Thank you for your interest in our political updates. Here are the most crucial events going on right now in the very exciting realm (whoever thought those words would be so ascribed?) of Japanese politics, compiled from October 13th briefing… just for you!
- Yen closed out at 149.16 dollars to the yen; a 4.4 percent drop, the worst week since 2009, very volatile.
- Ishiba in Laos for ASEAN, came back yesterday; his first foray into the international arena. Without even slightly possessing Kishida’s diplomatic chops, he kept a low profile but still had significant meetings with Chinese Premier Li, South Korean President Yoon and other regional leaders, as you would expect: nothing to write home about.
- The Diet was dissolved on Wednesday after three days of tough meetings, a podium speech on Monday, Tuesday’s questions from the opposition, revealing some of his manifesto/policy ideas. On Wednesday another speech before closing the Diet, in the meantime all the other parties have issued their manifestos outlining their political agendas. An incredibly active week.
- A decision came out on Wednesday to further downgrade 12 members of the LDP already stripped of their Committee, Cabinet or party posts. These 12 are not going to receive party endorsement during the campaign, nor will they be on the party list for the proportional vote. Ouch.
- Real wages have fallen, 0.6% drop in real wages for September.
Upcoming Lower House Election
Election Day: Sunday (always falls on a Sunday) October 27, 2024
At time of recording:
- There are a total of 465 seats in the Lower House. 1,170 candidates in the running.
- 289 single-district constituencies
- 176 proportional representation seats.
In the single-district races, individual candidates focus on personal policy promises and constituency ties. Meanwhile, proportional representation seats are typically filled by candidates with lesser public profiles or resources.
Opposition Parties:
- Many expect the Constitutional Democratic Party (CDP) to perform well, running 200 candidates.
- The Japanese Communist Party (JCP) is fielding 210 candidates(!), demonstrating its continued influence in Japanese politics and their depth in being able to field so many qualified & committed candidates: of worthy note.
- Ishin-no-kai is running 160 candidates.
- Democratic People’s Party (DPP) is fielding 40 candidates.
Current Composition of the Lower House:
- The LDP holds 258 seats (55% majority),
- Coalition partner, Komeito, holds 32 seats,
- Combined coalition holds 62% control of the Lower House.
This essentially means if the LDP loses 28 seats, they NEED the Komeito backing (unless of course Komeito loses seats too… that would bring the coalition combined-total under 50% of the Lower House.
The LDP’s weakened position and scandals undoubtedly will significantly impact their performance in this Lower House election: that is unavoidable. Opposition parties are taking advantage of the LDP’s vulnerabilities, with the CDP and JCP fielding a strong number of candidates and challenging the ruling party’s dominance. The Ishin-no-kai party also sees this as an opportunity to gain ground but faces the challenge of finding enough viable candidates.
Coincident Upper House By-election
The Lower House election will coincide with a scheduled Upper House by-election in Iwate. This by-election was triggered by the resignation of Megumi Hirose, a former Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) member, following a scandal where state funds meant for her Policy Secretary were misappropriated, with the Secretary seemingly performing no duties.
Prime Minister Ishiba, initially opposed a snap election but changed his stance after pressure from the newly appointed LDP Secretary-General, Mr. Moriyama, the rationale here is presumably to sweep this scandal under the rug by bundling it up with the nationwide election. The LDP is not fielding a candidate to replace Hirose due to the negative fallout from her scandal and the broader issues of financial misconduct involving key party factions. Five other candidates are running, the LDP’s absence compounds a loss of their Upper House representation in this district in the future. The next Upper House election is this summer of 2025.
Surge in Bankruptcies and Economic Challenges in Japan
Over the past three months, Japan reported 4,990 bankruptcies, marking an 18.6% increase compared to the same period last year. The sectors hardest hit are manufacturing, retail, and particularly restaurants. Many of these businesses received government aid during the pandemic but are now struggling to repay low-interest loans as their revenues have not fully recovered.
Contributing Factors:
Higher prices and inflation have significantly affected operational costs. The weak yen has exacerbated the cost of imported goods, increasing the financial burden on businesses. A labor shortage is compounding the problem, especially in service industries like restaurants and retail, where there is a heavy reliance on labor.
Labor Market Issues:
Japan’s declining population is contributing to a shortage of available workers. While there is a noticeable increase in foreign workers, particularly in large cities like Tokyo, the influx is insufficient to meet the labor demands of various sectors.
Declining Real Wages:
Although nominal wages have increased, real wages (adjusted for inflation) have fallen for the first time in three months. This decline in real wages has reduced the purchasing power of Japanese citizens, leading to broader economic strain as households find it harder to manage rising living costs. Not great during an election-cycle.
Justice Minister’s Connections with the Unification Church
Hideki Makihara has been linked to the Unification Church, a religious group with significant influence in Japanese politics, particularly within the Abe Faction of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP). It was revealed that Makihara and his Secretary had made 37 visits to Unification Church related events, a fact that was not fully disclosed during an initial investigation by the LDP. Makihara’s late disclosure about his relationship with the church has raised concerns about transparency and his conduct as a public official.
Government Response:
When questioned about the issue, Prime Minister Ishiba delegated the response to the Deputy Chief Cabinet Secretary, who stated that there would be no investigation into the matter, dismissing it as “old news.” The government’s decision not to further investigate has attracted criticism. However, the issue has been downplayed for now as the election draws near.
Election Context:
The controversy comes at a sensitive time as the LDP prepares for the upcoming election. Makihara, like other members of the Cabinet, will be up for election, and his (ANYONE’S!) association with the Unification Church may influence voter sentiment. The outcome of the election will impact the composition of the Cabinet, with a potential reshuffling of the cards.
Canada Assumes Role in Regional Maritime Security
Last week, the Canadian Coast Guard’s 83 meter long icebreaker, Sir Wilfred Laurier, made a historic visit to Yokohama. This marked the first time a Canadian Coast Guard vessel has visited Japan, signaling a significant step in Canada’s increased involvement in maritime security in the Asia-Pacific region.
Canadian Involvement in Regional Security:
The Canadian Ambassador announced that this visit is the beginning of Canada’s active participation in addressing issues such as illegal fishing in the region. Canada’s actions are seen as part of broader international efforts to secure maritime zones and ensure the rule of law at sea, particularly in the face of increasing Chinese incursions into Japanese waters.
Geopolitical Context:
China’s fishing activities in Japanese waters have been a point of contention. Despite China’s ban on importing Japanese seafood following the release of treated water from Fukushima, Chinese fishing fleets have been raiding Japanese fishing zones. Some observers interpret Canada’s involvement as a counteraction to these Chinese activities, reinforcing international efforts to curb illegal fishing and assert maritime sovereignty. Russia has also joined China in boycotting Japanese seafood as you know, further pressuring Japan’s fishing industry which has led to a huge decline in seafood prices.
Regional Diplomatic Cooperation:
The Canadian move reflects a broader trend of international cooperation in the Asia-Pacific region, where countries like Australia, New Zealand, and the UK have increased their military and security presence. While Canada’s approach may be more diplomatic and focused on patrols and monitoring rather than military strength, it is part of the growing latticework of allies working together to counter regional challenges, particularly in response to Chinese assertiveness.
Economic and Security Implications:
Japan’s fishing industry has suffered a severe impact by the bans from China and Russia, but the United States has stepped in to purchase the excess fish stock. Despite this, overall demand has declined, and prices have dropped. The presence of the Canadian Coast Guard helps to secure fishing zones, reduce illegal fishing, and support Japan’s maritime economy in a period of heightened regional tensions.
Questions & Comments from The Audience Answered Exclusively During the Briefing
- What is the probability of a split occurring within the LDP?
- Could you please explain the influence of corporations and the support that they grant to political parties during an election?
- What is/was the role of the Unification Church during an election process… how about now?
- Can you speak about reports of Ishiba and Chinese Premier Li Qiang agreeing to strategic ties during the ASEAN Summit?
- In light of the recent historic first port call to Japan of the Canadian Coast Guard icebreaker Wilfird Laurier, can you elaborate on the development of joint exercises and cooperation between the Canadian Navy and JMSDF forces in the future?
- Mr Ishiba said during a press conference on the 12th of October that he would work hard to revise the status of forces agreement (SOFA). What exactly does he want to accomplish here?
- Komeito, notoriously the clean-government party, has announced that they will endorse scandal-tainted candidates whereas the LDP will not. How do you read this? Seems unbelievable to me… what is the background?
Are you familiar with “Tokyo on Fire”? Episodes can be found on YouTube “Langley Esquire”: excruciatingly-gained insights sifted over 40 years in-country! Entertainingly presented.
“Japanese Politics One-on-One” episodes are on YouTube “Japan Expert Insights”.
If you gain insight from these briefings, consider a tailored one for your Executive Team or for passing-through-Tokyo heavyweights.
To learn more about advocacy in Japan, read our article “Understanding the Dynamics of Lobbying in Japan.”
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