Japanese Politics Updates – April 13, 2025

Welcome to the 218th briefing on Japanese politics! Spring rains are falling in Tokyo, and while most are reaching for umbrellas, we’re unfurling our tarp aboard the good ship Gryms. Anchored once again for another stormy but insightful session, this week’s live broadcast brings you into the whirlwind of trade diplomacy, political maneuvering, and generational shifts in the workplace. With the Upper House election now just 10 weeks away, the stakes—and the storm clouds—are building.

Let’s dive into the week that was.

Week in Brief

• Yen Surge: The yen rallied to 143.59 to the dollar, its strongest position since early 2024, driven by dovish Fed signals and geopolitical market jitters.
• Trump Tariffs Temporarily Paused: A dramatic 90-day freeze has postponed sweeping tariffs on Japanese goods. Behind the scenes, Japan prepares to negotiate.
• Negotiating Delegation Heads to DC: Led by Lower House member Ryosei Akazawa and top MOF official Atsushi Mimura, Japan’s high-powered team departs Wednesday.
• Expo Osaka Launches: A six-month global showcase begins today, with political undercurrents in play for Ishin-no-Kai and broader (hoped for) economic impact.
• Four-Day Workweek? Tokyo Governor Koike proposes reduced hours for government workers to address Japan’s demographic decline.
• Supplemental Budget in the Works: A stimulus package is being negotiated – including a potential cut to the consumption tax and a cash handout.
• New Resignation Trend: A spike in April resignations among fresh newly hired employees has sparked public concern—and even birthed a new “resignation agency” industry.

Main Briefing – Timothy’s Analysis

Trump Tariffs: Paused, Not Canceled

After last week’s emergency phone call between PM Ishiba and President Trump on Monday night, the Trump Administration announced a 90-day pause on auto and general tariffs. Japan’s trade team heads to DC this week to negotiate. Expectations are low—but success would be politically invaluable, especially with the Upper House election looming.

Meet the Negotiators

Ryosei Akazawa represents the political side. He is a Lower House member from Tottori, long close to PM Ishiba. He is a former Transportation Ministry bureaucrat, who holds an MBA from Cornell and is one of the several “Koizumi Children”. Now Minister of Revitalization with a sweeping portfolio.

Atsushi Mimura represents the bureaucracy side: he is an MOF veteran of 35 years, University of Tokyo graduate with a graduate degree from Ecole Nationale d’Administration (France); he is Japan’s top currency diplomat. Quiet, powerful, and experienced on the global stage.

Yen Movement and BOJ Positioning

The strengthening yen is causing market jitters. A stable yen reflects safe-haven inflows amid global uncertainty, but also threatens exporters and suggests possible BOJ intervention. The regularly-scheduled BOJ meeting at the end of April will be closely watched.

Supplemental Stimulus and Tax Cuts

Negotiations have begun on a possible supplemental budget. Consumption tax cuts—especially on food—are on the table. Komeito, DPP, and CDP have different proposals, and PM Ishiba must juggle demands from across the spectrum. The goal: economic relief before the July vote. 

Ishiba’s Position: Weak but Useful

Calls for Ishiba’s replacement persist. With just 10 weeks until the election, however, most factions agree it’s too late for a leadership change. And maybe it is not a good idea. Opposition parties would rather run against a weak PM than against someone new with momentum and a more unified, invogorated LDP.

Expo Osaka Opens

The six-month event is underway from today. Political capital is at stake for Ishin-no-Kai. The central government’s level of support—or detachment—may shape both economic impact and political gain. Organizers expect 28.2 million visitors over the six month run; among those, about 10% will be foreigners.

New Trends in the Workforce

April 1 marked the beginning of the fiscal year, a new school year and the day new employees enter their first job after finishing college. This year, a shocking trend has emerged: new hires resigning en masse within days. A new business model has emerged: “resignation agencies” that help young workers quit without having to deal with any confrontation. A significant number of trainees have just decided not to go in any more (we are not yet two-weeks into it).

Complaints range from “I was yelled at” and “we had to stand and chant company slogans” and “it certainly was not as originally portrayed to me”. These disillusioned youth just call the company, pay the fee, and everything is handled for them… while they move on with their lives. One of these companies is “Mo Muri, k.k.” which translates to “Oh I have HAD it!, Inc.”… a pretty clever turn of phrase.

1. How will Japan’s negotiating team coordinate cross-ministry responses to Trump’s multi-front demands?
2. Will the 90-day tariff pause impact the Upper House election timeline?
3. Can Akazawa convert this high-profile mission into lasting political clout?
4. What long-term trade strategy might Japan pursue in the face of these protectionist pressures?
5. Will Japan’s rice export goals worsen domestic supply shortages?
6. Can a new non-factional policy group emerge within the LDP?
7. What impact might the resignation trend you highlighted have on labor reform and corporate norms?

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