Japanese Politics Updates – September 1, 2024

Here are the events in Japanese politics that happened just THIS last week, served hot-off-the-Press and JUST for your personal consumption!

• • The dollar-yen exchange rate is beginning to maintain stability: Friday’s close was $/¥146.20, very close to last week’s close;

• • The LDP election kicks off on September 12th—just 12 days away! We can expect significant changes as a result;

• • The Constitutional Democratic Party is also holding their leadership election, with five candidates now in the leadership race;

• • Hyogo Governor Motohiko Saito is under scrutiny due to a “bullying” accusation, presenting Ishin-no-kai with consternation for backing him;

• • The August deadline for Ministries to submit their budgets has passed… we are examining each of them now;

• • In a rare move, a spyplane from China violated Japanese airspace;

• • Typhoon No. 10 is sweeping through Kumamoto and nearby prefectures in southern Japan; with a potential brush past Tokyo Monday.

So, let’s dive deeper and see what else transpired during this dramatic week:

Update: LDP Election Begins in 12 Days

Prime Minister Kishida has decided not to run in the upcoming presidential election, as you know, pitting several important leadership races and upsetting political developments altogether. Truly, a wild time in Japanese politics:

Key Points

• • This election is set to start in 11 days and culminating on September 27th (Friday). It marks the beginning of a long 15-day campaign. The race is already heating up, with the potential for seven, eight, or even nine candidates. The field, while crowded, is beginning to stabilize, as each candidate must secure 20 Diet Member endorsements.

• • This requirement is not exclusive to the LDP; the Constitutional Democratic Party (CDP) is also in the midst of a similar race, with each candidate also needing 20 endorsements to qualify.

• • Not to be outdone, the Komeito party is ALSO undergoing its own leadership transition as well, with Natsuo Yamaguchi, 15 years in the position, recently deciding not to run for re-election. Unlike the usual uncontested elections where the leader is chosen by acclamation, Komeito is also engaging in a more competitive process this time.

• • The Komeito convention is expected to overlap with the LDP’s 15-day campaign, potentially ending just a day after the LDP concludes its race. This means that both Komeito and the LDP will see new leaders emerge simultaneously. Interestingly, Komeito has extended a polite invitation to the LDP’s new leader (whoever that may be), signaling a continuation of cooperation between the two parties. Or maybe not?

• • Despite Kishida not running, his faction remains active. Two members from his faction, Yoshimasa Hayashi (Chief Cabinet Spokesman) and Yōko Kamikawa (Foreign Minister), are potential candidates. Both have indicated their intention to enter the race, even though they postponed their formal announcements due to the typhoon and the subsequent media focus on the weather.

As the leadership race unfolds, the political landscape in Japan is poised for significant changes. Currently, multiple parties (LDP, Komeito, CDP) are undergoing leadership transitions simultaneously.

Delegation Led by Nikai Visits China

A high-profile delegation led by Toshihiro Nikai, was in China for a three-day visit. The visit focused on trade, investment, and addressed ongoing issues related to Japan’s treated-water discharge into the Pacific Ocean. Concurrently, U.S. National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan is also in China, attempting significant diplomatic engagement.

Key Points

• • Nikai’s trip aims to address trade and investment issues and mitigate the impact of the Chinese boycott of Japanese food products that was prompted by Japan’s discharge of treated-water from the Fukushima damaged nuclear reactor into the Pacific Ocean.

• • However, the visit has been overshadowed by recent tensions. These include a violation of Japanese airspace by a Chinese reconnaissance plane on Tuesday, which has strained the atmosphere of the discussions.

• • This incident occurred simultaneously with another significant visit. Jake Sullivan, the U.S. National Security Advisor, was also in China for three days. This marks the first visit by a U.S. National Security Advisor to China since 2016. It also highlights the heightened level of diplomatic engagement between the two nations.

The concurrent high-level visits and regional tensions highlight a period of intense diplomatic and strategic activity in East Asia. Nikai’s efforts to resolve trade and diplomatic disputes, coupled with Sullivan’s visit, reflect broader concerns about regional stability and security. This period of heightened activity suggests that significant developments could be imminent in international relations and regional security.

U.S. Delegations Visit Japan

This week, Prime Minister Kishida’s schedule has been full with high-level diplomatic engagements, reflecting the intensifying focus on U.S.-Japan relations amid growing concerns about China’s influence.

Key Points

• • A significant delegation from the U.S. House of Representatives’ Select Committee on Strategic Competition between the United States and the Chinese Communist Party visited Japan. It was led by Chairman John Moolenaar, Republican from Michigan. The dialogue centered on how Japan and the United States can coordinate their efforts in response to China’s assertive actions on the global stage.

• • Adding to the diplomatic momentum, Senator William Hagerty, who previously served as the U.S. Ambassador to Japan under Donald Trump, led a delegation of U.S. senators to Japan. The delegation focused on trade and investment issues and undersced the importance of economic ties between the two nations. Senator Hagerty’s leadership in these discussions highlights the strategic significance of the visit, as delegations of U.S. senators do not frequently travel to Japan, especially with such a focus on reinforcing bilateral trade relations.

Undeniably, these visits have kept Prime Minister Kishida fully occupied, as the U.S. delegations engaged in crucial discussions that could shape the future of U.S.-Japan cooperation. The convergence of these high-level diplomatic efforts underscores the critical nature of the U.S.-Japan alliance in the face of China’s growing global influence.

Japan to Expand Self-Defense Facilities and Defense Budget

Prime Minister Kishida has approved the formal designation of additional airports and ports for use by Japan’s Self-Defense Forces (SDF) and, by extension, the U.S. military. Under the current circumstances, this move is part of a broader strategy to enhance defense capabilities and cooperation between Japan and the United States.

Key Points

• • Prime Minister Kishida has approved the formal designation of three more airports and nine ports for use by Japan’s Self-Defense Forces (SDF). This decision marks a substantial increase, nearly 50%, in the number of facilities available for military use, bringing the total to 28.

• • These facilities are also designated for use by U.S. military forces, particularly in emergencies or contingency planning.

• • Undoubtedly, the integration of these facilities into military operations is part of a broader trend of closer U.S.-Japan defense collaboration. For example, Japanese companies have been authorized to maintain, supply, and repair U.S. military planes and ships. This is a significant step toward the merging of the two nations’ military capabilities. 

• • In line with these changes, Japan’s defense budget has seen a historic increase. The current defense budget is the largest in Japan’s postwar history, although only slightly surpassing last year’s record-breaking budget.

• • Japan has committed to spending 2% of its GDP on defense over a five-year plan. The current year marks the third year of this plan and expenditures are significantly higher than in the previous year. 

The trend suggests that Year Four will continue this expansion, reflecting Japan’s growing focus on strengthening its defense capabilities. These developments signal a period of rapid change for Japan’s military and diplomatic strategies. The increased military budget, the expansion of military facilities, and the deepening ties with the U.S. all point to a Japan that is preparing for a more assertive role on the global stage.

Japan to Establish Directorship for Disaster Prevention and Response

In a significant move towards strengthening Japan’s disaster preparedness, Prime Minister Kishida has approved a new policy establishing a directorship for disaster prevention and response. This initiative marks a crucial step in unifying and coordinating disaster management efforts across the entire government. It also addresses long-standing gaps in Japan’s response framework.

Key Points

• • Despite Japan’s frequent exposure to natural disasters, the absence of a centralized disaster management structure has been a notable weakness. The 2011 Tōhoku earthquake and tsunami, often referred to as the “3.11 triple-disaster,” notably exposed significant flaws in Japan’s disaster response. 

• • This need eventually culminated in the creation of the new directorship with approximately 1,000 bureaucrats whowill assist (double-duty to their current roles) in this critical effort.

• • This new policy is particularly relevant when we consider Japan’s vulnerability to natural disasters, which range from earthquakes to typhoons. The recent earthquake in the Noto Peninsula, which occurred over a year ago, still leaves many affected areas without adequate services and facilities. The new directorship aims to address these issues by ensuring that disaster response is more efficient, timely, and comprehensive.

Update: Upcoming LDP Presidential Election

The race for the leadership of Japan’s ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) approaches. Meanwhile, Prime Minister Kishida’s decision not to run has set the stage for a highly competitive election. The campaign, which starts in 12 days and runs for 15 days, will culminate on the last Friday of September. Although the field is expected to be crowded, only three candidates have formally announced their bids so far.

Key Points

• • Here are the contenders to have already announced their candidacy:
    • Takayuki Kobayashi: The first to announce his candidacy, Kobayashi made his move two weeks ago. He has positioned himself as a strong contender early on.
    • Shigeru Ishiba: A veteran politician known for his military expertise and past leadership roles within the LDP, Ishiba is aiming to capitalize on his experience.
    • • Taro Kono: Kono, with his affable personality and strong command of English, stands out as a charismatic candidate. His father, a former Speaker of the House and LDP President, adds to his political pedigree.

• • Several other prominent figures are expected to announce their candidacies, though some have delayed their announcements due to the recent typhoon:
    • Sanae Takaichi: Set to announce on the 9th, Takaichi is a prominent conservative figure in the party.
    • Toshimitsu Motegi: The LDP Secretary-General plans to announce on the 4th, positioning himself as a key contender.

• • • Shinjiro Koizumi: With significant public appeal and movie-star charisma, Koizumi’s announcement on the 6th is highly anticipated.
    • • Yoshimasa Hayashi: The Chief Cabinet Secretary will announce on the 3rd, bringing his extensive experience in government to the race.

• • Candidates need 20 endorsements from LDP members to officially enter the race. This requirement has proven challenging, especially with so many candidates vying for support:
    • Katsunobu Kato and Yoko Kamikawa: Both are struggling to secure enough endorsements. While Kamikawa, currently the Foreign Minister, is particularly notable as a strong female candidate, she has admitted difficulty in gathering the necessary support.
    • Aoyama Shigeharu: From the Upper House, he is also working on securing endorsements and some expect him to be a contender.

• • • Ken Saito: Considering running but has yet to finalize his decision.
    • • Seiko Noda: Despite her accomplishments, Noda is also facing challenges in obtaining endorsements, which may ultimately prevent her from running.

The LDP has 366 Diet members, and with multiple candidates competing for endorsements, the competition is fierce. As the race unfolds, the LDP’s internal dynamics will play a crucial role in determining the next leader. The candidates’ ability to secure endorsements, appeal to party members, and present compelling visions for Japan’s future will shape the outcome of this closely watched election.

Update: Upcoming CDP Leadership Election

The Constitutional Democratic Party (CDP) will hold its leadership election on the 23rd, just days before the LDP announces its own leadership results on the 27th. This scheduling mirrors the previous election cycle, where the CDP’s election was overshadowed by the LDP’s, a situation they aim to avoid this time.

Key Candidates

• • Kenta Izumi: The current leader of the CDP, Izumi took over from Yukio Edano about three years ago. Despite his efforts to steer the party, Izumi is now facing a challenge from within as Edano, the party’s founder and former leader, has decided to contest the leadership.

• • Yukio Edano: Former leader of the CDP and a founding member of the party. He advocates for a possible coalition with the LDP if the ruling party loses significantly in the next election, aiming to secure a majority and influence policy decisions.

• • Yoshihiko Noda: Noda, a former Prime Minister who led Japan during the challenging period of the 3.11 triple disaster, is also entering the race. He advocates for a clean break from the LDP and a rejection of alliances with the Japan Communist Party. 

The CDP faces the daunting task of positioning itself as a viable alternative to the LDP in the next general election. The party’s platform, initially crafted by Edano, emphasizes progressive policies on gender equality, multiculturalism, and climate action. However, Noda seeks to steer the party towards appealing to disillusioned conservative voters, potentially broadening the party’s base.

The CDP’s internal divisions reflect broader strategic debates within the party. While some members, like Edano and Izumi, are open to working with other opposition parties or even forming a coalition with the LDP, others, including Noda, advocate for a more independent and reformist approach.

Polling and Popularity

• • Yoshihiko Noda: Currently polling at around 25%, observers see Noda as a serious contender due to his experience and leadership credentials.

• • Yukio Edano: Slightly ahead of Noda, Edano has around 27% support, benefiting from his role as a party founder and his established reputation.

• • Kenta Izumi: Despite being the current leader, Izumi is lagging significantly in the polls, with only 7% support, underscoring the challenges he faces in maintaining his leadership position.

Update: Nippon Ishin no Kai

Ishin-no-Kai, the political party centered in Osaka & Hyogo Prefectures, has been experiencing a decline in influence recently. This waning support is concerning for the party, especially in light of recent events such as the loss of their candidate in the Mino City mayoral election last weekend. This marks the first time an incumbent from Ishin has lost and indicates a potential trend of declining voter confidence.

Key Points

• • In response to these challenges, Ishin-no-Kai has decided to hold high-level meetings twice a month to strategize on how to strengthen and revitalize the party.

• • The party is also dealing with the implications of the Hyogo Prefecture Governor’s race. Although both Ishin and the LDP endorsed the governor, his ambiguous affiliation with Ishin creates uncertainty about the party’s overall influence.

• • As Japan anticipates a new Prime Minister shortly thereafter, there is speculation about a national election before the end of the year. As a result, the LDP may use this moment to solidify its leadership with public endorsement. Ishin-no-Kai will need to navigate this political landscape carefully, especially as the U.S. presidential elections on November 5th will distinctly further influence Japan’s political dynamics.

Questions from the Audience Addressed Exclusively During the Briefing

• • Given that former PM Noda Yoshihiko expelled DPJ members for reasons like voting against the Party Whip, shouldn’t he be held accountable for such anti-democratic actions before running for Leader again?

• • Japan needs a leader who can stand strong against China, the USA, and others. Kono’s confident and clear English suggests he’s no pushover. What do you think?

• • I’ve heard that popularity among the LDP and the general public doesn’t necessarily determine the outcome. What factors actually influence the election? Is it factional support, backing from key figures, or personal relationships?

• • They say history moves in 100-year cycles. Is anyone else sensing echoes of the interwar years of the 20th century with all this geopolitical instability?

• • Earlier this week, China breached Japanese airspace, and yesterday, a Chinese Navy survey ship entered Japan’s territorial waters. What do you think is China’s purpose in doing this? Do you see this as a one-time event, or could it become a regular occurrence, similar to what we’ve seen with Taiwan?

• • Which prime minister do you think is best equipped to confront Russian President Putin?

• • Former New Jersey Governor Chris Christie is set to teach a course at Yale titled “How to Run a Political Campaign.” Would a course like this benefit Japanese college students? Who do you think would be the ideal teacher for this topic in Japan?

• • Will the silly antics and fringe candidates we saw in the Tokyo Metropolitan Governor elections also show up in the next parliamentary elections?

Are you familiar with “Tokyo on Fire”? Episodes are available on YouTube “Langley Esquire”: excruciatingly-gained insights sifted over 40 years in-country! Entertainingly presented.

 “Japanese Politics One-on-One” episodes are on YouTube “Japan Expert Insights”.

Our goal for producing these briefings is to make you better informed and better prepared to turn everyday challenges in Japan into lifetime opportunities. Tune-in every week to do that AND to keep ahead of the constantly swirling curve!

If you gain insight from these briefings, consider a tailored one for your Executive Team or for passing-through-Tokyo heavyweight