Japanese Politics Updates – June 22, 2025

Broadcast Date: Sunday, June 22, 2025
Location: Hello again Japan Hands — reporting this week from the port of Hota on the Chiba coast, tied to a floating dock, rocking gently in the wind. Today, major developments. Let’s dive-in before the news cycle (Iran bombing) sweeps us all away:

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In this update:

• Diet Session Closes: Japan’s 150-day ordinary Diet session ended Friday, two days ahead of its June 23 constitutional deadline. The budget passed, no confidence motion averted, Mr. Ishiba solidly “in” as PM for the forseeable future, i.e., ~two months?

• Tokyo Elections Underway: Voting for all 127 seats in the Tokyo Metropolitan Assembly takes place today amid record number of candidates vieing for these seats and a record number of women-candidates. We hear there is high public interest… but let’s see what voter turnout actually is.

• Upper House Campaign Approaches: Campaigning has already started but formal campaigning and candidate shut-off date is July 3 (in 10 days). Vote-counting on July 20. The parties are aligning & testing their positions in to-be-published manifestos. PM Ishiba’s LDP is promising economic stimulus, 100% salary increases, huge GDP growth in GDP, direct cash payments, rice price relief, gas subsidies, etc. and etc.

• US-Japan Trade & Security Strains: Tariff negotiations with the Trump administration remain unresolved. It is inaccurate to say PM Ishiba came back from the G-7 ‘empty-handed’ because the expetations have not only been tempered, but the upcoming “2+2” security dialogue has been cancelled with 10 days notice. This is significant, signaling growing & increasingly broad resistance to U.S. pressure.

• Defense Spending Demands Spike: Trump-era demands for Japan to raise defense spending to 3.5% (or more) of GDP have stirred alarm in Tokyo, especially amid inflation, energy insecurity, difficult elections, etc.

• Rice Price Crisis: Minister Koizumi’s aggressive release of stockpiled rice and media visibility have steadied prices and lifted public approval. His appointment appears to have stabilized the LDP’s standing and (importantly) pushed PM Ishiba’s approval-rating up four-plus points.

• Historic Committee Ejection: For the first time ever, opposition parties succeeded in removing a standing Committee Chair (Tatsunori Ibayashi, Financial Affairs), cementing in a very real way the LDP’s weakened grip on political power.

• Foreign Policy & Global Turbulence: The Iran conflict escalated enormously today as U.S. bunker-buster airstrikes have concluded successfully, it is reported. Japan has already evacuated nationals from Iran and Israel in a first wave but now, more urgently, in a second wave GOJ is bussing executives and their families and diplomats out of Isreal (~1,000+) and Iran (~300+). Japan’s Self Defense Force dispatched today two C-2 Cargo planes to the airport in Djibouti for pick-up.

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DETAILED COMMENTARY

A Tumultuous Political Week at Home and Abroad

This week saw by both domestic political realignments and increasing international tension. Broadcasting from the deck of Gryms in the breezy Hota sailing port, I opened with three top themes: the conclusion of the Diet session, the pivotal Tokyo Metropolitan Assembly election, and Prime Minister Ishiba’s scorecard for the Diet Session that ended on Friday.

The Diet session fulfilled its constitutional 150-day mandate without extension—a rarity in recent years. Despite forecasts of turmoil, the Prime Minister managed to pass the record ¥112.6 trillion FY2025 budget. He did so by making concessions across party lines, particularly to the Constitutional Democratic Party (CDP) and Ishin. The achievement, while not flashy, reinforces his claim to political steadiness: you got to give him that.

Tokyo Metropolitan Assembly Election

Today is voting day for the entire 127-member Tokyo Assembly. With 291 candidates from more than 15 parties, this election serves as a bellwether for the Upper House race next month. The LDP currently holds 42 seats, followed closely by Governor Koike’s “Tomin First” party (37) and Komeito (22). All eyes are on Ishimaru’s new “Path to Rebirth” party, contesting all 42 districts with candidates recruited from over 1,000 applicants. If there is going to be a realignment, it will likely only be minor: maybe Tomin First eclipses the LDP in numbers? 

If Path to Rebirth gains 10 seats, that will mark a generational political shift, possibly paving the way for significant national participation in the Upper House election. Less than an even chance.

Upper House Elections and Policy Messaging

Formal campaigning begins July 3, with voting slated for July 20. The LDP aims to hold ground amid economic anxiety, offering direct cash payments (¥20,000 per adult!), fuel subsidies, pledges of 50% salary increases and a ¥1000 trillion GDP by 2040. That is a mouthful.

In contrast, CDP campaigns on a 5% consumption tax cut and political reform. Ishin emphasizes deregulation, free education, and decentralization to break Tokyo’s centralized policy monopoly. Overall, however, the energy & enthusiasm seems to have waned considerably. Tokyo Metro results, as a result, will be a bellwether.

Rice Prices, Gasoline Relief, and Minister Koizumi’s Rise

In what may be the most relatable issue for voters, rice prices are finally declining. Following the resignation of the previous Minister of Agriculture for insensitive comments, Koizumi was tapped as a replacement 3 weeks ago. His actions: rapid release of 910,000 tons of stockpiled rice directly to retailers, and emergency tariff waivers for rice imports, etc., have had immediate impact. Tokyo and Osaka residents now see affordable rice even in convenience stores. His media presence is strong, and internal LDP polling shows his favorability surging.

Foreign Affairs and Trade: Diplomatic Minefields

Prime Minister Ishiba’s week included G7 meetings in Canada, a high-profile dinner with Germany’s President on Wednesday night, and now a trip to the NATO Summit in The Hague starting in three days! Simultaneously, Minister Akazawa, Japan’s lead trade negotiator, is under pressure over stalled tariff talks with the U.S. Trump who demands 25% auto tariffs and a 3.5% defense spending commitment.

In defiance, Japan canceled the July 3rd “2+2” security dialogue, signaling its unwillingness to be bullied. Though Trump’s negotiators suggest talks could continue past the July 9 deadline, no agreement seems imminent. And clearly the Japanese are starting to hold their ground. A breakthrough just before the July 20 elections would be a huge gift to the LDP, but it looks like the July 9 deadline will be breached.

Energy Crisis & Middle East Escalation

Meanwhile, Japan faces risk from Middle East instability. With 90% of oil imports passing through the Strait of Hormuz and 7% sourced directly from Iran, U.S. strikes on Iranian targets (confirmed during our live broadcast) pose logistical and strategic hazards. Japan has begun evacuating its nationals and stationing C2 transports in Dubai. Oil prices have surged 10% over the last week; expect more action after today for sure.

No Confidence Motion Averted, but Committee Chair Ejected

Despite talk of a no-confidence motion, CDP leader Noda demurred—perhaps wisely—given the 233-vote threshold. But in a historic twist, the opposition ganged-up together to eject LDP committee chair Tatsunori Ibayashi over his handling of gasoline tax deliberations. This maneuver, though symbolic, shook the LDP’s aura of control.

Public Sentiment and Prime Minister’s Standing

With approval ratings rebounding to ~35%, PM Ishiba appears to have weathered this legislative term with his grip intact. No double-election was triggered. Though his party remains 13 seats short of a Lower House majority, the mood has stabilized. He avoided major scandal, responded decisively to the rice issue, and maintains international visibility.

Whether this is enough to retain leadership post-Upper House election remains to be seen. But for now, he’s on the scoreboard.

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Questions & Answers Highlights 

• Does the resumption of Russian oil imports signal Japan’s emergence as a more “normal nation”?
• With the gasoline tax repeal scrapped, will there be accountability if oil imports are disrupted… will there be someone to ‘blame’ for the lack of foresight?
• Could Noda revisit the no-confidence motion after the Upper House election and as tariff talks conclude?
• Trump is now asking for 3.5% defense spending—how can Japan possibly fund that?

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FINAL THOUGHTS

From the deck of Gryms, as the sails flap in the Tokyo Bay breeze, I reflect on this extraordinary juncture in Japanese politics. With Diet closed, ballots cast in Tokyo, and geopolitical tensions abroad, we now move into the final sprint toward the Upper House elections… exactly 28 days away.

This week reminds us that Japan’s political equilibrium is precarious but intact. The PM dodged a no-confidence bullet, won the budget battle, and may yet escape Trump’s tariff hammer. Rice prices fell, approval numbers rose. It’s not flashy governance. It’s functioning governance. And that, for now, is enough.

See you next Sunday.

—Timothy Langley Langley Esquire | Japanese Politics One-on-One