Japanese Politics Updates – June 1, 2025

Hello again Japan Hands — reporting this week from my home office in Tokyo. Today’s is a busy episode. Let me move briskly through some weighty issues, startling poll numbers, the diplomatic flurry of Prime Minister Ishiba, and even a surprise cameo by Akie Abe in Moscow. Very briefly:

In this Update:

• China lifts its seafood ban on Japan
• Cheap rice shakes up the market
• Akie Abe’s surprise visit with Putin draws fire
• Thursday night phone call between Trump and Ishiba
• Inflation update: 1,932 items see price increases
• BoJ report reveals economic strain and wage stagnation
• South Korea’s elections approach with high youth turnout
• PM Ishiba’s relentless diplomatic schedule continues while The Expo is in full-swing
• Pension Reform legislation passes with cross-party support
• Hakubun Shimomura testifies in Budget Committee
• Dual surname legislation finally being considered in the Diet
• Cabinet Approval seems to hover at 30%, Ishiba’s disapproval spikes at 55.6%

 

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The briefing

China Reopens to Japanese Seafood

In a significant relaxation, China lifted its sweeping ban on all Japanese seafood, a move expected to restore over ¥200 billion in annual exports. This comes after months of backchannel negotiations and improved transparency around Fukushima’s water discharge. The thaw also reflects a broader strategic effort by both sides to stabilize economic ties in the face of growing geopolitical headwinds. Still, the ban remains on foodstuffs including seafood from 9 prefectures surrounding Fukushima; there are 47 prefectures in Japan.

Cheaper Rice hits the Market

In lightening speed, stockpiled rice from 2022 went on sale and almost immediately sold out, priced at half the price of the 2024 stock. This will have some impact on CPI since rice was selling at 198% above the price this time last year. Now the rice from the 2021 stockpiles will hit the market within days, but it has generated some controversy because while cheap, the 2020 stock cannot be sold as food for human consumption but instead only as feed.

Akie Abe Meets Putin in Moscow

In a move that surprised nearly everyone, former First Lady Akie Abe met with Vladimir Putin during a personal trip to Russia on Thursday. The meeting was not cleared by any Japanese official channel, apparently. Ms. Abe was acting strictly in a private capacity, her office reported.

Trump–Ishiba Call

Thursday evening, PM Ishiba spoke with former U.S. President Donald Trump in a scheduled call lasting 25 minutes. Though details are scarce, insiders confirmed the discussion included regional deterrence, Taiwan contingency planning, and military procurement cooperation. This call was within hours of Trade Negotiator Akazawa’s departure for D.C. for his 4th round of talks.

Prices Rise on 1,932 Items

According to Teikoku Data, prices across 1,932 food & beverage categories rose last month. Food prices climbed 6.8%, with increases also seen in utilities (+5.2%) and transport (+4.1%). These shifts continue to pressure households, especially lower-income ones. While overall inflation held at 2.6%, core inflation excluding energy and food surged to 3.5%—well above the central bank’s target. Rice, as we know, was 98% higher than last year.

BoJ Economic Report: Mixed Signals

The broader BoJ report painted a mixed picture. Industrial production in April fell 0.9%, retail sales gained a modest 2.4%, jobless rate remained at 2.6%. Wage growth continues to trail price increases, and household sentiment is weakening. BOJ Governor Ueda hinted at further tightening ahead, but made no commitment on a timeline. The June meeting will happen earlier in the month. Stay tuned.

Yen Closes at 144.04

The yen finished the week stronger at 144.04 per dollar, a notable rebound from 145.12 just 2 weeks ago. Analysts attribute the move to shifting expectations around U.S. interest rates and growing anticipation that the BoJ may inch toward another rate hike in Q3. Export-heavy industries are lobbying against aggressive moves.

South Korea Heads to the Polls

Elections will be held Tuesday, and early indications show unusually high youth voter turnout. This trend favors progressive and reformist parties, though no clear outcome is yet visible. Tokyo is monitoring developments closely, particularly around security cooperation and possible trade posture adjustments. A shift to the left is expected and much of the US-Japan-S.Korea progress stands to be turned around.

PM Ishiba’s Diplomatic Sprint

In just six days, PM Ishiba held high-level talks with representatives from India, Vietnam, and Australia; he participated in a trilateral virtual summit with the EU and U.S.; he met in completely separate meetings in different days, with heads of State from Montenegro, Luxembourg, Laos, Tanzania, Kuwait, Vietnam, Cambodia, and Bangladesh; he spoke with President Trump for 25 minutes. These meetings focused on trade security, Indo-Pacific logistics, and defense alignment. The pace of diplomacy suggests urgency to counterbalance growing Chinese influence in the region but also just to deal with the constand flow of VIP coming to Japan to participate in the Osaka Expo.

Pension Reform Passes

The Diet approved comprehensive pension reform legislation with broad support that included the CDP. The bill introduces phased adjustments to benefit formulas and aims to stabilize funding for the next generation. The surprise came when the CDP voted in favor—fueling speculation that Ishiba may be drawing centrist parties into issue-based coalition discussions. It seems that Ishin and DPP may have played their cards too aggressively.

Shimomura Testifies

LDP stalwart, former Education Minister, and Seiwakai ‘Gang of Five’ heavy-weight Hakubun Shimomura gave sworn testimony in the Budget Committee on Tuesday. Many believe him to be the executive who gave the order to reinstate the slushfund campaign (in contradiction of slain Shintaro Abe’s order to cease it). This does not end the story, and there are moves to summon the other 4 to similarly testify. Anything to further sully the name of the LDP and Abe Faction members of whatever caliber: because Upper House elections loom.

Surname Bill Resurfaces

Legislation that would allow married couples to retain separate surnames is now on the front burner. Public support, especially from urban women under 40, has risen steadily. With 61% backing the change (Asahi poll), the issue is poised to become a wedge between progressive and traditionalist lawmakers. The LDP has stepped-back and decided NOT to submit a bill, instead allowing the three main opposition parties to slug it out in the form of each offering their own, individual draft legislations. Unlikely this will go anywhere before the Diet ends in 21 days.

Cabinet Approval Drops Sharply

Latest polling suggests that only 30.3% of the voting public approve of PM Ishiba and his leadership; disapproval has spiked to 55.6%. Voter frustration centers on inflation, slow-paced reforms, a split and fragmented parliament, the tarrif handling, and perceived elite detachment. Ishiba’s government now risks becoming a midterm liability for local candidates ahead of the July by-elections.

Q&A Highlights

• What’s the deeper impact of China lifting the seafood ban?
• Could Akie Abe’s visit with Putin signal behind-the-scenes diplomacy?
• What was actually said during the Trump–Ishiba phone call?
• How much are rising food prices changing household budgets?
• Does BoJ have any real tools left to fight inflation?
• What should we expect from South Korea’s vote on Tuesday?
• Does the pension reform vote suggest a broader coalition?
• Is Shimomura challenging the LDP’s current leadership?
• Will the Diet actually vote on the surname bill?
• How damaging are Ishiba’s latest approval numbers?

Final Thoughts

Japan is racing to the end of this 150 day Diet Session with several pieces of legislation hanging in the balance. Tea leaf reading suggests a mending of LDP/CDP cracks and potentially a coalition agreement after the election… which would mean at least a Cabinet re-shuffle, maybe even an election again for PM, and a distribution of Cabinet Seats to (what is today) an opposition party. The Tokyo Metro races start soon, then the Upper House. Trump tariff deadline is first week of July.