Japanese Politics Updates – November 1, 2026

I am reporting from my home office this morning. A 6.1 earthquake off the coast of Mie Prefecture shook the house for a long stretch not forty-five minutes before we started, with no tsunami warning. I leave for Okinawa later today. This is episode 299; next Sunday is our 300th weekly episode! So who’s Your Daddy! On a more serious note:

Flags in Nagatachō and Three Official Visits

Nagatachō was full of national flags. Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi hosted three official visits in one week: German Chancellor Friedrich Merz for two days, Bangladesh for three, and Federated States of Micronesia: President Wesley W. Simina (Official Working Visit; summit on October 23); discussed was FOIP cooperation, a cargo-passenger ship survey, and the PALM 11 meetings in Yokohama.

 None included an imperial audience, so they were not formal State Visits. Chancellor Merz raised the Global Combat Air Programme—the Italy–Japan–UK autonomous fighter project aimed at around 2032. The Japanese side was interested, but a two-day visit does not open negotiations. The larger conversation was trade, electronic vehicles, and among other considerations, Chinese inroads into the European car market that have cut Japanese sales. On the bases in Okinawa, Chinese vehicles are already restricted from entering US bases because of the cameras and data they collect. That is pretty astounding when you think about it.

Koizumi, Deterrence, and the Year-End Documents

Defense Minister Shinjiro Koizumi was in the Philippines for the ASEAN Defense Ministerial. He met U.S. Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth and briefed him on the revisions to the national security documents, which will be finalized before year-end. The theme is deter through denial: make any kinetic move so difficult that it does not start. Japan decides its own spending levels. The United States has stepped back from the 3–3.5 percent pressure because Tokyo is in a bind—the food-tax cut is the chosen relief, and the economy is not turning.

He also met his Indian counterpart, Defence Minister Rajnath Singh. They reviewed maritime and air exercises, including the first Self-Defense Forces fighters to participate in Veer Guardian. Both sides agreed to accelerate the fourth 2+2, likely in November or December and certainly before year-end. Finnish Defence Minister Antti Häkkänen visited earlier in the week and walked through the mechanics of moving a non-nuclear country onto a nuclear timetable, the path Finland itself just took.

The 31-Seat Deal and the Food Tax

The Diet is locked in a dual fight over the Lower House seat reduction and the consumption tax on food. On Friday the LDP, Ishin, and the Democratic Party for the People settled on a 31-seat cut. Ishin had been promised 45; the DPFP wanted 19. They cut the baby in half to buy space for the food-tax bill, which is still under deliberation and has not yet moved from the Lower House. The Upper House is where the difficulty lies. The LDP still lacks a majority there by roughly twenty-four seats.

Benkyokai dinners at around ¥15,000 a plate have increased. That is a signal that war chests are being built for an election cycle three or four months out, not simply due to the end-of-year Extraordinary Session that still has six weeks to run.

Coalition Math and the Parties

The LDP continues to hold a supermajority in the Lower House yet lacks an Upper House majority by about twenty-four seats. Ishin is the coalition partner, based in Osaka under Governor Hirofumi Yoshimura, who faces re-election in about eight months and whose prospects are not a shoe-in.

Osaka voices already ask why he joined the Tokyo snobs. Ishin accepted the 31 seats even though the original promise was 45. Roughly half of the twelve arrows are on track. The DPFP (Kokumin, leader Yuichiro Tamaki) has joined the seat-cut deal and is making inroads. LDP Vice President Taro Aso leans more toward a coalition with Kokumin because they bring twenty-five Upper House seats to Ishin’s 19. The Centrist Reform Alliance has come apart. Komeito left after eight months, is critical of the tax-cut design, and has floated a two-year cash payment. Smaller parties remain at the whim of the larger ones and are gradually being absorbed. By design.

Cabinet Warts and the Vetting Question

The cabinet is barely a month old. Former Agriculture Minister Kazuo Yana resigned three weeks ago, the first under Prime Minister Takaichi. His replacement, Agriculture Minister Arata Takebe, is already under scrutiny for falsified expenses and benefits that look like bribery. Revitalization Minister Goshi Hosono faces dual-election-office allegations. The focus has shifted from the individuals to Prime Minister Takaichi’s judgment and the thoroughness of the vetting she advertised. Money issues, not other scandals, are the current bruises.

Yen, BOJ, and the Numbers

The dollar closed Friday at 157.5. The Bank of Japan met Thursday and Friday and left the rate steady, suggesting a move is possible in December. The yen has settled into a narrow band after earlier swings, with U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama watching closely. The National Security Document Advisory Council met Tuesday and agreed spending increases are needed. They lean toward a tax increase at the same time taxes on food are being cut. The gasoline subsidy holding prices at about ¥170 per liter is likely to be extended, and household energy subsidies for the winter will follow. The October economic report upgraded the business-conditions outlook for the first time in thirty-four months on AI and semiconductor demand. Forward orders for machinery have risen. Each are good signals.

Peninsula, Taiwan, and Sakhalin

North Korea denied the landmine that injured South Korean soldiers on the DMZ two or three weeks ago, moved howitzers closer, resumed loudspeakers, and fired missiles. Kim Jong-un crossed the new Yalu bridge into China. Chinese coast-guard and military vessels have peaked around Taiwan. The Hokkaido Shimbun reporter detained in Sakhalin remains in Moscow under a ninety-day warrant; the embassy has visited him and pressed for his release.

Okinawa Curfew

A Marine was arrested for the robbery-murder of a few weeks ago. On Saturday night, unfortunately, a corporal was arrested for drunk driving—more than twice the legal limit—during the island-wide curfew on a national highway. Police are looking at a possible related hit-and-run earlier that evening. Local relations are up in arms. But that is not why I am going to Okinawa.

Today in History

In July 1858 the Harris Treaty was signed, an unequal treaty that ended sakoku and accelerated the modernization that produced the industrial base Japan now uses in technology and security cooperation. 118 years later, in July 1976 former Prime Minister Kakuei Tanaka was arrested in the Lockheed bribery scandal. Every new gray-minister case still collides with that memory of money and politics. In July 1941 Japan occupied French Indochina, narrowing its diplomatic options and helping produce the embargo that led to December 7. The Chinese positioning around Taiwan and Japan’s own deterrence choices still rhyme with that sequence.

Q&A Highlights

• How will the US midterm elections affect Japanese prices and the yen if Democrats take one or both houses?
• Is India a suitable Quad member while it remains in BRICS, and can the two cultures actually cut deals?
• How will local residents in Hokkaido and the other mainland sites receive the live-fire drills that used to be held entirely in Okinawa?
• What role, if any, would Japan play if the United States and Israel strike Iran after the midterms?
• Can the Self-Defense Forces hold Japan for a day, or for a week, if the United States is not present?

In Closing

The 31-seat deal buys time for the food-tax bill, but the Upper House arithmetic has not changed. Cabinet scrutiny is now on the vetting itself. Regional noise continues on the peninsula and around Taiwan. Next briefing is Sunday, November 8, at 8:20 a.m. JST—our 300th episode… with deep gratitude to our growing global audience.

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