Japanese Politics Updates – October 19, 2025

Good morning, and welcome to a recap of Japanese Politics One-on-One Episode 245, a staple for those tracking the developments of Japanese politics. This episode aired live on YouTube, Facebook, LinkedIn, and Clubhouse. The show, steadily approaching its five-year anniversary, delivers unfiltered analysis every Sunday. This week’s broadcast on October 19 comes amid intense political maneuvering, with Sanae Takaichi poised to become Japan’s first female prime minister.

The LDP-Ishin Coalition: Path to Stability

The Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and Nippon Ishin no Kai have agreed to form a coalition government, setting the stage for Sanae Takaichi to become prime minister. After Komeito’s exit from its 26-year alliance with the LDP, the party turned to Ishin, an Osaka-based reform group. Talks intensified last week, culminating in a broad agreement on October 19.

Ishin, with 34 seats, provides the LDP the numbers needed for a plurality in the Lower House (191 LDP + 34 Ishin = 225/465, short of 233 but sufficient for governance on key votes). Ishin’s demands include recognizing Osaka as Japan’s secondary capital, free education through high school, and reducing Lower House seats by 10 to streamline parliament. The LDP has accepted these in principle, though details will be finalized on October 20. Ishin will support Takaichi as prime minister but stay out of the cabinet initially, offering policy influence from outside.

This shift sidelined the Democratic Party for the People (DPFP), led by Yuichiro Tamaki. The party’s demands for the premiership or finance minister role proved too ambitious. Tamaki’s meetings with opposition parties like Komeito and the Constitutional Democratic Party (CDP) alienated the LDP, prompting a rapid pivot to Ishin. If finalized, the coalition could stabilize Takaichi’s administration, allowing a focus on conservative priorities like defense and constitutional revision.

The LDP’s strategy reflects a desire to reclaim its core agenda, freed from Komeito’s pacifist constraints. Article 9 of the Constitution, which prohibits offensive weaponry, may face renewed push for amendment under Takaichi, who favors strengthening Japan’s military posture.

Diet Session and Prime Minister Vote

The extraordinary Diet session opens on October 21, with Emperor Naruhito presiding. Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba will resign by 3 PM, triggering a vote for his successor. Both houses will vote separately; the Lower House’s choice prevails in case of divergence.

Takaichi is the LDP’s candidate, backed by Ishin. The opposition, anchored by the CDP (143 seats), may field Yoshihiko Noda or Tamaki, but a unified front is unlikely. If Takaichi wins on the first round, it’s a strong signal of support; otherwise, a runoff follows. Cabinet announcements are expected on October 22, with Takaichi’s policy speech on October 24 or 25. The session runs 52 days, ending December 13, focusing on supplemental budgets and economic stimulus.

Yen Strengthens Amid Uncertainty

The yen strengthened slightly last week, closing at 149.50/USD on October 17, up from 152.10 the prior week. This reflects market anticipation of political stability. Inflation at 2.3% continues to erode real wages (down 1.4% year-on-year in August). Meanwhile unemployment holds at 2.5% with 1.3 million vacancies. The Nikkei dipped amid uncertainty but remains near 48,570 highs on stimulus bets.

Rising Tensions in the Region

Japan faces escalating regional threats. China’s Coast Guard incursions near the Senkaku Islands increased last week, with armed vessels raising alarms. Russia restricted free passage around the Northern Territories (Kuril Islands), violating international maritime law; Japan’s Foreign Ministry lodged a protest. North Korea showcased an enhanced ICBM with nuclear capabilities during a parade, developed with Russian assistance, heightening risks.

President Trump’s Asia visit at month-end includes three days in Japan (October 27-29), with meetings at Akasaka Detached Palace, the emperor, and a Quad-focused presser at Yokosuka. This coincides with APEC in South Korea, while Trump may meet Putin in Budapest to discuss Ukraine. Other flashpoints include Venezuela (U.S. Marines poised, Japanese oil imports at risk), Ukraine (Tomahawk deliveries), and Haiti/Syria/Sudan conflicts, all impacting global energy and Japan’s economy.

Osaka Expo Conclusion: A Mixed Legacy

The six-month Osaka Expo ended on October 13, drawing 25.5 million visitors and generating ¥117 billion in revenue. While below the 28 million target, it surpassed break-even and boosted GDP by 0.3%. Post-event, the reclaimed site will host a hotel-casino-marriage complex, extending economic benefits.

Questions From The Audience

·  Reports indicate LDP had prepared the position of finance minister for DPFP (the democratic party for the people) but because of Mr. Tamaki’s meeting with Kato and the constitutional democratic party of Japan LDP moved rapidly with Ishin. It appears that Ishin-no-Kai may be the sole major party coalition partner for LDP as I had predicted months ago. Did Mr. Tamaki overplay his hand by assuming that he was a credible candidate for prime minister when the Democratic Party for the people only has 6% of the seats in the House of Representatives?

·  If Ms. Takaichi accepts the Ishin Party’s demands, will she be able to reach an agreement with the local elected members of the LDP? Where will the cuts come from?

·    Will there be any blowback to the Isshin no Kai from the coalition with LDP or does the largely Osaka base view this as just something happening up there in Tokyo?

·  Eliminating the proportional representation seats may be the easiest way to reduce the number of parliamentarians. How do you think such objectives are achievable? Mr. Yoshimura does have a point when India’s lower house has only 80 seats more than Japan’s while India’s population of 1.4 billion is 10 times larger than Japan’s. 

·  What is Ishin Nokai getting out of this coalition agreement with the LDP? 

·  Is there any chance that Komeito would rejoin the coalition with the LDP?

In Closing

This week highlighted Japan’s political evolution, with Takaichi’s likely premiership and the LDP-Ishin coalition signaling a shift toward conservative reforms. As geopolitical pressures mount, stability in Tokyo is crucial. Join us next Sunday at 8:20 AM JST for Episode 246 to analyze the new cabinet and ongoing developments. Share if insightful, and subscribe for more.

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