Japanese Politics Updates – October 27, 2024

The team of Langley Esquire is pleased to share the summary of the most crucial events going on right now in the ever-changing world of Japanese politics, compiled from Sunday’s briefing produced in collaboration with Japan Expert Insights.

• Week closes at 152.28 dollars to the Yen.
• Voters heading to the Polling Stations TODAY.
• Aiming to convene the Diet on Nov. 7th, but that date might change according to election results… almost certainly to be later.

Today’s Lower House Election Outlook

The LDP, currently holding 256 seats, needs 233 to maintain a simple majority. With coalition partner Komeito providing 32 seats, the coalition enjoys a buffer of about 55 seats over the required threshold. However, polls indicate that they may lose enough seats to fall below this majority, undermining their legislative control.

Committee Control: Should the LDP-Komeito coalition drop below 233 seats, they risk losing their ability to appoint Committee Chairs and pack Committees with their members exclusively, potentially shifting power dynamics within Parliamentary Committees.

October Surprise: Just days before the election, Akahata, a newspaper affiliated with the Japan Communist Party, revealed that 20 million yen in LDP funds was funneled to districts represented by Members implicated in the faction scandal. This revelation weakened public confidence in the LDP’s claims, and those specifically from Prime Minister Ishiba, of reform and transparency.

Voter Impact: In Japan, about 40% of voters typically decide late, potentially to be swayed by last-minute scandals. Early voting accounts for 16%, and thus the remaining votes from this undecided swing-group could significantly impact the final outcome.

Post-Election Scenarios

Coalition-Building and Opposition: With potential losses, the LDP may require additional coalition support. However, opposition parties have voiced reluctance to partner with the LDP, preferring to consider alliances under a Constitutional Democratic Party-led coalition.

Possible Leadership Change: Should the LDP perform poorly, party insiders will hold the top-dog, Mr. Ishiba accountable, potentially forcing him to resign from Prime Ministership. While Ishiba would likely retain his party presidency, a new Prime Minister might be selected from within the LDP.

Strategic Implications

Policy Influence: If the LDP loses control of Committee Chair positions, legislative negotiations with opposition parties will become crucial. Such a situation will complicate the party’s policy agenda.

Leadership Instability: Ongoing scrutiny of Ishiba’s decisions could lead to internal party shifts. It could also open discussions on future leadership even beyond current LDP ranks.

The final election results will clarify the LDP’s path, with the possibility of internal shifts, coalition negotiations, and leadership changes setting the stage for a turbulent political period. The Diet will reconvene within 10 days (Constitutionally required w/in 30 days-of-election), at which time the new balance of power and leadership roles will be solidified.

Recent Escalations in Global Conflicts

Recent escalations involving North Korean troop deployments to support Russian forces in Ukraine and a significant Israeli retaliatory airstrike targeting Iranian military assets. Both developments signify potential shifts in regional power dynamics and international tensions.

North Korean Military Involvement in Ukraine

Deployment of Troops:
Over the past week, intelligence sources revealed that North Korea is preparing to send approximately 10,000 soldiers to Russia for deployment in Ukraine, marking a notable involvement in the ongoing conflict.

Around 3,000 North Korean soldiers are reported to have already reached Russia, where they are stationed and undergoing preparatory activities.

The remaining 7,000 troops are reportedly still in North Korea, completing training programs before their anticipated deployment.

This move is a marked escalation in North Korea’s support for Russia. It potentially increases military pressure on Ukrainian forces and raising concerns about broader international repercussions. North Korea’s active troop involvement signals deeper alliances within the Russia-North Korea axis and may attract further global scrutiny and sanctions.

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Israeli Airstrikes on Iranian Military Targets

On Saturday, Israel conducted an extensive air operation involving 100 jets that launched airstrikes against Iranian targets. The operation specifically focused on military installations and missile production facilities.

Israel’s intention was to avoid escalating further tensions by selectively-targeting military assets while sparing Iranian energy infrastructure.

Although the Israeli government has declared its retaliatory actions complete, there remains uncertainty over Iran’s response. Israel’s measured approach in avoiding civilian and energy targets may influence Iran’s level of retaliation, though the situation remains volatile.

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Both developments represent significant escalations in their respective regions:

North Korean Troop Deployment: This action has the potential to increase Russian force capabilities in Ukraine. Such an increase in potential will complicate the conflict landscape and international diplomatic efforts.

Israeli Airstrikes: Israel’s strikes demonstrate its tactical response capability while attempting to mitigate wider hostilities by focusing on military, rather than civilian, infrastructure.

These events underscore an intensifying global security environment, with potential ripple effects on international relations and ongoing conflicts.

Japan’s Evolving Defense Capabilities and Constitutional Implications

There have been developments in Japan’s military capabilities. We see them specifically the refitting of two helicopter carriers, the Kaga and the Izumo, to accommodate U.S. F-35 stealth fighter jets. These changes are sparking discussions around Japan’s constitutional restrictions on military capabilities, especially in the context of regional security threats.

Key Developments

Refitting of Japanese Helicopter Carriers:

Japan has modified its second helicopter carriers, the Kaga (after adapting the Izumo last year). This has enabled them to accommodate and launch U.S. F-35 stealth fighters.

Last Sunday an F35B successfully landed on the Kaga making use of the short takeoff and vertical landing capabilities of this variant of the F35.

Originally intended solely for helicopter operations, the modified carriers now closely resemble conventional aircraft carriers in capability. This marks a significant shift in Japan’s defense posture.

Constitutional Restrictions and Defensive Posture:

Japan’s constitution mandates a primarily defensive military capability. Consequently, Japan’s Self-Defense Forces (JSDF) traditionally avoid acquiring or deploying weapons with offensive potential.

Helicopters operate closer to the mother ship and are considered less offensive than jets, which can operate more independently. However, the addition of F-35s introduces a new dynamic, potentially blurring the line between offensive and defensive capabilities.

While the stealth fighters belong to the U.S., their presence on Japanese vessels raises questions about how Japan’s constitution interprets this evolution in capability.

Political and Economic Context:

PM Ishiba (formerly Defense Minister) and other officials have suggested updates to Japan’s Status of Forces Agreement and military budget allocations.

Japan’s defense budget is already seeing a shift, already increasing from 1% to 2% of GDP. This signals a more proactive defense posture (with some offensive overtones such as first-strike capabilities).

Japan’s recent partnerships with countries like the U.K., Australia, and Italy, as well as participation in the F-35 program, underscore Japan’s strategic efforts to strengthen alliances amidst growing security challenges.

Strategic Implications and Regional Security Concerns

Regional Threats:
The modifications come amid increasing tensions in the Indo-Pacific, notably concerning China’s intentions toward Taiwan. Japan’s evolving defense capabilities reflect its response to regional volatility and the need for flexible, modern defense systems.

Constitutional and Public Considerations:
The deployment of stealth fighters on Japanese ships may prompt a constitutional debate on the JSDF’s role and its balance between offensive and defensive responsibilities. We expect public and legislative discourse as Japan navigates this evolving defense landscape.

Defense Partnerships:
The strengthening of Japan’s military alliances, both through bilateral agreements and collective defense programs, underscores Japan’s intent to bolster its security capabilities in cooperation with allied nations.

The transformation of Japan’s Kaga and Izumo carriers marks a critical step in its defense evolution. It raises constitutional considerations and reflecting broader strategic recalibrations. As Japan strengthens its defense posture in response to regional threats, these developments may lead to significant shifts in its defense policy and constitutional interpretation, particularly if threats from regional actors, like China, continue to escalate.

Questions & Comments from The Audience Answered Exclusively During the Briefing

• Is it possible that Ishiba stays on as LDP President but leaves the position of Prime Minister to someone else?
• Who among the LDP’s leadership is best placed to help negotiate a coalition agreement?
• Are statements by Ishin-no-kai and DPP leaders expressing reluctance to join a coalition, merely serving to enhance their bargaining position?
• Do you see Sanae Takaichi’s profile rising regardless of whether she ascends to PM or not?
• If the DPP joins with the LDP, can they (DPP) still insist on major Cabinet positions appointments?
• Would an unstable coalition facilitate yet another inconclusive election?