Japanese Politics Updates – April 20, 2025

Welcome to the synopsis of the 219th weekly briefing “Japanese Politics One-on-One”. To watch the session, please click on the image above.

 Headline Points

• The yen continues its rally: closed at $/¥142.15, marking three straight weeks of strengthening.
• Consumption tax on food may be eliminated: a major shift under discussion in the Diet.
• Trump tariffs: Japan’s negotiators return from DC; a 90-day countdown begins.
• Inflation bites: rice up 92% YoY, over 4,500 food items saw April price hikes.
• Japan joins major joint drills in the Philippines for the first time as an active participant.
• Ambassador George Glass arrived in Tokyo on Friday, starting his very looked-forward-to tenure.
• Upper House election dynamics heat up; LDP grapples with candidate confusion.
• Snap Lower House election? Speculation regarding tariff talks failure.
• Tourism explodes: over 10.5 million visitors in Q1, led by Americans and Canadians.
• The yen as a safe haven: investors flee USD volatility, eye BoJ’s next rate decision.

Main Briefing

Golden Week winds build
We kicked off Easter Sunday under overcast skies but with plenty of heat in Japanese politics. This year’s Golden Week is fragmented, but I’ll be at sea regardless, broadcasting from Gryms and trying to keep the wind off the mic.

Yen Watch
The yen closed at $/¥142.15, up from 143 and 145 in the last two previous weeks. That’s three weeks of strengthening in a row. This trend is stirring concern in the export sector, but global uncertainty is pushing investors to safer assets — and the yen is looking pretty attractive. This trend is expected to trigger further speculation and fueling, therefore, even more strengthening.

Consumer prices soar
March was brutal. Over 4,500 items increased in price. Rice is up an eye-watering 92% year-on-year, the sharpest spike since 1971. Food inflation hit 7.4%; overall inflation is holding at 3.2% YoY. The pall of tariffs hits the Ishiba Administration particularly hard under this cloud of unrelenting price increases.

Consumption Tax Proposal
In response, the Diet is weighing an emergency rollback of the 8% consumption tax on food to zero! The move is politically strategic ahead of Upper House elections but hits hard the already depleted revenue-flow into the government to pay for the Budget that just passed 20 days ago! As a result, expediency confronts fiscal responsibility: the LDP and CDP are experiencing an internal split. Komeito pushes hard for zero, Ishin wants to not just cut the consumption tax but also cut gasoline tax and insurance premiums; the DPP proposes cutting all consumption taxes (the 8% on foodstuffs AND the overall 10% overall on consumption) to a flat 5%.

Akazawa’s DC Debrief
Lower House Member (brought in as a consequence of PM Koizumi years ago) Yoichi Akazawa returned from DC after whirlwind meetings with President Trump, Treasury, Commerce, and USTR officials. The meeting with Trump wasn’t even conveyed to the visitors until landing. A 90-day tariff grace period is now underway. Negotiations are wide-ranging but particularly heated on autos and non-tariff barriers.

Ambassador George Glass Lands
Trump appointee George Glass arrived in Tokyo on Friday. He’s expected to formally present credentials to Emperor Naruhito soon. That constitutional step will mark the official beginning of his important role here.

BOJ and Interest Rates
Investor confidence is dipping. Speculation is rife that the BoJ might raise rates again. After the last hike from 0.25% to 0.5%, the markets are bracing. The BoJ meeting on April 30-May 1 will be a key inflection point and something that draws our attention. We will report on it that weekend (as usual).

SDF Joins Balikatan 2025
Japan’s Self-Defense Forces will actively participate in the Balikatan drills in the Philippines for the first time, alongside the US, Australia, and the Philippines. It’s a small contingent — 150 troops, one destroyer and one frigate — but symbolically big. 15,000 soldiers also participated, with the US presence exceeding 9,000 personnel. 

Upper House Election Chess
A Tokyo District Upper House seat is cause for headache: the LDP identified a female candidate and has been prepping her for months. She was just dropped due to her criticism of the party (which recently came to the surface). Nobuteru Ishihara, son of the former Tokyo governor, had been circling for that open slot after his Lower House defeat in the last election by a CDP candidate. He surprisingly needs an endorsement by the LDP for this Upper House seat.

Since he desperately wants to return to parliament (he once even was Secretary General of the LDP!), and with the DPP desperate to mirror their 250% growth in the last election, a floating, searching Nobuteru could pursue a party split or even independent run. Something to watch carefully: the likelihood of the LDP losing their majority in the Upper House, too, is a daunting prospect, so acts of desperation will become more-and-more apparent as this fight approaches in 9 weeks!

Tourism Surges
Cherry Blossom Season sent tourism through the roof. Japan welcomed over 10.5 million tourists in Q1 alone. Notably, the top visitors were from the U.S. and Canada — not China or Korea as in previous years. Expect record-breaking numbers for 2025.

Questions from the Audience Answered Exclusively during the Briefing

1. What level of tariffs will be triggered if no tariff deal is reached in 90 days?
2. Could failed negotiations trigger a Lower House snap-election?
3. Are central bank statements from Japan and the U.S. driving bond market shifts?
4. What role do US’s trade-in-services play in the U.S.-Japan trade imbalance?
5. Can Japan and the U.S. cooperate on Ukraine’s post-war technological development?
6. Does a “good deal” necessarily mean a ‘bad deal” for the other party? How does one reach an agreement without looking like a loser?
7. Will Ambassador Glass formally present his credentials soon?