faded towards the middle of the leadership race. However, he remains a young and prominent politician and is likely to receive a Cabinet position, allowing him to build experience for a future run for Prime Minister.
• Takaichi’s Rise and Fall: Sanae Takaichi performed well in the first round of voting but ultimately fell short. Her strong right-wing political stance and backing from Nippon Kaigi suggest she will continue to hold a prominent position in the government. This also means that she will potentially retain or receive a significant Cabinet role.
• Aso’s Potential Exit: Taro Aso, who has served as Deputy Prime Minister across multiple administrations, is unlikely to continue in this role given the outcome of the leadership race. His diminished influence marks a significant shift in LDP politics.

Shigeru Ishiba’s election as Prime Minister signifies a major realignment within the LDP, with Fumio Kishida’s faction emerging stronger. The leadership race underscored the complex factionalism that defines Japanese politics, with key figures like Kono and Takaichi remaining relevant for future leadership challenges. The coming weeks will provide more clarity on the direction of the Ishiba Administration. This will happen particularly through Cabinet appointments and potential early elections.

China’s ICBM Test in the Pacific

On Wednesday, China launched an ICBM into the Pacific Ocean, marking the first such test in 40 years. China stated that the test was a routine exercise. However, many consider it a provocative act given the current geopolitical climate. Notably, China did not inform Japan of the missile test, despite the missile landing in the Pacific. While it did not violate Japanese airspace, this lack of communication is seen as a diplomatic slight. In contrast, China did notify other relevant countries, such as the United States and Australia.

This missile test is another example of China’s increasingly assertive military actions in the region. It comes at a time when tensions between China and multiple countries, including South Korea, Japan, the United States, and the Philippines, are rising. These actions reflect China’s growing military confidence and willingness to project power in the Pacific.

Japan’s Position

Although Japan has not suffered a direct impact, the lack of prior notification underscores the strained relationship between China and Japan. The test also signals to Japan and other regional actors that China’s military presence is expanding. This also requires a vigilant and strategic response. Even though the test did not involve a live warhead. It raises concerns about China’s future intentions. As China continues to assert its military influence, regional stability will remain a critical concern for Japan and its allies.

Upcoming Extraordinary Diet Session

The Emperor will open an Extraordinary Diet session starting on Thursday. The session is likely to last several weeks, potentially extending until Christmas. This session could include significant political developments, including budget discussions and a potential call for a general election.

Cabinet Scrutiny and Potential Election Call

During the session, the Prime Minister and his Cabinet will face questioning, particularly regarding the national budget. This scrutiny may offer insights into the government’s fiscal plans and priorities for the upcoming year. There is widespread anticipation that the Prime Minister may use this session to dissolve the House and call for a general election. While this is not confirmed, many expect an election to be announced during or shortly after the Diet session. A clearer indication of whether or when an election might be called could emerge by Thursday, following initial developments in the Diet.

Questions & Comments from The Audience Answered Exclusively During the Briefing

• How important do you think it is to discuss the supplementary budget? Considering its connection to the general election and various economic issues, what are your thoughts?
• Do you believe Ishiba will earn the military’s trust?
• News reports have already indicated that Kato Katsunobu will serve as the financial minister, while Koizumi will receive and appointment as elections chairman. What are your thoughts on these appointments?
• What are your thoughts on the concept of an Asian NATO?
• Regarding the so-called “Asian NATO,” we can speculate that it would likely include South Korea and the Philippines. What role do you think Taiwan might play in this alliance?
• What are your thoughts on Hakamata-san, who spent 58 years on death row before the court declared him innocent just last week?
• Koizumi started strong and initially enjoyed significant popularity, yet he ultimately lost. Many pointed to his lackluster performance in the final debate as a key factor in his defeat. Do you agree with this assessment?
• Do you think Takaichi might have had a better chance of becoming LDP leader if a public election hadn’t been looming so soon?
• I’d love to hear your thoughts on Ishiba’s comeback victory—was it surprising, or did you see it coming?
• How would the Ishiba election affect the next general election in 2025? Can the LDP lose power?
• What do you think the future holds for Aso-san and the Aso faction in terms of their working relationship with the Ishiba administration?
• Was there a possibility that people within the party were not happy about Aso being at the forefront?
• I recently read in “Courrier International” (French magazine) that Noda-san might be a potential hope for defeating the LDP. What are your thoughts on this perspective?