Japanese Politics Updates – November 23, 2025

Weekly Briefing Synopsis

Good morning, and welcome to the recap of Japanese Politics One-on-One, Episode 250, broadcast on Sunday, November 23, 2025.

Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi departed for Johannesburg yesterday to attend the G20 Summit and is expected to return to Tokyo on Tuesday, stepping straight back into a crowded Diet calendar. The timing is not incidental. Her administration enters December with unresolved coalition arithmetic, currency instability, active diplomatic friction with China, and a stimulus package large enough to reshape both policy sequencing and market confidence.

It was one of those weeks where nothing moved in isolation. The yen, Beijing, the budget, and coalition partners all moved together although not always in alignment.

Politics: Fragile Mathematics

The LDP–Ishin framework continues to operate in the narrowest of margins. Even together, the two parties remain one seat shy of a Lower House majority, making every procedural decision hostage to turnout and timing. The much-discussed proposal to reduce Diet seats by ten percent has nearly exhausted its political oxygen. The resistance is not ideological but personal. Very few incumbents appear inclined to legislate themselves out of office.

As that issue fades, Ishin’s alternative priority has quietly risen: formal recognition of Osaka as a secondary capital. That designation is not symbolic alone. It implies physical relocation of agencies, infrastructure investment, and a slow rebalancing of political gravity away from Tokyo. It is a long game, but one that survives the collapse of seat reform.

Inside the LDP, a more subtle transition is underway. Taro Asō has confirmed this will be his final electoral cycle. His faction remains the last intact power bloc, and there is no obvious heir. What comes next is unlikely to resemble succession. It is more likely to look like diffusion, with influence splintering outward and younger figures attempting to consolidate space.

Behind closed doors, some party elders continue to quietly float the possibility of an early 2026 election should approval ratings remain durable. For now, the priority is simpler: survive December with a budget passed and no fractures that widen publicly.

Economy: A Package So Large It Moves Markets

The yen closed Friday at 157.2, its weakest level in months. The move was not abrupt — and that may be what unsettled traders most. A currency that drifts is often judged differently than one that falls.

The immediate pressure point is the government’s fiscal announcement: a ¥23.1 trillion stimulus package, including ¥17.7 trillion in supplemental budget spending. The scope spans cost-of-living support, fuel subsidies, AI and semiconductor investment, shipbuilding, cyber resilience, and accelerated defense procurement. It is the largest non-pandemic intervention in decades.

Markets are less focused on intention than on funding. Issuance at this scale places downward pressure on the yen at precisely the moment when interest rate normalization remains distant. Statements from the Bank of Japan suggest policy adjustment is more likely late winter than early winter, leaving a wide differential between Japanese and U.S. rates.

The Prime Minister convened a high-level meeting this week with the Finance Minister, the BOJ Governor, and the Economic Revitalization Minister in an effort to display coordination. What remains absent is appetite — either in Tokyo or Washington — for overt intervention unless volatility sharpens dramatically.

The stimulus is popular politically. It also exposes Japan to fresh scrutiny from markets that are increasingly sensitive to fiscal credibility.

Foreign Affairs: Beijing’s Response

The Prime Minister’s comment in the Diet that a Taiwan contingency would pose an existential threat to Japan triggered an immediate response from Beijing — not through formal protest alone but through commerce.

China announced partial reductions in outbound tourism to Japan and implemented new restrictions on food imports. Scallop shipments in Hokkaido stalled mid-season. Airlines adjusted schedules. Beef and seafood sectors are now monitoring developments daily.

Diplomatically, emissaries were summoned back and forth. Economically, the response has already landed.

This tension unfolded against a familiar security backdrop: increased maritime activity near the Senkakus, Russian exercises near the Northern Territories forcing commercial rerouting, and North Korean testing of solid-fuel delivery systems. In the South China Sea, standoffs continued without escalation.

Japan’s defense response remains quiet but concrete — accelerated procurement, integrated air defense planning, expanded drone surveillance, and stepped-up maritime monitoring. Rhetoric aside, policy is increasingly framed around timelines, not theories.

Scandals and Sensitivities Unwelcomed

Three political funding controversies continued to ripple this week.

Internal Affairs and Communications Minister Yoshimasa Hayashi remains under scrutiny for reporting irregularities. Economic Security Minister Minoru Kiuchi is facing parallel attention, an awkward timing given his role shepherding the stimulus package. Ishin co-leader Fumitake Fujita has been linked to a printing enterprise operated by an aide.

None of these stories appears decisive on its own. Collectively, they shape vulnerability. In a minority government, execution matters and so does timing. Every unresolved headline becomes a negotiation tax.

Q&A

• How can Japan reduce waste and tighten oversight in large-scale fiscal programs?
• Why do religious groups retain political influence in Japan?
• Which opposition party currently presents the greatest challenge?
• What happens when Taro Asō retires?
• How do other parties view Ishin’s demands?
• Will China’s actions reinforce regional security alliances?
• Where do U.S.–Japan investment agreements now stand?
• How is Japan positioning toward the Global South?
• Is there room for a genuine common-sense political bloc?

In Closing

Episode 250 arrived at a moment when momentum and risk appear to be accelerating in equal measure. The Prime Minister returns from Johannesburg to a calendar that does not pause and a coalition that cannot drift.

The stimulus bill, the currency, and relations with Beijing will now evolve within the same compressed window.

The question for the coming weeks will not be whether policy moves — but which pressures begin to dictate the tempo.

Thank you for reading, watching, and staying part of the conversation.
Join us next Sunday at 8:20 AM JST as we follow the closing weeks of the extraordinary Diet session and the final shape of Japan’s largest fiscal intervention in a generation.