Japanese Politics Updates – July 14, 2024

Welcome to the Synopsis of the 179th update “Japanese Politics One-on-One,” courtesy of Langley Esquire and Japan Expert Insights.

This is what happened in Japanese politics during the week of July 7 and what we will talk about in this update:

• The Prime Minister has been busy since the Diet ended three weeks ago. Amid ongoing turmoil, he has embarked on a nationwide tour to discuss the LDP, recent scandals involving campaign funds, and efforts to reform the party. He will also go to DC for the NATO 3-day conclave. He will then visit Germany to see Chancellor Olaf Scholz, all in a week’s work.
• Last week, Yuriko Koike was re-elected as governor with about 60% of the vote. This mirrored the turnout from her second election four years ago.
• The Ministry of Defense is also facing challenges. They include failing to meet recruiting targets by 50%+ for the second year, and recent leaks of confidential information. These issues have pressured the Ministry, highlighting Japan’s efforts to build a stronger military presence while putting meat on the bones of emerging alliances.
• Meanwhile, the Constitutional Democratic Party is in a state of introspection after their candidate, Renho, came in third in the Governor’s race. The party is analyzing what went wrong, especially given Renho’s strong previous performance and national prominence.
• Economically, the yen has been volatile: last week, it almost reached $/¥162 but fell to $/¥157.6 following government intervention. This fluctuation is a critical indicator of Japan’s economic health… and it does not look good.
• Tokyo will host the Pacific Island Nations from the 16th to the 18th. This is a significant event as these nations weigh their alliances between China’s Belt and Road Initiative vs Japan’s coalition-building efforts.

So, let’s dive deeper and see what-else transpired during this dramatic past week:

NATO’s Strategic Shift: Ukraine, Trump, and Global Alliances

NATO held a significant three-day conclave in Washington, D.C., where many crucial decisions were made and issues discussed. A major focus was on Ukraine and the efforts to “Trump-proof” alliances that the Biden administration has been fostering to support Ukraine. The potential return of President Trump to office has led to concerns that U.S. support for Ukraine may diminish, given the recent political developments. This possibility has fueled tensions, with many in the U.S. questioning the level of US engagement in Ukraine.

To address these concerns, the strategy in Washington is to shift some of the support burden to NATO allies and other like-minded countries. This, however, will reduce the U.S.’s prominent leadership. The NATO partners have shown a strong commitment to supporting Ukraine, even discussing the possibility of Ukraine joining NATO. This potential membership was a significant point of contention for Vladimir Putin. It is now being openly considered, contingent on certain requirements and potential concessions in the ongoing war.

Prime Minister Fumio Kishida has also shown substantial interest in this issue, spending considerable time on it. While addressing other matters as well, the NATO discussions have been particularly challenging for the PM. Tough statements were made regarding China’s involvement. Some accused them of being meddlesome and divisive, particularly concerning the resolution of the Taiwanese issue. These comments have escalated an already tense (and increasingly so) situation.

Japan’s Evolving Military Strategy with the Philippines

The Philippines and Japan signed a new alliance this week. This new Reciprocal Access Agreement allows Filipino troops to be stationed in Japan with their arms, materials, and quarters. Vice versa, it permits Japanese self-defense forces to station troops in the Philippines. This agreement is similar to the reciprocal access rights Japan has with Australia, Great Britain, the US and potentially others in the future.

Previously, the only country with such access rights with Japan was the United States, under a Status of Forces Agreement implemented 64+ years ago. This new agreement with the Philippines marks a major shift in regional military cooperation. It also reflects Japan’s growing role in the security framework of the Asia-Pacific region.

This development is part of a broader strategy by Japan to enhance its defense capabilities and contribute to regional security. Japan is moving towards developing its own high-tech military assets. The intention behind this move is to become more competitive on the world market and boost its economy through defense exports. The Japanese government is actively seeking new economic drivers to counter the prolonged economic stagnation.

Japan’s efforts to strengthen its military capabilities are also evident in its commitment to increase defense spending. The country’s peace constitution, specifically Article 9, forbids possessing, manufacturing, exporting or hosting offensive weaponry. The Japanese military is technically a self-defense force rather than an army. Despite this, Japan’s self-defense forces are one of the largest in the world. They are set to become even more significant with changes in defense policies and increased spending. The goal is to allocate 2% of Japan’s gross domestic product to defense spending. This is a substantial increase that will further bolster Japan’s military capabilities and its role in regional security.

Japan’s Defense Crisis: Discipline, Security, and Reform in the Self-Defense Forces

The Ministry of Defense in Japan has initiated this week significant disciplinary actions, penalizing 218 self-defense forces personnel and ministry officials. Among them, the Vice Minister received a reprimand, while the Chief of Staff resigned. An investigation revealed widespread negligence in safeguarding and sharing classified information within the organization, power harassment, and wining/dining with contractors.

The breaches primarily occurred within the Maritime Self-Defense Forces, with 62 personnel from the Marine division implicated. These breaches involved the improper sharing of sensitive location data and unauthorized allowances. They totaled 43 million yen for diving and training activities from 2017 to 2022. Such lapses raise concerns about security protocols, especially as Japan seeks integration into the Five Eyes intelligence-sharing consortium.

The investigation uncovered instances of fraudulent receipt of allowances, power harassment, and inappropriate financial dealings with contractors. These revelations underscore deeper systemic issues within the self-defense forces. Some of those issues are allegations of workplace intimidation and harassment by senior ministry officials, creating a toxic work environment.

Japan is striving to be seen as a vital component of the global community of like-minded nations. To achieve this, the country must address not only issues of confidence building and security but also work on attracting more young people to join the self-defense forces. Recently, Japan unveiled a broad-reaching AI policy aimed at integrating artificial intelligence into its self-defense operations. This move is partly in response to advancements in China and the United States and also to supplement a declining workforce. The policy includes using AI for analysis, intelligence collection, decision-making, and autonomous drones.

Bank of Japan Likely Conducted Intervention Yet Again

On Thursday, the Bank of Japan intervened in response to a sudden stagnation of the yen, which had experienced a notable 4 yen surge the previous day. Reports from TV Asahi and the Mainichi essentially confirmed this intervention, highlighting its significance in stabilizing Japan’s currency. The exact scale of the intervention remains undisclosed pending the Bank of Japan’s monthly financial release. Its impact, however, underscores ongoing challenges in managing currency stability.

The intervention echoes recent warnings from global financial leaders, including Janet Yellen, who cautioned against unilateral currency interventions without international coordination. This proactive step by Japan comes amidst concerns over the yen’s depreciation, which had reached a critical point of $/¥161 yen, with fluctuations threatening economic momentum.

The broader economic context in Japan reveals a complex landscape. Here, despite a robust stock market, the yen’s weakness and inflation pressures complicate household finances. The Prime Minister faces the daunting task of incentivizing greater economic circulation, addressing the substantial wealth held in private savings due to risk aversion among mom-and-pop investors. This cautious approach extends to investments in startups, where perceived returns often lag behind other global markets.

Moreover, Japan’s economic dynamics reflect deep-seated challenges rooted in historical economic behaviors, such as extensive savings and conservative investment patterns prevalent since the bubble economy era. Unlocking this accumulated wealth could potentially inject vitality into the economy, though it requires overcoming entrenched risk aversion among savers.

In navigating these complexities, the Prime Minister’s strategy pivots on revitalizing economic circulation while addressing structural impediments to growth. The outcome of these efforts holds significant implications not just for Japan’s economic outlook but also for its global economic role and stability.

Poll Results: Cabinet Approval Declines at an Alarming Rate

Recent Cabinet approval ratings, as reported by Jiji Press, reflect a significant decline for Prime Minister Kishida’s administration. This drop, down to 15.5%, marks the lowest approval since the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) returned to power in 2012. The decline follows the recent Tokyo gubernatorial race where Yuriko Koike performed well. She did NOT run under the LDP banner.

The approval ratings signal a challenging period for the LDP, reminiscent of their previous loss under then Prime Minister Taro Aso leadership, followed by a coalition of other parties, then the triple disaster of 2011. With 39% of respondents expressing a desire for change in the upcoming Lower House elections, and only 36% preferring the LDP retain power, the political landscape remains uncertain.

Looking ahead to potential election scenarios, 22% indicated they would vote for the LDP, while other significant percentages aligned with the Constitutional Democratic Party (12%), Ishin (6%), Komeito (4%), and the Japanese Communist Party (3%). These figures underscore a fragmented political sentiment amidst calls for leadership change.

Poll: Who Would Like to be Seen as the Next Prime Minister?

The upcoming election for the President of the LDP in September holds significant implications for Japan’s future leadership, as the party president traditionally becomes the Prime Minister due to the LDP’s majority in the Parliament. This internal election involves voting by both Diet Members and card-carrying LDP Members. If more than two candidates compete for party President, a runoff election is held, where parliamentary votes carry more weight than those of card-carrying members.

Former LDP Secretary Shigeru Ishiba currently leads the polls with 21% public support, followed by former environment minister Shinjiro Koizumi with nearly 11%. Other notable candidates include former Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga, Digital Minister Taro Kono, and former minister for gender Seiko Noda. However, these public polls only reflect general sentiment, not the actual voting dynamics within the LDP.

Among LDP supporters in isolation, the dynamics shift slightly: Ishiba leads with 26%, followed by Koizumi at 10%, and Kono Taro at 9.6%. Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, who has not officially declared his candidacy yet, remains behind with a 9.1% approval rating.

Looking ahead, the LDP presidential election will unfold over a 12-day period starting on September 8th, with a final vote on September 20th. Candidates like Kishida and Ishiba are currently navigating behind-the-scenes preparations, as reported in last week’s briefing synopsis.

These developments set the stage for a pivotal period in Japanese politics, influencing not only the LDP’s internal dynamics but also the country’s future leadership amid shifting public sentiment and strategic maneuvering within the party ranks.

Takeaways and Insights from the Tokyo Governor’s Race

The recent election for Tokyo governor has shed light on various dynamics within the LDP, third-party candidates, and the Constitutional Democratic Party (CDP). Kenta Izumi, leader of the CDP, is under scrutiny after Renho, a prominent figure in this party, relinquished her secure seat in the Upper House to run for Governor, only to finish third. This outcome has sparked criticism, with many questioning Izumi’s strategy and leadership, especially since registered CDP members didn’t overwhelmingly support Renho.

Izumi is facing heat not only from outside critics but also from within his party. Former Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda and influential politician Ichiro Ozawa have both expressed dissatisfaction with Izumi’s leadership. Ozawa, known for his political acumen, has been a vocal critic, suggesting that it might be time for a change in leadership. This internal pressure adds to the tension, with Izumi’s second-in-command, Katsunobu Okada, eyeing the top position himself.

Meanwhile, the pollical scene is also seeing the emergence of new figures such as Shinji Ishimaru. Ishimaru, an elected official from Hiroshima Prefecture’s small city of Akitakata, made a notable impression by running a savvy and effective campaign. He came in second, placing between Koike and Renho despite a crowded field of 56 (!) candidates. His pointed, concise speeches and youthful energy are making waves, and he is expected to run for a seat in Hiroshima, potentially challenging the Prime Minister.

Prime Minister Fumio Kishida faces an election starting on September 8th and concluding on the 20th. The recent death of former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has left a void in support, particularly affecting candidates like Economic Security Minister Sanae Takaichi, who relied heavily on Abe’s backing. Takaichi will struggle to garner the necessary 20 signatures from Diet members to support her candidacy, highlighting her challenges.

The upcoming election has also highlighted factional tensions within the LDP. Ishiba aligns with Yoshihide Suga’s camp, while Motegi is closer to Taro Aso. Kishida finds himself somewhat isolated, navigating a complex political landscape he has partly shaped.

With such a rich mix of political maneuvering, emerging candidates, and internal party dynamics, the coming months promise to be eventful in Japanese politics. Stay tuned for further updates as these developments unfold.

Woman Rescued in Chiba, Found Floating 36 Hours After Going Missing in Shimoda

With the summer season in full swing, many are enjoying beach activities and water sports. On Wednesday evening a 20-year-old Chinese national faced a harrowing ordeal off Shimoda, drifting at sea for 36 hours on an inner tube before being rescued by the Chiba Coast Guard in Chiba Prefecture. She is now receiving intensive care, underscoring the potential dangers even in seemingly calm waters during this season.

As temperatures rise, Japan is bracing for intense heatwaves, prompting measures like extended air conditioning hours and reduced electricity costs. It’s essential to stay vigilant, especially near water bodies, and prioritize safety during these hot months.

Questions & Comments from the Audience Answered Exclusively During the Update

• Are any current Cabinet members appointed by PM Kishida planning to run for LDP president?
• Is there consensus within the LDP about the need for Japan to have a Prime Minister for multiple terms to project power and stability?
• Is it possible to postpone the Japanese election process?
• Where does all this money come from for yen intervention?
• Do you think Japan and China are being as patient and diplomatic as possible regarding the recent entry of a JMSDF ship into Chinese waters, given the lack of public outcry in both countries?
• Did RENGO president Ms. Yoshino’s dissatisfaction with the Tokyo gubernatorial election, despite RENGO Tokyo district’s support for Ms. Koike, contribute to Ms. Renho’s poor performance?
• Do you think: will the LDP-led initiative to host a NATO office in Tokyo have any impact on the results of the up-coming PM elections?
• In my community, many support Ishiba because they oppose Taro Kono becoming Prime Minister. What factors contribute to Kono Taro’s unpopularity?
• What kind of government might emerge if a situation similar to the COVID-19 pandemic arises again?
• Many locals in Okinawa are tired of the current SOFA arrangement and they want change. Do you foresee any change in the future?
• Do you think the recent events involving information leakage and the scandal with Kawasaki Heavy Industries will affect Japan’s military cooperation with other countries?