Japanese Politics Updates – February 2, 2025

Hello fellow Japan-Hands and welcome to the four-year anniversary episode of Japanese Politics One-on-One. Thank you so much for being part of the audience. Here are the latest developments in Japanese politics:

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Budget Committee Deliberations Begin Amid Political Tensions

After delays, the Diet’s Budget Committee finally began deliberations on Friday. The deliberations, however, are stalled by opposition demands—particularly from the Constitutional Democratic Party (CDP)—for the LDP’s former Accountant to testify on party finances. The LDP ultimately agreed to “encourage” Matsumoto Junichiro (77) to testify on February 10. Despite this, as a private citizen, he can refuse, which is likely to prolong the issue.

For the first time in 30 years, an opposition member (not just non-LDP but anti-LDP!) chairs the Committee, which has the power to summon Diet members. With the LDP-Komeito coalition holding only 24 of 50 seats, opposition pressure is strong, and a deadlock could see the CDP chairman casting the deciding vote. The Budget must pass the Lower House by March 2 before moving to the Upper House, which has 30 days for review. If rejected, the Lower House can still enact it, making current negotiations crucial.

This marks the first time in three decades the LDP must negotiate with opposition parties like this. Last year, then-budget committee chair Itsunori Onodera rammed the Budget through without issue. Under CDP’s Jun Azumi, however, the opposition-controlled Committee is proving to be an obstacle. The LDP initially tried to block Accountant Matsumoto’s testimony, citing a need for unanimous approval to summon a private citizen. Regardless, Komeito refused to back the LDP demand (!?!), forcing the LDP to concede. Without enforcement power, however, the Accountant’s appearance remains doubtful, adding to LDP’s difficulties (and enhancing the suspicions!).

Komeito’s stance underscores tensions in the coalition. Frustrated by the LDP’s failure to restore public trust after the money scandal, Komeito has taken the unprecedented step of fielding a candidate in Tokyo’s 21st district, breaking a 21-year pact to avoid vote-splitting. Beyond Tokyo, the scandal is weakening the LDP in Hyogo, exposing internal fractures there, too. With elections in June, LDP’s standing is increasingly uncertain.

With only 28 days to pass the budget, the LDP faces tough concessions to the opposition. Meanwhile, internal divisions and public frustration mount. If the process stalls, it could escalate into a no-confidence motion against Prime Minister Ishiba (maybe even pretty soon!). A collapse of the LDP-Komeito alliance will reshape the political landscape. This will make the LDP’s grip on power more fragile than it has been in decades.

Further Political Developments – Looking Ahead to Ishiba’s U.S. Visit

Defense Minister Gen Nakatani talked with U.S. Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth on Friday, discussing joint exercises near the Senkaku Islands, a flashpoint in Japan-China tensions. Strengthening the U.S.-Japan alliance remains a top priority ahead of Prime Minister Ishiba’s visit to Washington this Friday. 

Former LDP Secretary General Motegi’s recent dinner meeting with ~70 lawmakers suggests factional realignments following the LDP funding scandal. With the only officially recognized faction being Aso’s, Motegi’s influence appears to be growing. Meanwhile, Komeito’s dissatisfaction with the LDP’s handling of the scandal signals potential fractures in their coalition. It has also raised uncertainty as the budget deadline approaches. If the budget doesn’t pass the Lower House by March 2, a no-confidence motion could follow, triggering an early election.

Adding to the complexity, Trump’s expanded tariffs on China, Mexico, and Canada are disrupting global supply chains. This is impacting Japan’s economic strategy (and sending shivers throughout Kasumigaseki). Ishiba will likely address these economic concerns during his meeting with Trump, alongside security issues. With political uncertainty growing and a possible Lower House election in June, Japan’s domestic and diplomatic maneuvering will be closely watched.

Regional Elections Reflect Japan’s Political Climate Amid LDP Struggles

Recent regional elections in Japan provide insight into the public’s political sentiment amid ongoing turmoil in the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP). In Kitakyushu, the LDP lost three seats in the local assembly. The voter turnout there was at a low 17%, possibly indicating public disengagement. Meanwhile, in Okinawa’s Ginowan mayoral race, the LDP-backed candidate, Atsushi Sakima, won, securing support for the controversial relocation of U.S. Marines to Henoko.

In gubernatorial races, Yamagata’s incumbent governor, Mieko Yoshimura, secured a historic fifth term with broad party support. At the same time in Gifu, independent Yoshihide Esaki, backed by major parties including the LDP, also won. These mixed results suggest that while the LDP faces significant challenges, it still retains influence in key regions. Still, it is a delicate time.

Japan’s Foreign Workforce Hits Record High for 12th Consecutive Year

Japan’s foreign workforce has hit a record high for the 12th consecutive year, reaching 2.3 million as of October 2024. This is a 12.4% increase from the previous year. Vietnamese workers make up the largest group, accounting for 10% of the total. Mea while workers from Myanmar and Indonesia saw the most significant growth, rising by 61% and 39%, respectively.

Manufacturing remains the dominant sector for foreign labor, employing over 26% of all foreign workers. 88.3% of them engaged in industrial work.

Fuji TV Scandal Costs Billions as Executives Face Intense Scrutiny

Fuji Television has lost over 23 billion yen in revenue. This is due to a scandal involving former SMAP member Nakai, who was accused of sexual assault and reportedly paid out a settlement of 90 million yen. The controversy raised concerns over accountability in Japan’s entertainment and corporate sectors. Fuji TV’s initial response was evasive, leading to sponsor withdrawals. In an effort to regain trust, executives held a record-breaking 10.5-hour press conference, which earned some public respect. Nakai has retired, and a final report is expected in March. The scandal has already led to leadership changes at Fuji TV.

North Korea Advances Missile Capabilities with Underwater Launch

North Korea launched two cruise missiles on January 27, both which flew for two hours, covering over 1,500 kilometers in a figure-eight pattern before splashing down in a targeted area. This suggests advancements in North Korea’s submarine and missile technology, raising security concerns for Japan, South Korea, and the U.S. The geopolitical implications of this test could influence regional security strategies. This could happen particularly as Japan’s Prime Minister prepares to report on his meeting with Donald Trump.

Questions from the Audience Addressed Exclusively During the Briefing

• What was really at the root of the recent LDP money scandals?
• Does the LDP lack a clear strategy to resolve the ongoing alleged kickback scandal? Or are some within the party deliberately allowing the issue to linger as a political maneuver—perhaps to undermine other leaders? Additionally, could the new CDP budget committee chair be prolonging the controversy to maximize the LDP’s embarrassment ahead of the summer election?
• Has the Diet ever enacted a continuing resolution to keep funding the central government budget at the previous year’s level for a few months?