The ranks of fellow-Japan-Hands are growing as people all over the world are increasingly interested in what’s going on in Japan. If you are new to this glove, welcome to the 198th Japanese Politics Update!
- The week closed at ¥/$154.77. Last week it was 154.32, two weeks ago 152, incrementally weakening. We await real market reaction once the Diet comes into session later this month.
- In the US, the Presidential Inauguration is in 2 months. So massive is this, and the furious focus on Cabinet appointments, that we already anticipate big differences from the current Biden Administration. This uncertainty casts a shadow over foreign policy discussions, and not only at the recent APAC and G-20, but throughout the halls of the Parliament here, too.
- The ruling LDP+Komeito bloc made a decision this week to push through a stimulus package of 21.9 trillion yen. That’s about 14 billion dollars, a big number!
- China reinstated 30-day visa-free travel for Japanese citizens; that is significant.
- Huge upset last Sunday: resigned-Hyogo Prefectural Governor Motohiko Saito was reelected, bouncing back from a unanimous no confidence vote. Many are pointing to his adept use of social media as responsible for the marked increase in voter turnout.
Recent Political and Economic Developments
Thanksgiving and Diet Schedule:
On November 28, while the U.S. celebrates Thanksgiving, Japan will kick off an Extraordinary Diet Session lasting 23 days, set to conclude on December 21. The session will focus on finalizing a hefty stimulus package among other pressing issues.
Prime Minister in International Waters:
The Prime Minister recently returned from key international summits in Peru (APEC) and Brazil (G20), making headlines with significant meetings. He engaged with China’s Xi Jinping to discuss easing tensions, including Chinese observers of the water treatment processes in Fukushima and lifting the ban on Japanese food imports—a critical issue given the trade hit Japan has taken.
He also met South Korea’s President Yoon to address North Korea’s alarming escalation, including the potential deployment of 100,000 North Korean troops to Ukraine in support of Russia. Concerns linger over what Pyongyang might have received in exchange—possibly missile or nuclear technology, the speculation goes. Anyway, it is a serious decision to send your soldiers to fight in someone else’s war.
International Gaffes and Domestic Worries:
While in Brazil, the Prime Minister skipped a group photo-op, the embassy there blaming traffic delays after someone decided visiting former Peruvian President Alberto Fujimori’s gravesite was a good idea. This was clearly a blunder reflecting poorly on the Japanese delegation. His performance on the global stage, marked by moments of fatigue and missteps (remaining seated while shaking hands with various Heads of State), highlight his domestic focus and lack of foreign-affairs finesse, especially compared to former PM Kishida’s polished diplomacy.
Economic Stimulus Package:
Ahead of the Diet session, the ruling bloc (LDP + Komeito) and the Democratic Party for the People (DPP) agreed on a ¥21.9 trillion stimulus package. This figure slightly exceeds last year’s one. Key measures include:
- ¥30,000 for low-income families, with an additional ¥20,000 per child.
- Nationwide gas and electricity subsidies.
- Quick economic injection following legislative approval.
The DPFP, riding high from electoral gains, pushed to raise the tax-free income threshold from ¥1.03M to higher levels, although the broader debate will roll into next year’s budget negotiations.
Future Discussions:
As the Diet session unfolds, horse-trading on issues like tax reform and budget will intensify. With the DPFP aiming to deliver on campaign promises, the ruling bloc seeks to solidify public support through tangible economic relief. Plus, they are obligated to avoid crashing the economy with more-and-more public handouts.
Japan Hosts Five Eyes Meeting: A Step Toward Membership?
Japan recently hosted a Five Eyes meeting—not a summit of leaders, but still a historic first for a non-member. The Five Eyes alliance, comprising the U.S., Canada, the U.K., Australia, and New Zealand, coordinates intelligence sharing for collective security. Japan has long coveted membership, eager to access the alliance’s intelligence troves.
However, Japan’s inclusion faces skepticism. Its reputation for poor information security—rife with leaks and cyber vulnerabilities—has made Japan-overall a “playground” for spies. Critics point to Japan’s lagging cyber defenses and the stalled Cybersecurity Bill, which now seems certain not to pass this year. This legislation is seen as critical to shoring-up the country’s defenses and proving it can handle sensitive data responsibly.
The meeting, held Monday, may signal gradual progress, much like the recent Canadian Coast Guard collaboration that began with a visit and later expanded into regional cooperation on anti-piracy and fisheries protection. Hosting Five Eyes is likely a precursor to deeper integration, but Japan still has substantial ground to cover before earning a seat at the table.
Ishin-no-Kai’s Leadership Shakeup After Election Setback
Ishin-no-Kai, one of Japan’s opposition parties, took a significant hit in the recent elections. It lost five seats—an especially painful blow given the Constitutional Democratic Party’s success and the Democratic Party for the People’s 250% growth. Party leader Mr. Baba, unable to prevent the slide, resigned as a result.
The race to replace him will take place next Sunday. Four party-heavy-hitters are in the mix:
- Osaka Governor Hirofumi Yoshimura
- Ishin’s Deputy Secretary-General Ryuna Kanemaru
- Former Kanagawa Governor Shigefumi Matsuzawa
- Lower House Member for Hiroshima Seiki Soramoto.
While the competition will be tight, Yoshimura’s ascendency is fairly certain. As a point of interest, the leadership position doesn’t require a parliamentary seat, which adds a twist to the drama unfolding in Ishin-no-Kai.
Japan’s Military Ties Strengthen as Self-Defense Forces Take a Bigger Role
During his time in Lima, Peru, Japan’s Prime Minister discussed plans with the UK for more regular two-plus-two meetings between their economic security and foreign ministers, aiming to improve collaboration.
More notably, Australia announced it would host Japan’s Self-Defense Forces for joint training. The U.S. has already been working with Japan’s ground Self-Defense Forces, creating a brigade for amphibious defense maneuvers, and now Australia will be hosting this training with Aussie forces. This is pretty instructive of where Japan’s MSDF are potentially going longer-term: regional.
Japan’s Self-Defense Forces, once a low-profile institution in a culture that doesn’t like a military presence, are slowly gaining importance. However, with Japan’s declining population, the military faces a challenge in recruiting personnel, balancing defense needs with economic demands. Despite this, strengthening military interoperability—especially with Australia and the U.S. — and others in the wings? — seems to be Japan’s growing priority.
Questions from the Audience Addressed Exclusively During the Briefing
- Some DPP voters do not want the Party to act as the B-team to the LDP. Do you agree with Dan Harada that the DPFP likely plans to formally join the ruling coalition?
- Has there been a similar example in the past of a smaller party holding the cards for the survival of the PM and ruling coalition?
- Do you think that the next budget will be financed through issuing more government bonds, or through taxes?
- What do you think is the riskiest policy of the 2nd Trump administration with regard to Japan?
Are you familiar with “Tokyo on Fire”? Episodes are available on YouTube “Langley Esquire”: excruciatingly-gained insights sifted over 40 years in-country! Entertainingly presented.
“Japanese Politics One-on-One” episodes are on YouTube “Japan Expert Insights”.
If you gain insight from these briefings, consider a tailored one for your Executive Team or for passing-through-Tokyo heavyweights.
To learn more about advocacy in Japan, read our article “Understanding the Dynamics of Lobbying in Japan.”
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