Japanese Politics Updates – October 12, 2025

Good morning, everyone! Welcome to Japanese Politics One-on-One Episode 244, your go-to source for navigating the fast-moving world of Japanese politics. I’m Timothy Langley, CEO of Langley Esquire, Tokyo’s oldest government relations and public affairs agency, and I’m joined by host, Maya Matsuoka. As we approach our fifth anniversary, we deliver unfiltered insights every Sunday, live on YouTube, Facebook, LinkedIn, and Clubhouse. This week’s broadcast on October 12, during a three-day Sports Day weekend, finds me reporting from the deck of my sailing yacht, anchored in Hota’s port. Two tropical storms derailed my plans to sail to Niijima, but the political storms in Japan are far more intense, and I’m here to break them down for you.

Komeito’s Exit: A Coalition Bombshell

This week, the political landscape shifted dramatically when Komeito, LDP’s coalition partner for 26 years, announced their exit from the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) alliance on Friday, October 10. I can’t overstate the impact—this is a rare fracture in Japan’s tradition of political unity. Komeito’s 24 Lower House seats, backed by Soka Gakkai’s 8 million voters, were crucial, but Ms. Takaichi’s appointment of Koichi Hagiuda as LDP Secretary General and Ms. Takaichi’s planned visit to Yasukuni Shrine pushed them over the edge. Hagiuda, tied to the Abe faction’s slush fund scandal, symbolized a lack of reform, and Komeito called it quits, leaving the LDP short of a majority: 191 LDP + 24 Komeito = 215/465 Lower House seats (needing 233) and 122/248 Upper House seats (a few under 125).

This move signals a broader shift: parties are breaking from convention, and I see this as a turning point. To fill the gap, Ms. Takaichi has been in talks with Ishin no Kai, the Osaka-based reform party with 38 seats. Ms. Takaichi met their leader, Hirofumi Yoshimura, in Osaka last night, but their push to make Osaka a second capital complicates negotiations. Meanwhile, Ms. Takaichi’s earlier meeting with Yuichiro Tamaki of the Democratic Party for the People (DPP, 28 seats) before Komeito’s Keiichi Saito was a misstep that fueled the split. It’s a numbers game now, and Ms. Takaichi is working to secure a coalition to move forward.

Ms. Takaichi’s  Path to Premiership: A Tightening Race

Last week, I reported on Ms. Takaichi’s victory as LDP president on October 4, defeating Shinjiro Koizumi 185–156 in a runoff, positioning her as Japan’s likely first female prime minister. But the odds have slipped from 95% to about 60% since Komeito’s exit and Ms. Takaichi’s conservative appointments stirred controversy. She named Shunichi Suzuki, Taro Aso’s brother-in-law, to a key LDP policy post, reinforcing Aso’s influence as a kingmaker. She also appointed contender Takayuki Kobayashi to ease tensions, but didn’t offer Koizumi a role, sidelining his and Yoshihide Suga’s factions. This has made Ms. Takaichi’s path to the premiership precarious.

The Diet’s extraordinary session, now set for October 21, will be pivotal. Emperor Naruhito will open proceedings at 10 AM, followed by Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba’s resignation at 3 PM. Then both houses will vote for the next prime minister, with the Lower House’s choice prevailing if the Upper House differs. Without Komeito, Ms. Takaichi needs Ishin or DPP to secure a majority. Tamaki, who’s openly gunning for the premiership, could swing to the opposition Constitutional Democratic Party (CDP, 143 seats) if Ms. Takaichi can’t meet his demands. These next ten days will be make-or-break.

Ishiba’s Lame-Duck Limbo

Ishiba, still prime minister until October 21, is taking heat for the LDP’s weakened position. His snap election last year cost dearly: the joint LDP/Komeito coalition lacks 18 seats for a majority, and poor showings in Tokyo and Upper House elections didn’t help. I believe Mr. Ishiba’s hands-off approach to the Bank of Japan and failure to tackle economic woes paved the way for Ms. Takaichi’s rise, but his lame-duck status leaves Japan in a holding pattern until the Diet vote.

Economic Turbulence: Yen Plunges, Markets Wobble

The yen hit 152.10/USD on Friday, up from 147.48 last week, a level unseen in eight months. The Bank of Japan’s yen-buying intervention drew US criticism, while 2.3% inflation and 15% spikes in food and energy costs are hitting households hard. Real wages dropped 1.4% year-on-year in August, and nominal wages fell 3.4% since July, despite unemployment steady at 2.5% with 1.3 million job vacancies against 1.1 million seekers. The Nikkei soared to 48,570 on October 10, up 1.7% on stimulus hopes, but dipped as Ms. Takaichi’s premiership grew uncertain. Nissan’s $4.5 billion loss and Moody’s downgrade in February signal trouble, with talk of mergers on the horizon. Clearly Ms. Takaichi will push for stronger economic controls, but the markets are watching closely.

Geopolitical Flashpoints: Japan in the Crosshairs

Japan is in a tough spot globally. On October 11, China sent 12 PLA aircraft and eight PLAN vessels into Taiwan’s ADIZ, rattling sabers on Taiwan’s National Day. North Korea’s ICBM parade, attended by Russia’s Dmitry Medvedev, showcased new tech capable of reaching the US, with Kim Jong-un pushing nuclear expansion tied to Russia.

Trump’s 100% tariff on China, in response to their rare earth export halt, escalates trade tensions, while gold ($4,045/ounce, up 50%) and silver prices surge, signaling global conflict fears. Japan’s foreign ministry called out Venezuela’s Maduro, aligning with US concerns, as China signed a defense pact with Caracas. Meanwhile, the Israel-Hamas truce moves forward with hostage releases, but Ukraine escalates with US Tomahawk deployments, and Baltic tensions rise. Trump’s visit to Tokyo on October 27 – meeting the emperor, holding a summit at Akasaka Detached Palace, and a Quad-focused presser at Yokosuka – will put Japan’s leadership under scrutiny.

Immigration Backlash: A Fading Proposal

After TICAD, a plan to pair 10 Japanese cities like Fukuoka and Osaka with African counterparts for labor and study exchanges was shot down, with 70% public opposition driven by economic strain and anti-foreigner sentiment. Japan’s declining birthrate and GDP (now fifth, projected to hit tenth soon) demand labor imports, but Ms. Takaichi’s zero-tolerance visa policy reflects public concerns, even though she lived in the US as a congressional aide and understands a foreigner’s perspective. This issue remains a flashpoint.

Questions From The Audience

• Do the Democratic Party for the People’s Taiwan ties and defense policies conflict with Komeito’s pacifism and PRC ties, and is DPFP posturing to replace Komeito?
• Why doesn’t the LDP create US-style political action committees (PAC) to handle corporate donations indirectly, allowing a claim of no direct party donations?
• Was Takaichi’s election as LDP president a miscalculation, risking fallout, or a deliberate reset for a larger shakeup?
• What are the future prospects for Taro Kono, given his lack of party popularity?
• How does Komeito’s coalition exit potentially impact local voting dynamics, given Soka Gakkai’s influence?
• What is the societal cost of these political shifts?
• How can political turmoil refocus attention on structural issues like economic stimulus, employment restructuring, or unifying Japan’s psyche for the future?
• Is public reactivity to foreigners about their behavior or due to Japanese leadership’s lack of vision for Japan’s future identity?
• Will the LDP president become prime minister, and is Ms. Takaichi just waiting calmly for a wise strategy amid misinformation to emerge?
• Who wields the most power to turn Japan’s fortunes around, and why?
• What is the likelihood of a general election, and how might Sanseito fare post-Upper House success?

In Closing
This week crystallized Japan’s political upheaval: Komeito’s exit and Ms. Takaichi’s uncertain path to the premiership mark a break from the status quo. As I navigate stormy seas on my sailing yacht, Japan faces its own tempests, with a new prime minister just days away. Join us next Sunday at 8:20 AM JST for Episode 245 to stay ahead of these changes. Share if you found this insightful, and subscribe for more.

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