Langley Esquire and Japan Expert Insights have the pleasure to deliver the synopsis of “Japanese Politics One-on-One” #178.
What happened during the week of July 1st in brief:
- In Japan, July 1st marks 70 years since the establishment of the Japanese Self-Defense Forces.
- The Prime Minister is currently on a nationwide tour that started on Friday.
- Today is election day for the Tokyo Governor.
- Although it’s not officially confirmed, the race for Prime Minister will likely begin around September 8th and culminate in a vote on September 20th.
- Bank notes have been revamped and issued this week. Denominations include 10,000-yen notes, 5,000-yen notes, and 1,000-yen notes. The Prime Minister visited the Bank of Japan, a rare occurrence in recent decades, on occasion of the new notes.
- The yen stands at $/¥160.74 today, and policymakers are concerned about how to address this as inflation continues and real wages decline.
So, let’s dive deeper into this and what-else transpired during this dramatic past week:
Sanae Takaichi: Possible Contender of the LDP Leadership Race?
The Diet concluded its session two weeks ago, leading to significant activity behind the scenes. Both former LDP Secretary General Shigeru Ishiba and Digital Minister Taro Kono have hinted at their intentions to run for Prime Minister. Prime Minister Kishida hasn’t been open about his plans to run. There’s considerable movement in the background.
You might remember economic security minister Sanae Takaichi, a candidate in the last prime ministerial race. She proved particularly popular. As the economic security minister, she travels and speaks publicly, much like the Prime Minister. So far, Takaichi has received a key cabinet post. She’s also releasing a book on economic security tomorrow. This date coincides with the second anniversary of former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s assassination. Expect considerable media coverage reflecting on his legacy, his contributions to Japanese politics, and the scandals he was involved in. Abe remains the longest-serving post-war Prime Minister in Japanese history, and his influence is still widely present.
Alliance between Japan and the Philippines Set to Formalize
Japan and the Philippines will formalize the potential alliance between under the “2-plus-2” framework tomorrow, when the two countries sign an agreement.
This agreement will establish reciprocal access rights, allowing both the Philippine military and the Japanese Self-Defense Forces unprecedented access to each other’s territories. Reciprocal access rights have gained popularity globally, with countries like the United Kingdom, Australia, and the United States already implementing similar arrangements under status of forces agreements since World War II. Expect detailed coverage of this development in the press by Tuesday, highlighting the implications and specifics of this landmark agreement.
Sexual Offense Cases Involve US personnel in Okinawa
The issue of sexual assaults committed by American soldiers has been a persistent problem since the American forces took control of Okinawa. The situation has recently escalated when an American airman sexually assaulted and kidnapped an underage Japanese girl in December. Although he was indicted in March, the incident went unreported to the Japanese authorities. This was until it became public a few weeks ago, causing a significant uproar. The local community and officials were outraged and have questioned why such a serious crime against an Okinawan citizen wasn’t promptly reported.
The recent assault case is not an isolated incident. Reports have surfaced that there were five other crimes by American soldiers in the past few months. There were no reports to Okinawan authorities about any of them. This lack of communication and accountability has fueled further outrage and resentment.
Japan’s Olympic Team Leaves for Paris
The Japanese Olympic team departed for Paris last week. With a record-breaking delegation of 400 athletes, this marked the largest contingent ever sent by Japan to an Olympic Games. This achievement surpassed their previous record of 339 athletes at the Beijing Summer Olympics in 2008. As anticipation builds for the upcoming Paris Olympics, set to commence in just 19 days, all eyes are on Japan as they continue their journey on the global stage of athletic excellence. Stay tuned for more updates and highlights as this remarkable journey unfolds.
Defense Ministry Unveils New AI Policy
The Defense Ministry recently unveiled a groundbreaking AI policy aimed at revolutionizing the capabilities of Japan’s Self-Defense Forces. This strategic initiative marks a pivotal shift to integrating artificial intelligence across military operations in response to evolving global challenges, particularly from China and the United States.
Facing recruitment challenges and perceptions among the public, the Self-Defense Forces seek to enhance their technological edge through AI advancements. This policy overhaul focuses on seven key areas, including the detection and identification of targets, intelligence collection and analysis, and the utilization of unmanned military assets which will most likely include autonomous vehicles and drones.
Campaign for the LDP Presidential Race
Prime Minister Kishida remains on uncertain ground as the countdown to the upcoming election looms large. Scheduled for September 20th, with campaigning likely to commence on September 8th, the race for the LDP presidency is intensifying. Potential candidates must secure 20 endorsements to qualify, with notable figures like Ishiba, Kono, Takaichi, and Motegi emerging as likely contenders alongside the current Prime Minister.
Among them, Takaichi faces a pivotal moment, seeking to avoid a repeat of past outcomes.
As the election date approaches, the landscape promises intrigue and fierce competition, setting the stage for a defining moment in Japanese political leadership.
Implications of the Tokyo Gubernatorial Election for the LDP
Today’s gubernatorial election in Tokyo also includes voting for nine vacant seats in the Tokyo Metropolitan Government. Tokyo, a major economic powerhouse generating GDP surpassing that of six surrounding countries, plays a crucial role in Japan’s economy. The governorship of Tokyo, often likened in importance to the prime minister’s role but with less public scrutiny, while still wielding substantial influence over economic policies and governance.
Today’s election stands as a critical test for political parties. Among the 127 seats in the Metropolitan Government, the LDP holds 27. Meanwhile, significant blocs by other conservative parties like Koike’s Tokyo First party hold 25 seats, and Komeito holds 23 seats. Furthermore, the LDP, aiming to reclaim seats lost in recent elections to the Constitutional Democratic Party and independents, seeks to secure and possibly expand its current holdings. In other words, today is a test for the LDP to see if they can manage to keep 5 out of the 9 seats they held before and perhaps even gain more seats.
Implications of the Tokyo Gubernatorial Election for the CDP
Today’s Tokyo gubernatorial election also holds substantial implications for the Constitutional Democratic Party (CDP). The CDP fielded candidates in all nine vacant seats and sees this election as an opportunity to consolidate its recent electoral gains. Having secured consecutive victories in previous elections, a strong showing today would further bolster their position ahead of their upcoming their own presidential election in September.
Stay tuned for updates as the results of today’s election unfold, promising to impact the political landscape in Japan significantly.
Prime Minister Kishida’s Schedule to Be Packed with Traveling
Meanwhile, Prime Minister Kishida is actively engaging across Japan to bolster his image. Recently, he visited Yamanashi and will speak in Ishikawa tomorrow, part of a nationwide effort to connect with citizens.
A lot of effort will also be put on emphasizing his extensive experience as the longest-serving foreign minister. On the international stage, Kishida will participate in the G7 and host the Pacific Island nations in Tokyo from the 16th to the 18th of this month. This highlights Japan’s diplomatic initiatives. The Pacific Island nations’ visit is pivotal, as Japan seeks to outline commitments in infrastructure and development, and therefore counter China’s growing influence in the region.
Another Item to the Itinerary: Possible Cabinet Reshuffle?
The Prime Minister faces significant challenges, primarily centered around the economy. Announcements from RENGO have celebrated a 5.1% increase in wages during recent negotiations. The reality of inflation, however, has eroded real wages. Over the past six months, the economy has contracted by 2.9%. This has impacted consumer spending and travel habits both domestically and internationally.
To bolster his administration’s standing, Prime Minister Kishida could consider strategic options, including a potential cabinet reshuffle. This move aims to inject fresh momentum and strengthen his team’s effectiveness. This is particularly important as his current cabinet lacks cohesion and robust public support.
As the countdown to the LDP’s presidential election continues, observers watch for signals of stability or upheaval within Kishida’s administration. While a cabinet reshuffle remains uncertain, its potential implications underscore the delicate balance of power and ambition within Japan’s political elite.
US to Bolster its Military Presence in Japan
Last week, the United States Department of Defense announced a significant $10 billion investment to bolster its military presence in Japan. This investment will help the country focus on enhancing air defense capabilities. This initiative is slated for rapid implementation over just a few years. It not only underscores the urgency but also the scale of the endeavor. The upgrade plan includes replacing 48 F15C/D fighters with 36 advanced F15EX jets, transitioning from fourth to fifth-generation aircraft technology.
Simultaneously, the Marines will expand their F35B stealth fighter fleet in Iwakuni, affirming a commitment to bolstering Japan’s defense capabilities. A spokesperson from the US Defense Department emphasized that these actions are a testament to the unwavering alliance between the US and Japan. They demonstrate resolute support and collaborative efforts in regional security.
Against the backdrop of Japan’s own defense budget increase from 1% to 2% and ongoing trilateral efforts with Italy and Britain to develop seventh-generation jets, the strategic alignment between the US and Japan grows stronger. This alliance faces scrutiny and anticipation amidst potential shifts in US administration, prompting discussions and concerns within Japan’s political circles.
China Seizes Fishing Boat in Taiwanese Territory
China recently seized a fishing trawler near its claimed jurisdiction, just outside its exclusive economic zone. This move, which included imposing a fishing ban in the area, marks a provocative shift in Chinese maritime enforcement tactics.
Observers note that China’s actions reflect a broader strategy of exerting pressure and influence over Taiwan without resorting to overt military actions. This nuanced approach is seen in the seizure of the fishing boat. It underscores China’s intentions to shape regional dynamics through economic and maritime policies. Unsurprisingly, this has prompted heightened scrutiny and responses from neighboring countries and international stakeholders.
North Korea Fires Two Missiles to Send Signal in Protest
North Korea conducted a significant missile test a week ago, launching two missiles within minutes of each other. This action was widely viewed as a protest against joint military exercises, named Freedom Edge, conducted by Japan, South Korea, and the United States in Korean waters over a three-day period.
One of the missiles reportedly flew 600 kilometers in what appeared to be a successful test flight. The other exploded at 120 kilometers altitude, scattering debris over North Korean territory. The incident raises concerns about potential civilian impacts and underscores regional tensions surrounding North Korea’s military activities.
Questions & Comments
- How might Japan adapt to a declining American influence and the rise of other power centers like Russia, China, and India, given its current strategy of aligning closely with the United States and Western allies? Are there any scenarios or leaders that could shift Japan towards a more pragmatic and realistic foreign policy?
- What is Japan’s role in the upcoming NATO Summit in Washington?
- Some candidates in the Tokyo governor’s race are likely just in it for publicity. I wonder what your take is on a candidate like Satoru Utsumi. How serious is his bid for the position?
- If Renho wins the Tokyo gubernatorial election, could we expect any major changes in policies for the further development of services for residents of Tokyo?
- Could naturalized citizens who may have difficulty writing in Japanese still be allowed to vote?
- What do you think of the possibility of Shigeru Ishiba becoming the next Prime Minister of Japan?
- What are the implications of the US Department of Defense boosting fighter jet presence in Japan at this timing? Does it have to do with what’s going on in Taiwan or the Philippines?
- With changing war doctrines and the US adjusting its military equipment, a common trend is emerging globally. Will Japan be asked to invest more in defense, and what impact will this have on its fiscal budget?
- Do you think that the sexual misconduct by US military personnel in Japan has indirectly led to a series of issues within the Japanese Ministry of Defense, including mishandling classified information, legislative breaches by public servants, and pressure on the head of the SDF navy to resign?
- The Japanese government had positive income for the past four years until 2024. This profit is said to be used to finance the defense budget. Who is in charge of the actual financing and operation? Who makes the final call on the budget?
- Last week, we talked about the East trilateral meeting and the idea of a strong Eastern alliance without Western influence. Given this context, and the agreement that the Philippines is part of Asia, how do you think China views Taiwan and other Asian countries that are aligned with the US?
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