Japanese Politics Updates – January 26, 2025

Hello fellow Japan-Hands and welcome to the 207th episode of Japanese Politics One-on-One! Here are the latest developments in Japanese politics:

• Week closed at 156.03¥/$;
• Diet opened on Friday 24th for a 150 day session. Emperor crossed the moat to formally open the Diet on Friday (24th) for a 150-day session;
• The 2026 budget needs to pass by 3/21 and this requires the orchestration of a majority;
• Bank of Japan doubles interest rates to 0.5% in their long pursuit of getting inflation down to 2%;
• Pollen present in Tokyo a month earlier than usual;
• Shouhei Otani’s former interpreter arrested, to be sentenced on Feb. 6th for pilfering US$16 million. Prosecutors are seeking 4 years 9 months.

LDP Faces Mounting Challenges Amid Potential Budget Stalemate

The Liberal Democratic Party and its coalition partner, Komeito, are grappling with a precarious situation. They struggle to secure the 51% majority needed to pass the budget for next year. Currently, they lack 11 votes in the Lower House, forcing them to consider two unappealing options: recruiting independent members or negotiating with an opposition party such as Ishin-no-Kai or the Democratic Party For the People.

The opposition parties are well aware of the coalition’s predicament and are using it to their advantage. Ishin-no-Kai and the Democratic Party for the People have made significant demands, including free high school education, lower social insurance fees, and free meals for public schools. Each concession the LDP makes to secure votes risks further emboldening its rivals. Meanwhile, the largest opposition group, the Constitutional Democratic Party (CDP), under Yoshihiko Noda, has categorically refused to collaborate with the LDP. Instead it has focused on exposing the ruling coalition’s vulnerabilities.

Compounding these political challenges is the fallout from ongoing corruption scandals. Decades-long kickback schemes within the LDP, particularly tied to the Seiwakai faction once led by Shinzo Abe, have come to light. Investigations reveal systemic skimming and redistribution of funds at not only the national but also the regional levels, including the Tokyo Metropolitan Government and Hyogo Prefecture. Arrests and testimonies, including that of a key LDP accountant, have implicated numerous party members, deepening public distrust and fueling opposition momentum.

These scandals are particularly damaging as the LDP faces a critical electoral calendar. Regional elections, including governorships and key local assemblies, are already underway. The results of these contests, such as the Kita-Kyushu Assembly, could serve as bellwethers for the upcoming Tokyo Metropolitan elections and national upper house elections later this year. With many LDP incumbents implicated in corruption, these elections could result in significant losses for the party, reshaping the political balance in Tokyo and beyond. Watch what happens today.

Public sentiment is a growing concern for the LDP. Japanese voters are historically unforgiving of political corruption, and the widespread nature of the scandals paints the party in a deeply unfavorable light. This discontent, combined with the opposition’s strategic positioning and policy proposals, creates an environment ripe for potential shifts in power. 

Prime Minister Ishiba faces a narrowing window to secure the necessary votes for the budget before the March 31st deadline. His leadership will be tested not only in forging the necessary alliances to pass the budget but also in addressing the systemic corruption that has tainted his party. Failure to effectively manage either issue could have profound implications for the LDP’s future, potentially paving the way for a resurgence of the opposition.

These coming months will likely prove decisive for Japan’s political trajectory. Not the least because scandals, policy debates, and voter sentiment converge to challenge the long-standing dominance of the LDP-Komeito coalition.

Prospects of a Double Election

As Japan’s political calendar intensifies, discussions of a potential double election are gaining momentum. A double election occurs when both the Lower and Upper Houses of the Diet dissolve for simultaneous elections. Such an event could significantly alter the political landscape, particularly for the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP).

The current Diet session concludes on June 22, with the Upper House election cycle beginning shortly after. While only half of the upper house’s 248 seats (124) are up for re-election, the possibility of synchronizing this with a dissolution of the Lower House looms large. The election periods for both houses differ slightly—12 days for the Lower House and 15 days for the Upper House. The potential for a combined campaign, however, remains strategically significant.

This scenario could be triggered if the LDP suffers losses in upcoming municipal elections, particularly in Tokyo, or fails to regain voter trust amid ongoing corruption revelations. Such defeats might embolden opposition parties to push for a no-confidence motion against Prime Minister Ishiba, prompting a double dissolution. The Seiwakai faction’s alleged financial improprieties, reignited after Shinzo Abe’s assassination, have already shaken public confidence in the LDP’s leadership, adding fuel to the fire.

The timing of a double election could prove pivotal. If the opposition consolidates its forces, it might capitalize on public discontent and the LDP’s internal fractures. Conversely, Ishiba may attempt to preemptively dissolve the lower house to unify his party and outmaneuver opponents. Alligators are on either decision-side.

Municipal elections are already underway and key Tokyo races are set to precede the Upper House elections by just weeks. These contests will likely serve as a litmus test for the LDP’s standing. A double election could either consolidate or dismantle the party’s long-held dominance. This makes the coming months critical for Japan’s political trajectory.

Fuji Television Scandal: A Cultural and Corporate Implosion

A growing scandal involving Fuji Television threatens to reshape Japan’s media landscape. The scandal is extending its shadow over cultural and corporate sectors alike. While initially outside the political sphere, the controversy’s escalation has drawn public attention, corporate backlash, and even scrutiny from cabinet members.

At the heart of the issue is SMAP member-now-TV host Masahiro Nakai. Allegations surfaced of inappropriate behavior at social events, common in Japan’s entertainment industry but now under intense scrutiny. A young woman reportedly mistreated by Nakai was paid ¥90 million (~$570,000) in hush money. This transaction was uncovered by investigative outlets like Bunshun and Josei Seven.

Fuji Television’s handling of the matter has been disastrous. There was strong criticism of its first press conference for it being evasive, fueling public outrage. Sponsors, including Toyota, McDonald’s, and Asahi Beer, have since severed ties, depriving the broadcaster of crucial revenue.

With cabinet members calling for a review of Fuji’s practices, the situation underscores the interconnectedness of Japan’s media, corporate, and political ecosystems. As the scandal unfolds, the future of one of Japan’s largest broadcasters hangs in the balance. There are also broader implications for transparency and accountability in entertainment and media industries.

Ishin-no-Kai Pushes Primary Strategy Amid Upcoming Elections

Ishin-no-Kai, Japan’s third-largest political party, is advocating for a unified primary among opposition parties ahead of upcoming elections. This proposal targets the 32 single-member districts in the Lower House, historically dominated by the LDP. These districts often see vote-splitting among opposition candidates, allowing the LDP to win with a plurality rather than a majority.

The plan involves opposition parties—including the Constitutional Democratic Party, DPFP, and the Communist Party—convening in February to negotiate candidate allocations. A primary would follow in March or April, allowing voters to choose a single opposition candidate to face the LDP. This approach could mitigate the vote-splitting problem, bolstering opposition chances in these key districts.

The Upper House election is looming in July,with half of the 248 seats are up for grabs. The stakes are particularly high. The ruling coalition of the LDP and Komeito currently holds 56% of seats. This means around 70 coalition candidates are seeking re-election. However, the ongoing kickback scandal implicates 26 LDP members running in this upcoming Upper House race, potentially undermining their support.

If public discontent with the LDP continues to grow, the opposition may not even need primaries to capitalize on the ruling party’s weaknesses. However, Ishin-no-Kai’s strategy reflects a calculated attempt to consolidate opposition power and take advantage of the current political climate.

As both Lower and Upper House elections approach, the unfolding dynamics will test the LDP’s resilience. They will also be a test for the opposition’s ability to present a unified front.

Prime Minister Ishiba’s Policy Speech Outlines Key Goals for the Diet Session

Session

Prime Minister Ishiba delivered a policy speech during the Diet’s opening session, setting the stage for upcoming legislative priorities. This speech, alongside Emperor Naruhito’s ceremonial opening of the session, highlights Ishiba’s focus on revitalizing Japan. The country’s revitalization plans come amidst economic, demographic, and societal challenges.

Key initiatives include:

• Economic Revitalization: A ¥200 billion ($1.3 billion) plan with a five-pillar framework targeting regional revitalization, digital transformation, clean energy, and gender equality. Measures aim to decentralize Tokyo-centric development by moving institutions to other regions and fostering opportunities for local youth;
• Raising Wages: Ishiba pledged to raise the minimum hourly wage to ¥1,500 by 2030. This intersects with broader concerns about wage growth and inflation pressure;
• Depopulation Countermeasures: Proposals include full salary coverage during childcare leave and improving conditions for nursery school teachers;
• Cybersecurity: He aims to pass an active cyber defense bill, delayed from last year. He will also address emerging issues like internet-facilitated crimes (e.g., yami-baito);
• Defense Enhancements: Plans to improve conditions for the Self-Defense Forces, addressing recruitment challenges and societal perceptions of Japan’s military role.
• 80 Years Since End of Pacific War: Many expect that the administration will emphasize national reflection and possibly launch commemorative events.

Ishiba’s ability to push these priorities through the Diet will depend on cooperation from opposition parties, political trade-offs are inevitable. The session sets the tone for his administration’s trajectory amid public discontent and evolving domestic and international pressures.

Questions from the Audience Addressed Exclusively During the Briefing

• It is expected that Ishiba will visit DC in February. What in your assessment are the major issues likely to be discussed?
• What proportion of the budget is compiled by Diet members and what by bureaucrats?
• What is the appraisal in Japan of new Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth, who has said his focus will be in the Indo-Pacific?