Here are the most crucial events currently going on in the very exciting realm (whoever thought those words would be so ascribed?) of Japanese politics, delivered by Langley Esquire and Japan Expert Insights.
- Week closes at 149.52 dollars to the Yen.
- Man attacks LDP headquarters with Molotov cocktails, then crashes car into Prime Minister’s Office.
- Lower House Election on 27th. Campaign is underway.
Upcoming Election Landscape and Mechanics
The approval rating for the newly-formed Ishiba cabinet stands at a low 28%, according to a recent Jiji Press report. This figure is alarming compared to past administrations: Kishida’s approval rating stood at 14-15% before he stepped down, and previous prime ministers like Abe and Suga began their terms with approval ratings of 54% and 51%, respectively.
Cabinet Approval and Historical Context
Ishiba’s 28% approval rating is the lowest at the start of any administration since the Mori government, known for its unpopularity.
Comparatively, other recent prime ministers had much stronger starts:
- Abe: 54%
- Suga: 51%
- Kishida: 40%
These numbers reflect a broader dissatisfaction within the electorate, especially in light of the LDP’s handling of the recent slush fund scandal and growing concerns over the economy.
LDP and the Slush Fund Scandal
The key issue overshadowing the election is the LDP’s involvement in the slush fund scandal, which has damaged public trust.
Ishiba has taken a hard stance by not allowing 34 members to double-up and stand in both single-seat constituencies and proportional representation block seats. (Historically this has allowed members who lose their single-member constituency seat to come back.) A further 12 members are receiving no endorsement at all.
Notably, Sanae Takaichi, a key LDP figure who lost to Ishiba in the party leadership race, has openly expressed her dissatisfaction with Ishiba’s leadership. She has refused to accept any party positions and has started endorsing the members ousted by Ishiba, further escalating tensions within the party.
Election Forecast and LDP Mobilization
The LDP faces a significant challenge, with projections suggesting they could lose 50 or more seats. There is talk within the party that they may lose their majority.
The ruling coalition with Komeito may not be enough to secure a stable government, as many expect Komeito to lose seats.
In response, the LDP mobilized its members urgently. This is evidenced by the closure of offices in the Diet compound, signaling an all-hands-on-deck approach to prevent further losses.
Political Maneuvering and Coalition Speculation
If the LDP’s majority is compromised, new political alliances may emerge. Some opposition parties are positioning themselves as potential coalition partners:
- The Democratic People’s Party is seeking opportunities to collaborate with the Constitutional Democratic Party.
- Ishin-no-kai also seems to be positioning itself as a possible coalition partner for the LDP should they fall short of a majority.
Public Sentiment and Polling Data
According to a Jiji Press poll:
- 26% of respondents plan to vote for the LDP.
- 10% support the Constitutional Democratic Party.
- 5.2% favor Komeito.
- 4.3% support Ishin-no-kai.
- 45% of respondents, though critical of the LDP, prefer the party to stay in power, citing the disarray of previous non-LDP governments.
- 27% of respondents favor a change in government.
- 63% represent the swing vote, stating they feel ambivalent and will make their final decision at the polls.
House of Representatives Structure
The Lower House has 465 seats, divided into:
- 289 single-seat districts: In these districts, voters cast their ballot for a specific candidate by writing their name. This is separate from the second vote they cast.
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- 176 proportional representation seats: Voters cast a separate ballot for a party, and candidates from the party’s pre-determined list are elected based on the proportion of votes the party receives.
Prime Minister Ishiba has introduced a significant reform by refusing to endorse 34 LDP members involved in the slush fund scandal. This means that these individuals:
- Will not receive any personal endorsements from Ishiba or party leadership.
- Cannot appear on the proportional representation. In previous elections, losing single-seat candidates could still win a seat through proportional representation. In any event, this will not be the case for these 34 members.
This creates a high-stakes environment for these individuals, who now face the risk of being eliminated entirely from parliament. Without the fallback of proportional representation, they have diminished chances of reelection, especially with the public disdain for candidates tainted by financial misconduct.
Dynamics of Vote Splitting
A key challenge for the opposition parties lies in vote splitting. Many districts feature multiple opposition candidates. This can dilute the anti-LDP vote and result in an LDP candidate winning despite decreased popularity.
Strategic Timing of the Election
Ishiba’s decision to hold the election quickly has hampered the opposition’s ability to form strategic alliances and coordinate candidate nominations. Ideally, opposition parties such as the Constitutional Democratic Party and the Communist Party would refrain from fielding candidates in the same districts to avoid splitting their vote.
The rapid election call limits their ability to negotiate and collaborate, giving the LDP a strategic advantage.
Expected Seat Losses and Coalition Shifts
- Projections indicate that the LDP-Komeito coalition is likely to lose a significant number of seats, with estimates ranging from 50 to 58 seats.
- This raises the possibility of a weakened government or even a shift in power dynamics, where the LDP may need to bring in additional coalition partners to maintain control.
Early Voting Trends and Panic in the LDP
Early voting started immediately after the opening of the election campaign, and its rising popularity is influencing campaign strategies. In the last election, 28% of total votes came in early. Current early voting numbers, however, are causing alarm within the LDP.
- In the previous election, 58 million voters cast their votes in total, with a substantial portion coming from early voters.
Sidenote: Importance of Sound Trucks
A unique feature of Japanese elections is the requirement for voters to write the name of their preferred candidate on the ballot.
To ensure voters know how to correctly write a candidate’s name (in kanji or hiragana), candidates heavily rely on trucks with loudspeakers mounted atop, circulate through neighborhoods repeatedly broadcasting the candidate’s name.
This tactic helps reinforce name recognition and ensures voters can correctly spell the name on the ballot, minimizing invalidated votes.
Questions & Comments from The Audience Answered Exclusively During the Briefing
- Ishiba has taken a step back on making changes to marriage names and same-sex marriage. Presumably to appease more conservative elements of the party. Thoughts?
- How likely is Ishiba to give in to demands from Ishin-no-kai?
- What are your thoughts surrounding possible flashpoints in China-Taiwan tension?
- It’s been 10 years since the regional revitalization program started. Is it working? Do people take it seriously or is it just rhetoric?
- Why do we not see broader issues like a potential Chinese invasion of Taiwan, or Japan’s debt load, taking precedence in the election campaign?
- Could you please remind us of Ishiba’s position on nuclear energy?
Are you familiar with “Tokyo on Fire”? Episodes can be found on YouTube “Langley Esquire”: excruciatingly-gained insights sifted over 40 years in-country! Entertainingly presented.
“Japanese Politics One-on-One” episodes are on YouTube “Japan Expert Insights”.
If you gain insight from these briefings, consider a tailored one for your Executive Team or for passing-through-Tokyo heavyweights.
To learn more about advocacy in Japan, read our article “Understanding the Dynamics of Lobbying in Japan.”
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