Japanese Politics Updates – September 8, 2024

Welcome to the 187th episode of “Japanese Politics One-on-One”.

Here are the events in Japanese politics that happened last week, served hot-off-the-Press and JUST for your personal consumption!

• • The LDP election has not officially started yet but things are heating up! The race starts on Thursday and candidates are announcing their intentions to run;

• • Prime Minister Kishida came back yesterday from a 2-day visit to Seoul. During the visit, he met with President Yoon as a critical component of Japan’s geopolitics, the new PM will have to take-on these dicy kinds of international commitments;

• • Pope Francis is traveling throughout Asia for two weeks, though not to Japan;

• • 2+2 talks involving the Foreign and Defence Ministers in Australia Thursday/Friday. Two weeks following from the 2+2 in India. These on-talks are strong, decisive, global, and provide an opportunity for Japan to form a unified position in dealing with China;

• • The Constitutional Democratic Party (CDP)’s race began yesterday; four candidates, to culminate on the 23rd (four days before the LDP’s, five days before Komeito’s);

• • Komeito Leader for 15 years, Natsuo Yamaguchi, has decided to resign, triggering an election there;

• • The Kishida faction (Kochikai) has formally dissolved, disbanding as a political entity. The second LDP faction to do so after the Moriyama faction. Despite having seemingly little involvement with the slush-fund kickback scandal (like the Moriyama Faction),  its 67 year history comes to an end. As a result, it leaves 46 members who are now officially independent;

• • On September 24th, 3 days before the LDP election, Dan Harada & Timothy Langley will present a pre-election discussion and analysis over a brief, special lunchtime briefing.

Let’s see what else transpired during this dramatic week:

LDP Election Overview

The upcoming LDP election is highly anticipated, and it has six candidates now in the running. Last week, announcements were delayed due to a typhoon, but we now have three confirmed candidates: Mr. Hayashi, Mr. Motegi, and Mr. Koizumi, with Koizumi’s Press Conference in particular on Friday generating significant media attention.

Key Points:

• • Koizumi in the running: his announcement came in a press conference where he detailed his policies. These include calling for a snap election immediately upon election, a stance shared by candidates Takayuki Kobayashi, Ishiba, and Kono. Currently, there’s speculation about additional candidates quickly jumping-in, like Katsunobu Kato, Yoko Kamikawa, Seiko Noda, and possibly Sanae Takaichi, but the deadline for securing 20 endorsements approaches this Wednesday. Seiko Noda and Sanae Takaichi face challenges securing the  endorsements required.

• • The general consensus in Nagatacho is that the main contenders are Ishiba, Kono, and Koizumi, because they are backed by significant political figures. At the same time others, including Motegi, do not seem to be polling as strongly. On the 27th the new leader will have just days to form a Cabinet and is likely to call a snap election to affirm their policies.

• • The timing of the general election could coincide with an Upper House by-election on October 20th, following the resignation of Megumi Hirose. A second, though a later date of October 27th is also possible to give the new prime minister just a bit more time to prepare. Simultaneously, Komeito, LDP’s coalition partner, is also undergoing leadership changes, with long-serving Yamaguchi stepping down, this could influence coalition dynamics.

• • The election process involves two rounds. The first round includes 367 Diet members and 367 votes distributed among the million+ registered LDP members casting their votes. If no candidate wins 50% in the first round (exceedingly improbable), the top two candidates proceed to the second round. In the second round, the weight shifts more heavily to Diet members. This is because the million+ LDP members’ votes are reduced from 367 to the 47 Prefectures (the amalgamation of their votes depending on prefecture) as compared to the LDP Diet Members who will STILL wield 367 votes (sorry if this sounds complicated). With multiple candidates from the same factions for the first time, this election is particularly complex. What is left of the former factions will still play a key role in determining the next LDP President and, thus, Prime Minister. There are a lot of moving parts.

Constitutional Democratic Party (CDP) Leadership Race

The CDP faces a competitive leadership race with four announced candidates. The current leader, Mr. Izumi, is under significant pressure due to strong opposition. His challengers include:

• • Yoshihiko Noda (former PM) – returning to seek leadership after his previous endorsement of Izumi.

• • Yukio Edano (previous CDP Leader) – appointed Izumi as his successor, now vying for a second term. 

• • Harumi Yoshida (first-time runner, a first term Lower House Member, and female!) – received 20 endorsements from CDP Diet Members.

Key Points

• • Mr. Izumi’s position is precarious: he contends with well-established figures and factionalism within the party, a key influence is Ichiro Ozawa, a noted political figure, genius even, of the 20th century within the CDP. He is expected to lend his endorsement to Mr. Noda.

• • Party Elections Timelines: the CDP will conclude its leadership election several days before the LDP’s election and Komeito’s leader selection, indicating a busy period in Japanese politics.

Upcoming Developments

Nippon-Ishin-no-Kai

• • Hyogo Governor Motohiko Saito from Ishin-no-Kai faces severe criticism for alleged power harassment. This includes claims of abusive behavior and demands for special treatment. In addition, this controversy is compounded by two suicides within his administration.

• • No-Confidence Motion: both the Constitutional Democratic Party and the LDP in Hyogo are expected to support a no-confidence motion against the Governor, potentially leading to his removal.

 

Political Shifts and Challenges

• • General Election Dynamics: the reallocation of parliamentary seats by shifting members between districts, will influence election outcomes. This gerrymandering, affecting 10 districts, each gaining and losing a member, will play a critical role.

• • Scandals: the LDP faces scrutiny over the kickback and Unification-Church-related scandals. Although these issues have been less prominent recently, they are likely to resurface as central topics during the election.

 

Upper House By-Election

• • The by-election for scandal-hit Megumi Hirose’s Upper House seat will take place on October 20th. Consequently, the next Prime Minister may be willing to brush this under the carpet by scheduling the general election to coincide with the by-election. A later date of October 27th, however, would allow the Prime Minister more preparation time.

Geopolitical Tensions – Chinese Survey Vessel

Recently, Japan faced another Chinese incursion. This time it involved a survey vessel, following on from a previous incident involving a reconnaissance plane. The survey vessel, a military device, sailed through the Straits of Kagoshima. While international traffic can legally pass through this strait under “innocent passage,” Japan took issue with the vessel’s activities, which included seabed surveying and temperature evaluations—suggesting it was more than just innocent transit.

Key Points

• • Growing Regional Tensions: some see these incursions as part of China’s increasing assertiveness in the region. The incident follows a broader pattern of military actions that challenge Japan’s territorial sovereignty.

• • Collective Defense Initiatives: in response, Japan and its allies, led by the United States, are strengthening collective defense strategies. Military assets are being shared, and reciprocal rights for stationing troops, aircraft, and naval vessels in Japan are being established. Aiming to deter any potential Chinese military action.

Looking Forward

Some may see Kishida’s recent visit to Seoul as his last hurrah. The incoming Prime Minister of Japan faces a challenging agenda with several key events and responsibilities. The new PM will likely face a general election around the same time as the U.S. presidential election, which concludes on November 5th. Additionally, he or she will have to deal with some significant international commitments:

• • ASEAN Plus Three Meetings: scheduled in Laos on October 8th.
    • APEC Summit: taking place in Peru in mid-November.
    • • G20 Summit: held in Brazil on November 18th. Attendance is mandatory for the Japanese Prime Minister.

 

Key Points:

• • The race for the new Prime Minister includes several contenders, with Ishiba, Kono, and Koizumi emerging as strong candidates. Initially, there will likely be eight or nine contenders, narrowing to two for the second round.

• • Strategizing: the race is expected to be highly competitive, with shifts in political attitudes and strategies. Candidates will likely begin positioning themselves for key roles, such as Foreign Minister or Finance Minister.

• • The new Prime Minister will need significant geopolitical skills to manage both domestic and international responsibilities.

Questions from the Audience Addressed Exclusively During the Briefing

• • What is the split of public and private financing in parliamentary elections? Can you please explain a bit more about private financing (the candidate’s money or that of his supporters) vs public financing.

• • Politicians have to raise money to compete and survive. Why is the Japanese public so allergic to politicians raising money?

• • What is your sense of the balance between those running on a platform that will maintain Kishida’s initiatives versus those who are out to repudiate them?

• • Furthermore, do you see any substantive policy differences between the top 3 candidates that will show up in the government that eventually forms?

• • Why can’t Taro Kono get ahead? Doesn’t he have the credentials and the street cred?

• • A leadership candidate needs to receive 20 nominations from LDP Diet members. What is the rationale behind choosing who to nominate?

• • What are your thoughts on the recent decision by US President Joe Biden to cancel the Nippon Steel acquisition of US Steel?

• • Have any LDP candidates mentioned their position on foreign affairs?

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