Japanese Politics Updates – May 4, 2025

Golden Week Diplomacy, Yen Weakness, and Political Winds Ahead of Summer Elections

Broadcast date of the update: Sunday, May 4, 2025

Context & Setting

• • Aired during the midpoint of Golden Week, Japan’s major Spring holiday period.

• • Broadcast streamed across YouTube, LinkedIn, Facebook and Clubhouse, from the poop deck of the good ship Gryms this morning.

• • Hosted by Maya Matsuoka with featured speaker Timothy Langley, reporting from the fishing port of Katsuyama on the Chiba coast.

Opening Remarks & Overview

• • Episode 221 of Japanese Politics One-on-One, every week for the last 221 consecutive Sundays!

• • Golden Week offers rare vacation time—and is used strategically by politicians.

Domestic Political Landscape

• • Tokyo Metropolitan Government Election: 127 seats up for election; a key indicator for national trends, in the same day as the current Diet Session ends: portends a lot.

• • Upper House Election Campaign: Begins post-Diet (June 20), closely tied to Tokyo’s election results.

• • Players include Ishimaru (fielding 20 candidates), Ishin no Kai, Constitutional Democratic Party, and DPP (who wants to repeat their 250% growth in Upper House numbers as in the last national election in October).

International Affairs & Cabinet Travel

• • 14 Cabinet members traveled abroad during Golden Week.

• • Destinations include: Vietnam, Philippines, EU, U.S., Taiwan, China, India, Indonesia, Thailand, Malaysia.

• • Highlight: PM Ishiba’s high-visibility trip to Vietnam and Philippines tied to defense cooperation.

Trade & Economic Outlook

• • Second Round of U.S.-Japan Tariff Talks: led by Minister Akazawa, inconclusive; two meetings over two days, for about 4 hours collectively; PM Kishida disappointed.

• • Automobile tariffs (25%) remain unchanged; U.S. holds firm.

• • Yen closed at ¥144.96/USD; Bank of Japan predicts no short-term recovery, actually more dour than just that.

• • BoJ Governor Ueda downplays ability to rein in inflation; rice prices nearly doubled YoY.

• • Speculation that U.S. Treasury bond sales were a pressure tactic by Japan: seems to have generated a reaction.

South Korea’s Political Crisis

• • President Yoon impeached due to his attempted martial law which failed in less than 24 hours.

• • Acting PM Han Duck-soo resigns to run; Education Minister Lee serves as interim.

• • Crisis jeopardizes trilateral alignment with U.S. and Japan.

• • Finance Minister Choi Sang-mok resigns on Thursday (to dodge impending impeachment?)!

Domestic Economic Countermeasures

• • Discussion to suspend consumption tax on food for one year gaining traction.

• • CDP reversed position in support of tax relief for struggling households, a bold move yet not appreciated by everyone.

Campaign Law and Digital Politics

• • Concerns over use of social media in campaigns (e.g., surprising results of Ishimaru in Tokyo Governor’s election, candidate abuse of billboard spaces, loud-speaker interruption of competing candidate’s stump speeches, etc.).

• • Electoral law not keeping pace with digital campaigning—calls for reform growing.

Q&A Highlights (extracts from questions poised)

• • Yen likely to fluctuate between ¥130–¥148 over the narrow band of the next 6 months.

• • Public sentiment more tied to rising prices than currency figures.

• • Politicians use foreign travel to build profile, not so much (this time) to avoid accountability or media spotlight.

• • Japan’s U.S. bond holdings may be used for diplomatic leverage.

• • No-confidence vote unlikely due to timing and political risk: without CDP enthusiasm, it is not going to happen.

• • Campaign law reform likely—but slowly.

• • Job market healthy for youth, especially in digital and agriculture sectors.

• • Tokyo election likely to set tone for Upper House race.

• • Political awareness growing among younger generations.

• • DPP’s campaign activities are already visible in Tokyo during Golden Week.