Japanese Politics Updates – September 14, 2025

Broadcast: Sunday, September 14, 2025
Location: on the deck of Gryms, nestled in Nabatahama cove, Shimoda

Hello and welcome to Episode 240; five years strong thanks to you keeping us sharp. It’s a three-day weekend—Respect for the Aged Day tomorrow. This is one of Japan’s 16 holidays, of which 10 join to make three-day weekends! The next one is just a month away: Sports Day, October 13. 

Japan is currently in a whirlwind: Prime Minister Ishiba resigned last Sunday sparking an LDP leadership race; the yen is jittery amid global tensions in the Middle East, Ukraine, Venezula, North Korea, and inside America. Today: the yen, the Nikkei, the tariffs and the US$550 billion from Japan, who will be the next Prime Minister, the ending of the Osaka Expo, geopolitics and as always, a lively Q&A session to wrap-up our weekly briefing. 

Markets & Yen: Feeling the Jitters

Markets are on edge. At Friday’s close, September 12, the yen hit 148.25 to the dollar, down 0.6% from last week, reflecting jitters after Prime Minister Ishiba’s resignation announcement. Volatility marked recent months: early August weakened to 147-148 as the Bank of Japan (BOJ) held rates at 0.5%, a 17-year high from January’s hike, targeting 2% inflation but wary of U.S. tariffs. Late August rallied to 145 on Fed rate cut hopes, then reversed on U.S. jobs data. June saw safe-haven strength amid global recession fears. Ishiba’s exit fuels fears of looser policies from LDP successors.

BOJ Governor Ueda faces pressure, no rate hike this month; October’s on watch. The Fed’s September 5 jobs report signals a rate cut, softening the dollar, adding yen pressure. Watch October’s CPI on the 16th. The Nikkei hit an all-time high of 440,768 Friday, driven by global rate cut optimism and faith in Japan’s export resilience despite yen wobbles. Expect 147-150 until the LDP vote October 4, dovish winner could push to 152-155, BOJ signal might rally to 145. Tariffs and Fed moves remain wild cards.

Diplomatically, High-Level Hustle 

Prime Minister Ishiba’s schedule stayed packed despite his resignation. Last week saw key visits: the Slovak President met Ishiba September 9; Colombia’s leader visited the Osaka Expo September 5; Panama’s leader held a summit and lunch with Ishiba same day. The U.S. Indo-Pacific Commander was in Tokyo all week for a senior leader seminar, boosting military ties. Defense Minister Nakatani’s September 8 Seoul visit, first in 10 years, strengthened U.S.-Japan-South Korea drills.

Ishiba heads to the UN General Assembly in New York, traveling September 22-23, speaking likely September 23. He’ll push a free international order, but his reflection on 80 years since the Pacific War’s end stirs critics fearing reopened wounds with China and South Korea, risking alliances. His Palestinian statehood float aims to boost Japan’s Mideast profile but risks U.S. friction amid Gaza conflicts. These moves show Japan’s resilience, with bureaucrats and ministries holding the global line amid LDP turmoil, hinting at a pendulum swing back to the administrative state.

Indo-Pacific Commander: US Ties Deepen

The U.S. Indo-Pacific Commander’s Tokyo visit last week strengthened U.S.-Japan military ties via a senior leader seminar. It aligns with Japan’s defense push: new missile systems deployed, a railgun tested on a floating platform, defensive under Article 9, signaling a military-industrial shift. This supports Japan-South Korea-U.S. trilateral drills (aerial, naval, cyber) against North Korean threats, with deeper intel sharing planned. It’s about deterrence as China’s Taiwan moves and North Korea’s Russian ties raise stakes. This security blanket supports Japan’s businesses and maritime stability in a tense region.

LDP Leadership Race

Ishiba’s September 7 resignation, citing July’s upper house loss and LDP rifts, sparked an explosive LDP presidential race, vote set for October 4. Last year, nine candidates competed; Ishiba beat Sanae Takaichi in a runoff. Candidates need 20 Diet backers by September 22. No 50% in round one triggers a top-two runoff, with LDP chapters and members voting. 

Contenders: 

Toshimitsu Motegi, 70, ex-faction boss, announced September 2, pushing pay hikes, BOJ normalization, regional subsidies — polls at 6%. 

Takayuki Kobayashi, 50, announced September 11, right-leaning, social media savvy, thin resume — 3.6%. 

Sanae Takaichi, quiet, plans declaration, seeks zero food tax, conservative remake — 28%, Sanso-backed. 

Shinjiro Koizumi, agriculture minister, huddles with allies like Kihara Seiji — 22%, 36% among LDP fans, but some call him “fluff.” 

Yoshimasa Hayashi, Kishida ally, confided run September 12 — scandal-free, English-fluent, 11%. 

Polls show 76% doubt LDP trust. LDP’s minority requires Ishin or DPP coalition, which is a postwar first. Motegi’s DPP photos, Koizumi’s Ishin hugs signal horse-trading. Tokyo Governor Koike’s clout adds pressure. This race could shift Japan: the question is, to dovish or hawkish? 

Osaka’s Big Expo Moment

Osaka’s Expo 2025 is in its final month. Nineteen million visitors by late August, 200,000 in one day September 6. It’s a diplomatic magnet, too: over 100 leaders, 158 countries, fueling expo diplomacy. Yumeshima’s new infrastructure and ¥2 trillion economic boost make it a biomedical hub, tied to “Designing Future Society for Our Lives.” Ishin banks on this for regional revitalization, Ishiba’s pet project, a test for successors. Post-October 13, Yumeshima hosts casinos, hotels, convention spaces; some pavilions stay as museums, others recycled. It’s Osaka’s win, Japan’s post-pandemic flex with 28 million projected visitors, 0.2% GDP boost.

Ishiba’s UN Speech: Hot Buttons

Ishiba’s UN speech, likely September 23, marks 80 years since the Pacific War’s end. His “remorse” push is deeper than Abe’s 2015 apology but it worries critics, risking wounds with China and South Korea, straining alliances. Most prefer Abe’s line: future generations not burdened. His Palestinian statehood float aims to lift Japan’s Mideast profile but risks U.S. friction amid Gaza conflicts. Polls show 63% of Japanese support a Palestinian state; bureaucrats favor dialogue to avoid provoking Israel. It’s a diplomatic tightrope and the global eyes are on Ishiba’s swan song.

Geopolitics: World on Edge

Global tensions echo Japan’s chaos. Ukraine: Russian strikes killed three September 13; Zelenskyy pushes to choke Moscow, but peace talks stall. Gaza: Israeli UN school strikes September 13; UNGA’s two-state vote (Japan yes) adds heat. Venezuela: U.S. Marines boarded a tuna vessel September 13, escalating tensions. North Korea: 33,000-ton Russian wheat aid, 2,000 delivered, tied to Ukraine troops. China-Taiwan: 300 monthly PLA incursions; Taiwan warns “domino effect” if invaded. South Korea: Ex-President Yoon in solitary after 2025 impeachments. Philippines: Duterte arrested March for drug war killings. France: 675 arrests in budget protests. London: September 13 anti-immigration protests: 110,000-150,000 clashed over the irritating issue of 100,000+ Channel crossings by unfettered immigrants. Travis Scott’s chaotic concert and Mick Jagger’s human rights stage plea fueled the divide. Charlie Kirk’s assassination, tied to Sanseito’s Tokyo rally, shakes discourse. Japan feels echoes, tourism and visa strains, but navigates with resilience.

Q&A Preview

Maya fielded these questions so please watch the replay on LinkedIn or YouTube for insights:

• Did Ishiba’s push to dissolve the House spark his resignation?
• Why do Japan’s prime ministers rarely last beyond a year, unlike Abe’s tenure?
• Could Ishin’s coalition role make Osaka Japan’s second capital?
• Is the Japan Times’ “bloodless coup” label fair for the LDP’s shift?
• Are Japanese media calling Ishiba’s exit a resignation or an ousting?
• Who will Ishiba’s 70,000 supporters back in the LDP race?
• How much influence do far-right groups like Sanseito wield in Japan’s elections? 

Final Thoughts

It is truly astounding how much is going on, and the depth we are witnessing change across borders and within layers of commerce, society, geopolitics, Japan’s role.

We are honored that you spend this valuable time with us every Sunday, and we commit to bringing you the unfiltered, accurate and timely news of how Japan is moving. This is obviously to help you decipher what is going on and how to prepare yourself, your company, business or embassy in dealing with or understanding how Japan ‘works’.

We’ll have more in next week’s Episode #241. Please share, comment, like. Help us widen the field of JapanHands.