Weekly Briefing Synopsis – Episode #236
Broadcast: Sunday, August 17, 2025
Location: Dockside at Umi-no-Eki in Misaki port
Reporting from Misaki port at the tip of the Miura Peninsula, this week’s briefing comes at the tailend of O-Bon. The national summer holidays have brought a rare lull in political theatrics as politicians, bureaucrats and families take time off. With offices shuttered and Tokyo half empty, it’s a good moment to take stock and look ahead.
As you see from the video report, fishing boats are bobbing in the harbor beside me, the heat shimmers off the water, and leaders across the country have retreated to their constituencies. This annual pause provides a chance to reflect on broader currents without the daily drumbeat of scandal or Diet maneuvering to consider what lies ahead when the holiday ends and the political machine powers back up. September will be furiously busy.
Here are the headliners in today’s briefing:
- 80th-anniversary of the end of WWII
- Ishiba hosted delegations from the European Union and several African nations
- Aisawa Commission and party dynamics
- Expo and UN visit
- Economy, trade and currency
- Africa and foreign policy
- Historical accountability and national memory
- The Diet to reconvene in September
On to the main points:
80th-anniversary reflections
The week saw solemn ceremonies for the eightieth anniversary of the end of World War II. At the Budokan memorial service, attended by the emperor, Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba delivered remarks expressing Japan’s “remorse” for its wartime actions. His choice of wording triggered debate: some conservatives prefer former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s carefully crafted 70th-anniversary statement as the definitive position, while others argue for more forthright acknowledgment. The anniversary also drew thousands to Yasukuni Shrine, where the spirits of fallen soldiers, Japanese AND foreign, are enshrined. Agriculture Minister Shinjiro Koizumi’s visit to the shrine, with political leaders from the LDP, Sansei-to and other national and local leadership in the hundreds, together with thousands of regular visitors on Friday, highlights the controversy about whether politicians should pay respects there. Critics say such visits glorify militarism; supporters contend they honor sacrifice and foster peace.
Diplomatic activities
Although many offices were closed this entire week, the Prime Minister’s schedule remained full. He hosted European and African delegations coming into Tokyo, discussing supply-chain resilience, energy security and cooperation in semiconductor manufacturing. The Prime Minister also chaired a cabinet meeting on the rollout of U.S. tariffs, met with the ministers of finance and economy to discuss energy-price relief in anticipation of the tariff hits. And of course as President of the LDP, his schedule was loaded with moves that question his leadership within the party ranks. Talk about a full-plate!
Aisawa Commission and party dynamics
Behind the scenes, the LDP’s Aisawa Commission – led by veteran legislator Ichiro Aizawa – is attempting to determine the appetite among all LDP Members and the 47 Prefectural Councils for a new Presidential Election. Meanwhile, faction leaders Fumio Kishida and Taro Aso sound out colleagues on potential coalition configurations. The Democratic Party for the People has floated the idea of a caretaker alliance in exchange for cabinet posts. Nippon Ishin party wants metropolitan status and the chance to be the Capital in Emergency, should such a situation occur. The Constitutional Democratic Party, still the largest opposition bloc, has vowed to resist any no-confidence motion against PM Ishiba. Currently, it looks like any changes will be initiated internal to the LDP. These maneuvers are setting the stage for a volatile autumn session.
Expo and UN visit
Osaka’s World Expo provides a showcase for Japan’s soft power and economic ambitions. The United Nations secretary-general’s visit to underscores The Expo’s global significance. The combination of national pride, corporate sponsorship and diplomatic outreach foreshadows how Japan intends to use the Expo to burnish its international image. Ishin also has a huge stake in this endeavor (and wishes it was more robust and problem-free). Tuesday evening, for example, 30,000 visitors were stranded overnight at the massive site as the sole trainline to/from the Expo suddenly broke-down. This followed several consecutive days where many visitors stayed inside pavilions to escape the record-breaking heat. The train breakdown was in the evening and only resumed at 7:00 a.m.! Many slept inside the pavilions, which were kept open. That has to hurt!
Economy, trade and currency
Economic news centered on the ongoing implementation of the U.S.-Japan trade agreement, the Nippon Steel-U.S. Steel merger and the yen’s volatility. Japanese exporters are adjusting to the 15 percent tariff rate, and Ministries are finalizing investment commitments tied to the deal. Private consumption inched up 0.2 percent, capital investment rose 1.3 percent and housing investment climbed 0.8 percent, while exports grew 2 percent. Analysts attribute this modest growth to pent-up demand after months of uncertainty, relief that tariffs will not reach 25 percent and a desire to purchase ahead of further price rises. The Nippon Steel-U.S. Steel merger, announced in July, underscores a shift toward cross-border industrial consolidation; Japanese executives emphasize that the partnership will modernize plants, lower emissions and secure supplies for key sectors.
On the currency front, the yen hovered around ¥147 per U.S. dollar during the holiday week, reflecting traders’ focus on the U.S.-Japan interest-rate gap. Interestingly, both the Dow and the Nikkei are experiencing blockbuster performance. It firmed slightly after softer U.S. inflation data and weakened when U.S. Treasury yields rose. With the Bank of Japan maintaining an ultra-easy policy for now, the yen remains sensitive to shifts in the U.S.-Japan interest-rate gap and global growth headlines. BOJ looks to raise short-term rate by 25 basis points by year-end. Such a move will signal the bank’s end of negative-rate policy and help narrow the gap between Japanese and U.S. yields.
Within government, exporters argue that a weaker yen supports competitiveness, while energy and technology officials warn that yen weakness drives up the cost of dollar-denominated imports. How policymakers balance these competing pressures will influence the currency’s trajectory in the months ahead.
Africa and foreign policy
TICAD 9 begins this upcoming week. Japan is refining its African strategy. Officials emphasize renewable energy, digital infrastructure, health systems and education while partnering with African entrepreneurs. The goal is to offer financing and expertise without saddling recipients with unmanageable debt. PM Ishiba and Foreign Minister Iwaya’s Japan strategy with African leaders (discussions which include the UN secretary-general), promote Japan’s rules-based approach. Japan also intends TICAD to not just counter BRICKS but also to strengthen ties with Southeast Asian and European partners on issues such as maritime security and cyber resilience. Maritime mining is becoming a larger-and-larger issue.
Historical accountability and national memory
The 80th-anniversary observances reopened debates about how Japan confronts its wartime legacy. 14,000 people filled The Budokan yesterday as the Emperor and the Prime Minister both made speeches about the war, the Prime Minister suggesting a tone of remorse which also triggered a backlash. 100+ prominent local and national political figures joined thousands who visited the Yasukuni Shrine yesterday. This always riles-up protests of Japan “glorifying” the war dead. Agriculture Minister Shinjiro Koizumi’s appearance at the shrine highlighted how such gestures can still shake domestic and foreign audiences. Yasukuni is a Shinto shrine built in the 19th century to honor Japan’s war dead. The shrine is best known for enshrining the spirits of 14 Japanese “Class A” war criminals and 1,000 others also found guilty by an Allied tribunal after World War II. Thus it is a symbol to some of Japan’s past military exploits.
Coming attractions
With the Diet on recess, there is a sense of calm before the political storm. When lawmakers reconvene in September they will tackle questions about trade implementation, energy prices, defense budgeting and constitutional revision. The Bank of Japan’s first meeting of the fall will weigh inflation pressures and the yen’s trajectory. Meanwhile, faction leaders are positioning themselves for a possible leadership contest if PM Ishiba’s grip weakens. As always, the interplay between party politics, economic imperatives and international diplomacy will define the agenda. Next week I will report from Hawaii at my daughter’s wedding, but the briefing will continue without interruption.
Questions from Viewers
- What are the implications of Prime Minister Ishiba’s use of the word “remorse” in his 80th-anniversary speech? Would it have been better to leave the matter to former Prime Minister Abe’s earlier address?
- Is there a way to remove the remains of the executed wartime leaders from Yasukuni so that commemoration of the millions who died can proceed without rancor?
- Is the recent agreement between American Steel and Nippon Steel more beneficial to the United States or Japan? What did Japan get out of it, after all?
- NHK reported that private consumption grew 0.2 percent, corporate capital investment 1.3 percent, housing investment 0.8 percent and exports 2 percent. What do these figures mean for the near future?
- What is Japan’s agenda for the upcoming TICAD summit and its vision for a new order in Africa?
- Why do some critics say Japan has not addressed its wartime atrocities as fully as Germany has? And how can Japan improve its approach?
In closing
In episode 236 we talked about how a country can pause and reflect even as it wrestles with issues on the table while preparing for significant policy debates coming up. Yet the week’s events – from solemn memorials and controversial shrine visits to behind-the-scenes party maneuvers, busy diplomatic engagements and concrete economic data all conspire to reveal that politics, history and economics never really sleep. As Japan heads toward a crucial autumn session, understanding these intertwined threads will help observers anticipate the nation’s next steps.
Stay tuned for next week’s update from a far-off location. Thank you for following along.