Japanese Politics Updates – October 5, 2025

Good morning, and welcome to a recap of Japanese Politics One-on-One Episode 243, a staple for those tracking the developments of Japanese politics. This episode aired live on YouTube, Facebook, and LinkedIn. Hosted by Maya Matsuoka, the show—now approaching its five-year anniversary—delivers unfiltered analysis every Sunday.

This week’s broadcast on October 5 coincided precisely with the 60th anniversary of the Tokyo Olympics opening—a poignant reminder of the transformative moments in Japan’s modern history that we’re witnessing today.

The Happoen Event: A Microcosm of Tokyo’s Elite Networks

Before talkking about the happening political shifts, we attended the world’s first meditation competition, on Thursday at the newly restored Happoen garden in Tokyo. As part of our professional services, we helped orchestrate the attendance of high-profile figures, including Akie Abe, wife of the late former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, and former Reconstruction Minister Kazunori Tanaka. The occasion drew professionals and mediation practitioners, including architect Kengo Kuma (designer of the Olympic Stadium), neuroscientist Kenichiro Mogi, and founder Erkin Bek.

Looking ahead, this upcoming weekend is a three-day Sports Day weekend, during which we will broadcast the next episode from Nijima’s port, the third island in the Izu chain, visible from Tokyo on clear days. 

The LDP Election: Sanae Takaichi’s Decisive Victory and Historic Implications

The Liberal Democratic Party’s (LDP) presidential election on October 4 elected Sanae Takaichi, the LDP’s first female leader. She is positioned as Japan’s probable first female prime minister. In a runoff against Shinjiro Koizumi, Takaichi secured 185 votes to his 156, a definitive margin that included 149 lawmaker votes and 36 from party chapters (nearly sweeping the 47 prefectural chapters with 46). This victory marked her third attempt, following bids during Abe’s era and last year’s nine-candidate field, proving that “three’s a charm.”

The process unfolded as classic LDP theater: five initial contenders – Takaichi, Koizumi, Yoshimasa Hayashi (Chief Cabinet Secretary), Motegi, and Kobayashi – were whittled down to two in a frantic 40-minute interlude of kingmaking. Power brokers like former Prime Ministers Aso, Ishiba, Suga, and Kishida scurried about, but Takaichi’s mobilization of the conservative wing ultimately prevailed. Notably, Koizumi’s fresh appeal as the son of former PM Junichiro, backed by an initial 80 pledged votes, fizzled to 143 lawmaker votes and just 11 from chapters. Hayashi, meanwhile, was hampered by his full-time duties as Chief Cabinet Secretary, limiting his ability to engage flamboyantly.

This outcome creates an anomaly: LDP president Takaichi succeeding Ishiba, who remains prime minister until the Diet opens on October 14. Such a transition has never occurred while the LDP held power, amplifying controversy amid Ishiba’s “lame duck” status, especially after his disastrous snap election gamble that eroded LDP majorities in both houses. Japan is expecting a big change, countering stereotypes of stagnation. Takaichi’s ascent, much like the 1964 Tokyo Olympics, heralds a pivot: from postwar remnants melted into Tokyo Tower to a woman leading the world’s fourth-largest economy.

Takaichi’s Profile: Hawkish Heir to Abe, with Thatcherite Resolve

Takaichi has long been seen as Abe’s heir apparent, unaligned with his faction yet his anointed successor. With just one Cabinet post under her belt, she is bold—a regular visitor to Yasukuni Shrine, a fiscal hawk, and a strong advocate for security. She embodies “neo-Abeism” and draws inspiration from Thatcher’s revivalism. In her acceptance speech, she emphasized work ethic, wagging fingers at bureaucrats, diplomats, and Diet peers to tackle defense, geopolitics (including threats from China, Russia, and North Korea), tariffs, and auto export caps at 15%. “Build Japan up again,” she urged, echoing Trump’s momentum without direct imitation.

Expect shifts from Ishiba’s milder defense stance: more aggressive trade scrutiny (such as reevaluating the US$550 billion US investment pledge), ironclad economic security, and reduced fiscal largesse. Markets didn’t open on Friday, so Monday’s reaction will serve as a barometer for her hawkish conservatism. Globally, Taiwan’s President hailed her as a “steadfast friend”; Ishin No Kai’s leader called immediately after her victory; and Israel praised the potential for strengthened alliances, tying into her support for Netanyahu.

Yet, she sails into untested waters: with minimal cabinet experience, she remains an “unknown quantity,” carrying risks of rightward overreach that could alienate moderates.

Coalition Quandary: Navigating a Minority LDP

The LDP’s post-election fragility demands coalitions to secure majorities: in the Lower House (191 LDP + 29 Komeito = 220/465, short of 233); and the Upper House (101 + 25 = 126/248, just over 125). Viable partners include Komeito (pacifist, anti-nationalist, and averse to Yasukuni visits) or alternatives like Ishin No Kai (41 seats, Osaka-based reformers) or the Democratic Party for the People (28 seats, led by Tamaki, who would demand tough negotiations).

Komeito’s 25-year lock on the Transport Ministry (with its ¥1.4 trillion budget for contract patronage) is bolstered by Soka Gakkai’s 8 million block votes, but Takaichi’s hawkishness could strain ties, potentially leading Komeito to bolt. Ishin, ideologically aligned with its hawkish reform and anti-bureaucracy stance, offers synergy through shared Kansai roots, though internal purges (such as ousters of pro-Abe members) add volatility. Tamaki, meanwhile, would likely demand a premium post to join, better than just the Transportation Ministry.

By October 14, His Excellency the Emperor will open the Diet, triggering Ishiba’s resignation and an immediate vote for prime minister (with a runoff if the houses split). On October 15, the new cabinet will be revealed signaling coalitions (for instance, no Tamaki candidacy might indicate a DPP pact). The nation will know the LDP’s four key pillars, Secretary General, Policy Affairs Chief, Parliamentary Chairman, and Research Council Head, tomorrow. This selection will likely feature inner-circle picks and perhaps contenders like Kobayashi, Motegi, and Hayashi to heal party wounds.

Failure to form coalitions risks minority rule or another snap election—echoing Ishiba’s recent lost bet. A lot will unfold in the next 10 days.

Echoes of History: Olympics, Earthquakes, and Reconstruction

October 5 evoked memories of 1964: the Olympics that catalyzed TV and radio broadcasting via Tokyo Tower (built from war scraps), flipping Japan’s self-image. Takaichi’s win mirrors that keystone turning point.

Closer to home, twin 4.5-magnitude earthquakes jolted Chiba and Tokyo around noon on Friday; fortunately, there was no damage or tsunami, but they served as reminders of Japan’s position on the Ring of Fire.

Economic Pulse: Yen Wobbles Amid Inflation Squeeze

The yen closed at 147.41/USD on Friday; Monday’s post-election movements will be telling. The Bank of Japan is delaying rate hikes, benefiting exporters like Toyota through a weak yen, but households are struggling with 15% spikes in food and energy costs, as 2.7% inflation erodes wage gains. August’s trade deficit halved to ¥242 billion from the previous year, but the year-to-date ¥4 trillion signals heavy reliance on imports (particularly US-dollar-denominated food and energy).

CPI stands at 2.7%, with the BOJ’s 2% target still elusive. The Nikkei hit 15-year highs, signaling safe-haven buying, but volatility looms. Gold prices are spiking as well. Auto tariffs, capped at 15% (down from 27%), are hitting companies like Honda ($5B annually); Takaichi vows to contest these if deemed unfair to Japan. Still, reciprocity opens US agriculture access to Japanese markets, somewhat offsetting costs.

The Osaka Expo 2025 anticipates 200,000 daily visitors in the last weeks, eclipsing prior expos and injecting 0.3% to GDP. Post-event plans include a hotel-casino-marriage complex on the reclaimed land.

Geopolitical Storm: From NK Missiles to Global Flashpoints

Japan finds itself in regional crosshairs geopolitically. North Korea’s submarine-launched ICBM test (capable of reaching the US) was unwelcome news, alongside China’s 18 incursions into Japan’s Air Defense Identification Zone and “Joint Sword” drills timed for Taiwan’s October 10 National Day. In the Philippines, water-cannon clashes persist, with US-Japan defense pacts expanding joint training. Russia and China conducted exercises in the Sea of Japan, including anti-submarine and live-fire drills.

Broader tensions include Ukraine (with 300,000 Russian troops and Iskander missiles facing NATO’s 10,000 personnel on the flank); Venezuela (a US $50M bounty on Maduro, 4,500 US troops in the Caribbean, and idled Exxon rigs amid China’s 20% oil reliance); an Israel-Hamas truce push via Netanyahu’s 20-point Gaza plan, accepted for a Sunday release of 48 hostages in exchange for 500 Palestinians and $10B in Qatar/Egypt rebuilding (though Qatar fumes over a Doha bombing); Houthi launches of 15 drones at Tel Aviv; and false reports of a Chinese flotilla.

In Europe, migrant riots stem from immigration protests, with 25,000 Channel crossings into the UK this year. The US has sealed borders and moved to extractions (800 arrests in Chicago, National Guard in DC and Portland). Broader observations point to the ingredients for WWIII simmering, often covered up to avoid panic. Takaichi’s push for Quad and Five Eyes alliances, along with defense exports ($100B in Australian drones, $800M in Philippine missiles), counters Article 9 limits. Mitsubishi Heavy anticipates 50,000 jobs from a new defense industry sales push.

Immigration rhetoric, including Sanseito’s anti-foreigner surge, carries risks, but labor imports are essential, fears of an overly aggressive Prime Minister Takaichi may be overblown, but spy prevention laws are likely on the horizon.

Q&A: Audience Probes on Coalitions, Immigration, and Trump

This portion was vibrant:

• Who is on Takaichi’s team, and what about Ishin synergy and Komeito’s transport ministry lock?
• What is Takaichi’s innovation potential post-Koizumi and Hayashi?
• What is Takaichi’s policy on foreigners?
• How will Takaichi balance toughness on illegals/spies with the need for productive labor inflows?
• What is the potential rapport between Trump and Takaichi, and how could a strong Japan aid US disengagement?
• Is a Sanseito coalition possible if the LDP remains lukewarm?
• Is Lower House dissolution likely, and is a Trump meeting ready?
• What is the potential for healthcare and wellness as the next economic boom?
• How strong is LDP support, and can it mollify the left while providing a runway for new leaders?

In closing: A Turning Tide for Japan

This week crystallized change: Takaichi’s rise challenges norms, fortifying Japan amid global tempests. As politics sails onward, so does this show, anchoring viewers through uncertainty. Share if you found it insightful, and subscribe for more.