Japanese Politics Updates – March 23, 2025

Welcome, Japan Hands! Spring has finally arrived in Tokyo. Broadcasting once again from the deck of the good ship Gryms—anchored but not idle—we welcome you to your weekly dive into Japan’s ever-evolving political landscape. This week’s episode brings us right into the eye of the storm: with the national budget days from final passage, Prime Minister Ishiba is under intensified scrutiny and Japan’s political class is beginning to fracture in ways not seen in years.

Let’s unpack the drama.

• The Yen closed at $/¥149.33, weakening again a tad from last week.
• Ishiba’s Worsening Crisis: One Misstep Too Many? With just over a week left before the end-of-month budget deadline, PM Ishiba’s political capital continues to erode:

• The Voucher Fallout Grows: public outrage intensified over Ishiba’s controversial gifting of ¥100,000 (≈$670) in shopping vouchers to 15 first-term LDP lawmakers following a private dinner inside the PM’s residence. Despite his claim that it was a personal gesture of gratitude, the move was widely interpreted as an attempt to build a loyal internal base amid rising opposition. All 15 recipients have now returned the vouchers.
• Internal LDP Revolt: multiple heavyweight voices within the LDP are publicly distancing themselves, with influential factions meeting privately (notably Aso, Kishida, and Motegi) in moves many interpret as prelude to a leadership change.
• Sliding Support: polls released Monday show Ishiba’s support has dropped to 30–31%, his lowest since taking office. The slide reflects disapproval of both the PM and his cabinet’s handling of core issues.

Should Ishiba survive long enough to pass the budget (now in Upper House deliberations), many expect the push for leadership change to intensify immediately afterward.

Double Election Speculation Nears Boiling Point

With the Tokyo Metropolitan elections to take place on June 22, followed by the Upper House campaign kicking off June 26, the stage is set:

• Lower House Precarity: The LDP remains 13 seats short of a Lower House majority. In the Upper House, the LDP can afford to lose up to 15 seats and still retain control with Komeito. But…
• Timing is critical: should the LDP wish to replace PM Ishiba ahead of a possible double election on July 13, a move can only be made right after the budget passes, and quickly, in order to allow enough political space for the switch to generate positive traction.
• Opposition Eyes Opportunity: Parties like Ishin-no-Kai and the DPFP are already maneuvering aggressively, fielding strong candidates in Tokyo districts and hoping to exploit LDP instability.

Whether the LDP triggers a simultaneous Lower House election, or the collective Opposition does, remains uncertain—but the winds of change are blowing stronger by the day.

Japan-China-South Korea Trilateral: Optics Over Outcomes? 

This weekend, Japan hosted long-delayed economic talks with China and South Korea at Tokyo’s New Otani Hotel:

• Heavy Security, Light Deliverables: A massive police presence secured the summit, but expectations were low for major breakthroughs.
• Geopolitical Context: China remains Japan’s largest trading partner, yet tensions over the Fukushima water release and South Korean political uncertainty loom large.
• Military Maneuvers: Curiously timed, China launched its largest naval and aerial presence near Taiwan since last October, on Tuesday… just days before these Tokyo talks.

The meetings served more as stage-setting than substance—but the optics underscored the shifting power dynamics in East Asia. We will know more about this in coming days/weeks.

US-Japan Relations: Tariffs, Troops, and Trumpian Demands 

President Trump’s second Administration is already reshaping the alliance:

• Tariff Tensions Escalate: two Japanese Ministers of State traveled to D.C. and Canada this week seeking relief from steep US tariffs on steel and aluminum—but were rebuffed. Looming threats on auto exports continue to spook Japanese markets.
• Military Footprint Debate: Trump is pressuring Japan to increase defense spending and may scale down the US presence in Japan, including a rumored reassessment of the Status of Forces Agreement (SOFA).
• Strategic Calculations: while Secretary of Defense Hackett claimed Guam is the most important US base in Asia, Japan’s centrality to American military operations—especially Okinawa—cannot be overstated. Any drawdown would demand Japan expand its own defense posture, which may accelerate plans to revise Article 9.

Shohei Ohtani, Baseball Diplomacy & Economic Windfall  

Ohtani’s triumphant return with the LA Dodgers electrified Tokyo:

• MLB Season Opener: four games (two exhibitions, two official) played before sold-out 40,000-seat crowds at Tokyo Dome.
• Staggering Viewership: Over 25 million Japanese tuned-in; total merchandise sales exceeded $40 million in just hours.
• Soft Power in Action: The event reaffirmed the cultural closeness of the US and Japan, with corporate Japan (especially Dentsu) reaping major benefits.

Aum Shinrikyo Anniversary & Political Parallels 

This week marked 30 years since the Tokyo subway sarin gas attack:

• A Reminder of Radicalism: the event, led by cult leader Shoko Asahara, remains etched in the national psyche and changed at a structural-level many things about contemporary Japan.
• Unification Church Fallout Continues: once central to the Abe Faction’s scandal, the Church is expected to lose its religious status by the end of this month, another political flashpoint now overshadowed by newer crises. Seems like old news now but it was the top of the Press 18 months ago.

Osaka Expo 2025: Political Bargaining Chip? 

Governor Yoshimura of Osaka (who is also head of Ishin-no-Kai) continues lobbying the central government:

• Seeking LDP Backing: a behind-the-scenes quid-pro-quo may explain Ishin-no-Kai’s budget support, possibly including PM attendance at the Expo and US VP J.D. Vance’s expected appearance.

The Expo begins April 16 and runs for six months—watch closely for signals of political alignment.

Questions from the Audience Addressed Exclusively During the Briefing

• Military Base Leverage: is Japan’s strategic importance (especially Okinawa) enough to counter Trump’s economic pressure?
• Voucher Culture: if this gift-giving tradition has long existed, how does it square with current anti-corruption expectations?
• Abe Widow as a political powerhouse?  Does she have strong ties to Trump; is she possibly a candidate for a seat in the Upper House? What is her play?
• Populism Rising?: do you see growing populist currents in Japan and Korea, and how about this meeting yesterday China/Japan/S.Korea?
• Will the Expo Be Politicized? Doesn’t Osaka need to leverage national attention for political gains, too?

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Final Thoughts: Fragile Leadership, Rising Stakes 

PM Ishiba clings to power, but fractures within the LDP are widening. Japan now faces simultaneous domestic political volatility and international uncertainty. With the budget clock ticking and major elections looming, the coming weeks (days, in fact!) will likely prove decisive for Ishiba’s fate—and for the future of Japan’s political order.

Stay close, stay sharp, and stay informed. Like, Comment, and Share—your support means the world as we continue to unpack the stories that matter most. Until next week — happy o-hanami!