Japanese Politics Updates – November 9, 2025

Good morning, and welcome to a recap of Japanese Politics One-on-One Episode 248, broadcast live across YouTube, Facebook, LinkedIn, and Clubhouse. With Japan’s first female Prime Minister now three weeks into her premiership, Sanae Takaichi’s “honeymoon” period is already showing strain, but some momentum, too. A delicate balance between Ishin’s reform demands, fiscal guardrails, and foreign-policy assertiveness defines this early phase and the coming fortnight may determine whether her minority coalition stabilizes or slips toward gridlock. Here is what we are going to talk about today:

Headline Takeaways

• Honeymoon diplomacy gives way to domestic reality: Takaichi returns from her early summit sprint to confront a crowded Diet and a skeptical opposition.
• LDP–Ishin cooperation still tactical, not structural: Ishin’s ten “must-pass” reforms remain the government’s ticking clock.
• 10% Diet seat cut dominates headlines but faces procedural traps.
• Supplemental budget for fuel and cost-of-living relief progressing faster than political reforms.
• Yen hovers near 155, intervention risk is high, with coordinated messaging between BOJ and MOF tightening after the Nov. 7 growth panel.
• Scandal oxygen: unreported political funds and donor misstatements threaten to sap reform momentum or, at a minimum, create unwanted distraction at a critical period.
• Gray-zone pressure persists: Senkaku patrols, Russian exclusion zones, and North Korean missile signaling all continue, testing Japan’s defense posture and this new Prime Minister.

Politics: Tightrope in the 53-Day Diet

Prime Minister Takaichi’s new government, just 12 days old when the Diet convened on October 21, now faces the crunch of a 53-day extraordinary session ending December 17. The math remains precarious: LDP’s 191 seats + Ishin’s 41 = 232, one short of a majority, forcing reliance on independents and/or the Democratic Party for the People (DPP)… increasingly unlikely as they snuggle-up to the CDP and Komeito.

The government’s first priority is budget passage, not reform. The ¥15 trillion supplemental bill, framed as cost-of-living relief, should clear with support from moderates. But Ishin’s 10-point reform list, especially the 10% seat reduction and corporate-donation ban, tests coalition discipline.

The Prime Minister’s challenge now is sequencing: pass the supplemental bill, preserve the partnership, and survive committee fire. Procedurally, the opposition can filibuster even before reaching a floor vote, a reminder that Japan’s new era of coalition governance is both fragile and improvisational.

Economic Outlook: The 155-Yen Stress Test

The yen closed the week at ¥155.02 to the dollar, the weakest since mid-October and near the intervention thresholdmarkets have been watching for months. The BOJ held steady at its Oct. 31 meeting but faces pressure to shift tone before year-end.

At the Nov. 7 growth panel, Takaichi, BOJ Governor Ueda, and Ishin’s Yoshimura projected alignment on stabilizing the currency, a crucial optic for a new government facing inflation fatigue and household strain.

The IMF pegs Japan’s 2025 GDP growth at 1.2%, inflation at 2.3%, and wages down 1.4% year-on-year. These are numbers that highlight the need for relief-spending without reigniting the debt spiral. Takaichi’s economic credibility will rest on demonstrating control without confrontation, especially with the Trump administration’s trade team already hinting at renewed tariff “discussions.”

Foreign and Security Affairs: Gray-Zone Grind

Diplomatically, the Prime Minister’s early world tour has paid dividend. Among them are strong Trump chemistry, revived Seoul shuttle diplomacy, and quiet coordination with Manila and Taipei.

But gray-zone provocations continue to test Japan’s resolve:

• China resumed Senkaku Coast Guard incursions after a 10-day typhoon lull, marking the 336th consecutive day of near-daily activity.
• Russia completed live-fire drills near the Northern Territories, forcing tanker reroutes and raising LNG costs.
• North Korea, seeking attention during APEC week, kept regional tension on simmer. It fired two short-range ballistic missiles toward the Sea of Japan.

Japan’s defense spending trajectory of 2% of GDP by 2027 remains intact. The rising energy prices and coalition math, however, complicate timing.

Scandals and Sensitivities

The media narrative is turning from “historic first woman PM” to “Takaichi under siege”. Unreported political donations involving Foreign Minister Hayashi, Defense Minister Koizumi’s wife, Minister for Economic Revitalization Kiuchi and most potentially impactful, Fumitake Fujita who is Ishin’ co-leader, have renewed questions about coalition ethics. While not yet fatal, such stories drain political capital and embolden opposition rhetoric about “reform hypocrisy.”

For a leader trying to model discipline and transparency, even peripheral scandals matter. How Takaichi responds will signal whether she governs like an ideologue or a reformer capable of pragmatic restraint.

Audience Q&A

• Will the LDP–Ishin alliance hold?
• Is another election possible this year?
• How serious are the funding scandals?
• Can Japan intervene to defend the yen without angering the U.S.?
• Given that Takaichi has pledged SDF support behind Taiwan I’m curious to hear more about the internal political dynamics discussions of various parties regarding article 9, Ishin’s policy platform, and how party and public sentiment is on this issue. Last I read NIK was for revising article 9 and increased defense spending.
• What would be the internal process politically if Japan were to pivot towards a defense export economy?
• Does Japan have an equivalent to RAND,CSIS,ISW etc?

• Sanae Takaichi is leading Japan’s first female-headed government and also its minority coalition. What is her most viable path to effective governance? Should her strategy focus on building a stable policy-based coalition with opposition parties? Or on calling a snap election to seek her own public mandate, despite the high risk of further losses?
•  Abenomics had, and therefore Takeichinomics likely will have, a component of “Growth strategy that stimulates private investment”.
  Yet are Japanese companies far too top-heavy with too many individuals with exalted titles sitting and doing nothing? Is that a fundamental dampener for effective decision-making? Would any good idea likely be crushed amidst the endless meetings that such mostly non-English-speaking individuals insist on?
• Most Japanese corporate and government officials can read information only in the Japanese language, that is not spoken or used anywhere else in the world. How accurate or comprehensive is their information to be able to make wise strategic choices?
• If Japanese companies today, even those with large retained earnings are so risk averse, what can be done to “Make Japan Great Again” as in the immediate post-War years of incredibly high growth when people’s income did double?
  

In Closing

Prime Minister Takaichi’s honeymoon weeks are nearly over. Her diplomatic debut impressed; her next test is survival under Diet scrutiny. The budget vote, yen stabilization, and first reform bill will define the credibility of Japan’s new era — one that balances ideological conviction with coalition arithmetic.

Join us next Sunday at 8:20 AM JST for Episode 249, as we track the Diet battles, yen moves, and the coalition’s delicate dance through mid-November.

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