Japanese Politics Updates – November 16, 2025

Good morning, and welcome to the recap of Japanese Politics One-on-One Episode 249, broadcast live across YouTube, Facebook, LinkedIn, and Clubhouse. Japan’s first female Prime Minister, Sanae Takaichi, is a few days away from the one-month mark in office. The early diplomatic fanfare has faded; the real test has begun.
Her premiership faces the same headwinds that humbled her predecessors: coalition arithmetic, policy bottlenecks, and the long shadow of Japan’s slow-growth economy. But she also carries something rare in Nagatacho today: political momentum and public curiosity. This is the moment when that can either turn into confidence or evaporates into fatigue. 

Headline Takeaways

• Honeymoon over, reality bites: Takaichi returns from her global debut to a packed Diet agenda and rising political costs.
• Ishin tension grows: The alliance remains tactical; the “10-point reform” package looks like it may splinter before the Session’s end.
• ¥17 trillion stimulus package advances: Fiscal relief outweighs reform — households win, but budget hawks worry.
• Yen hovers at ¥154–155/$: BOJ signals vigilance; intervention remains a real possibility.
• Foreign policy hardens: A Taiwan “contingency equals existential threat” doctrine sets Japan’s clearest red line in decades.
• Scandals linger: Political fund irregularities cast a shadow on reform credibility.
• All eyes on December 17: The close of the extraordinary Diet session will decide whether Takaichi stabilizes her coalition or slides into stalemate.

Politics: Managing the Minority

Takaichi’s government entered the 53-day extraordinary Diet session on October 21 with just enough numbers to survive but not enough to steer confidently. The LDP’s 191 seats and Ishin’s 41 together fall one short of a Lower House majority, a thin wire to balance on in the best of times.

Her political strategy so far has been one of sequencing: pass the stimulus first, defer divisive reforms until later. The logic is clear: buy time, build credibility, and preserve Ishin’s cooperation long enough to see the session through. But that patience is wearing thin. Ishin’s “ten must-pass reforms”, including the 10% Diet seat reduction and a ban on corporate donations, are politically popular but institutionally explosive.

Even sympathetic LDP members are balking at what they privately call “self-inflicted amputation.” Without progress, Ishin risks losing face with its reformist base. With too much, the LDP risks rebellion from its backbenchers. The Diet arithmetic forces constant improvisation and constant compromise.

Behind the scenes, party elders are already whispering about a snap election in early 2026 if Takaichi’s approval holds above 45%. A quick election could reset the math, though the risk of backlash from an exhausted public remains high. For now, the Prime Minister’s goal is simple: get to December 17 intact, with the budget passed and Ishin still on board.

Economy: Relief First, Reform Later

The centerpiece of the government’s domestic program is the ¥17 trillion supplemental budget, focused on cost-of-living relief, fuel subsidies, and local economic support. The political message is as clear as the fiscal one is muddled: this is about people, not ideology.

Yet markets are watching. The yen closed the week at ¥154.80 to the dollar, hovering dangerously close to the ¥155psychological line that often triggers covert intervention. The BOJ remains cautious, but pressure is mounting from both Washington and Tokyo to show coordination and to avoid the optics of another “currency skirmish” just as the Trump administration rolls out tariff adjustments.

Governor Ueda’s tone at the November 7 Growth Strategy Panel was notably firmer, aligning more closely with Takaichi’s own language about “stabilizing household expectations.” Ishin’s Yoshimura also joined that meeting, signaling the coalition’s desire to show fiscal unity, even as political unity frays elsewhere.

Japan’s macro indicators are mixed: GDP growth projected at 1.2% for 2025, inflation steady around 2.3%, real wages still down 1.4% year-on-year. The trade balance is slowly improving on tourism and energy imports, but the deeper issue remains productivity. Without real wage growth or innovation-driven investment, even a ¥17 trillion package only buys time, not transformation.

Foreign & Security Affairs: A Sharper Edge

Diplomacy remains the one arena where Takaichi shines without qualification. Her early summit tour — Trump in Tokyo, ASEAN in Malaysia, APEC in Seoul — earned her credibility abroad and breathing room at home. The chemistry with Trump was especially noted: direct, warm, and – crucially – mutual.

Yet Japan’s strategic environment grows more perilous by the week.

• China resumed near-daily Coast Guard incursions around the Senkaku Islands after a brief typhoon lull, marking 336 consecutive days of pressure operations.
• Russia extended live-fire exercises near the Northern Territories, forcing LNG tankers to reroute and adding roughly ¥75 million per shipment in fuel costs.
• North Korea, seeking attention during APEC week, fired two short-range missiles into the Sea of Japan, reminding Tokyo that deterrence requires constant vigilance.

In response, the government quietly accelerated procurement schedules for coastal radar systems, drone surveillance, and air-defense integration, small steps that collectively reflect a new strategic realism.

Most symbolically, Takaichi declared that any “Taiwan contingency” would constitute an “existential threat to Japan’s security” – language no Japanese leader has used so unambiguously since the end of World War II. The statement was praised in Washington and Canberra, but criticized by Beijing as “provocative.” Tokyo’s domestic press mostly applauded her clarity, even if the bureaucracy now scrambles to interpret what, precisely, “existential” obliges Japan to do.

Scandals and Sensitivities

Even as the Prime Minister projects resolve abroad, she faces familiar turbulence at home. Allegations of unreported political funds have touched several key figures:

• Foreign Minister Hayashi,
• Economic Revitalization Minister Kiuchi, and
• Ishin co-leader Fumitake Fujita, whose aide allegedly received payments through a subsidiary firm.

None of these cases appears catastrophic yet, but they have shifted media focus from Takaichi’s reform message to her coalition’s credibility. In a minority government, perception equals survival. Each new headline threatens to turn the “Takaichi honeymoon” into the “Takaichi inquest.”

Audience Q&A

• Can the LDP–Ishin partnership survive the reform bottleneck, or is a snap election inevitable?
• Will the stimulus trigger inflation pressure, and how close is the BOJ to stealth intervention?
• Should Japan respond to China’s Osaka consular remarks by expelling the envoy, or is restraint wiser?
• How will China’s “do not travel to Japan” advisory affect the tourism sector?
• Why is domestic rice still expensive despite recent government measures?
• What realistic steps can Japan take to cultivate younger political engagement?
• Is Japan’s Coast Guard equipped to manage sustained gray-zone operations around the Senkakus?
• Could Japan’s defense industrial base become a genuine export engine, and what legal changes would be required?
• How will political funding scandals impact Diet negotiations or next year’s ordinary session?

In Closing

Prime Minister Takaichi’s fourth week marks the end of the beginning. Her diplomatic poise and discipline under pressure have impressed even skeptical observers, but Japan’s political machine is unforgiving. Every day between now and December 17 is a test of her coalition’s cohesion, of her economic credibility, and of her ability to command attention beyond symbolism.

If she passes this phase – stimulus enacted, yen stabilized, Ishin placated – she’ll have earned more than a honeymoon: she’ll have proven she can govern in Japan’s new, fractured era.
If not, she risks joining the long list of prime ministers who discovered that momentum in Tokyo is a currency that depreciates faster than the yen.

Thank you for reading, watching, and sharing. Join us next Sunday at 8:20 AM JST for Episode 250, as we track the closing acts of the Diet session, the final form of the stimulus bill, and the next moves in Japan’s evolving coalition dance.