Japanese Politics Updates – September 15, 2024

Welcome to the 188th episode of “Japanese Politics One-on-One”, produced and served for your personal consumption by Langley Esquire and Japan Expert Insights.

LDP Presidential Election Campaign

The campaign for the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) presidency kicked off on Thursday. Nine candidates, including two women, are competing for the presidency, marking the largest race in Japanese post-war history. The race is entirely internal to the LDP, and they utilize no public funds. This is a private matter within the party. 

The campaign, 15 days long, will show candidates traveling across the country and soaking up media coverage for seven of these. It started with the entire nine in a Press Conference on Friday, Fukuoka yesterday, Fukushima today. Nine candidates moving together, holding public forums and debates, presents significant logistical challenges and a really stressful time for the candidates. They all are traveling together and under the media microscope the entire time, too.

In any event, we all know that if any candidate secures 50+% of the vote in the First Round, they become LDP president. If no candidate wins outright (the most likely scenario, given the number of candidates), there will be a runoff between the top two candidates. Rounds One & Two occur quickly, with results finalized and announced within an hour at LDP headquarters in two Fridays ahead. That will be a newsworthy day!

Candidate Platforms and Endorsements

Familiar faces like Ishiba, Koizumi, and Motegi are well-known. Voters already understand their personalities and platforms at least to a certain extent. The endorsement dynamics (e.g., which factions or endorsers support each candidate) will play a crucial role in determining, in particular, the Second-Round outcome.

Candidates have varying levels of support, which can be assessed by looking at:

• Who endorses whom;
• Factions each candidate is linked to;
• The demographics (age, gender) of endorsers.

Constitutional Democratic Party (CDP) Leadership Race

The CDP campaign began on Saturday and will end September 23 (next Monday). Four candidates in the running in a race less divisive compared to the LDP election.

Candidates:

• Harumi Yoshida from the Upper House. She is the first female candidate to run for CDP leadership; and a first-termer!
• Yoshihiko Noda, former Prime Minister (from 2011 to 2012); seasoned and war-tested.
• Kenta Izumi, incumbent leader, in his second-term; protégé of Edano.
• Yukio Edano sculpted the CDP from the remnants of the opposition party when the LDP regained power in 2017 amid lots of internal bad blood.

The main competition is expected to be between former Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda and incumbent President Kenta Izumi. If no candidate wins more than 50% in Round One, a runoff will ensue between the top two candidates. This is likely given the popularity of the candidates across the board. Mr. Ichiro Ozawa, a notable political figure, played a role in forming the CDP during the party’s inception. Many expect him to be exerting his still-tremendous influence.

Komeito Convention

Komeito, the party in coalition with the LDP, will hold the final day of its convention after the CDP and LDP elections. In line with the ideology of the party this will not be an election involving a ballot. Instead, it will be an acclamation, already a done deal. Current Secretary-General Keiichi Ishii will replace Natsuo Yamaguchi, who led the party for 15 years. No surprises here.

The LDP-Komeito coalition holds a supermajority in the Upper and Lower Houses of the Diet, giving them significant legislative power. Despite the upcoming leadership changes, this coalition will likely remain strong in passing bills and advancing legislation.

The next 10 days will be politically intense in Japan. We will see significant leadership transitions in major political parties and a general election on the horizon. Both domestic and international factors will play into the timing and execution of these political shifts.

Political Conflict in Hyogo Prefecture

Prefectural Governor of Hyogo, Motohiko Saito won the prefectural election in 2021 with the support of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and Nippon-Ishin-no-Kai. He is facing a no-confidence-motion due to allegations of power harassment and governance controversies.

 

 

Key Points:

• Motohiko Saito replaced a long-serving governor of three terms. His election marked a shift in local politics, with support from both the LDP and Ishin, a rising political force. Ishin saw Saito’s victory as an extension of their influence beyond Osaka, where they dominate the prefectural and local government, as well almost all the Lower House seats in the prefecture.
• Controversy and Criticism: Saito faces harsh criticism for his leadership. This includes accusations of power harassment linked to the suicides of two within his administration. Saito defends himself, asserting that his actions were part of his duty as Governor. He claims his critics were previously too comfortable under the former administration and are now resisting necessary changes.
• No Confidence Motion: The Constitutional Democratic Party (CDP), with the LDP co-signing, plan to submit a no-confidence-motion against Saito in 4 days (Thursday, September 19th). The motion, although authored by the opposition, is notably supported by the LDP, one of the original backers in Saito’s election.
• Governor’s Response: Saito has declared that if the no-confidence-motion passes, he will dissolve the Prefectural Assembly, a power Prefectural Governors possess, similar to how Prime Ministers can dissolve the Lower House of the National Diet. The Governor, however, insists that his position elected by the people of Hyogo, gives him the authority to continue his leadership and resist efforts to remove him.

Upcoming Procedures

Busy Emperor

• The Emperor of Japan plays a ceremonial but important role in state functions, particularly during periods of political transition. While his political power is constitutionally limited, he remains the symbolic Head of State. As such he opens and closes the Diet and appoints the new Prime Minister after elections.
• The Emperor will soon call the convocation of an Extraordinary Session of the Diet. This session will follow the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) presidential election, which takes place on Friday (27th). On the following Monday, the newly elected LDP President will become the next Prime Minister in a vote by both Houses of the Diet. The Emperor will open this Session, during which the LDP and its coalition partner, Komeito, will vote for the LDP’s new president to assume the role of Prime Minister.

Cabinet Appointment:

• Once the new Prime Minister is confirmed, he will quickly introduce his cabinet of 22 Members. This process happens rapidly, often within the same day. This adds to the complexity and pressure on the newly elected LDP leader.

Dissolution of the Diet and General Election:

• After assuming office, the new Prime Minister will probably dissolve the Diet to trigger a snap-election. This process will again require the Emperor to close the Diet officially. The date of the general election will likely fall either on October 20th or October 27th. Once the date is confirmed, likely a short campaign period will follow (9 or 10 days). This will culminate in a general election (always on a Sunday).

Questions from the Audience Answered Exclusively During the Briefing

• With the LDP at its weakest state in recent history, is it not more likely that the new PM will hold onto his or her position and wait until the mandated general election in October 2025, rather than calling a snap-election and potentially losing (maybe even the majority!)?
• Formerly (4 years ago) Sanae Takaichi had reasonably strong support as the potential LDP leader. What are the reasons for the decline in her support?
• Sanae Takaichi commands strong support from groups outside the LDP, in particular, industry groups. She does not, however, wield similar popularity within the party. What do you think is the significance here?
• Seiko Noda has withdrawn her candidacy and endorsed Koizumi; some may say she has “sold-out” on her principles. What are your thoughts on this?
• Whoever becomes the new PM will have a rough term, what do you think the candidates are preparing to mitigate the damage?
• How relevant are public opinion polls in understanding this leadership contest?
• During his appearance on TV Asahi, Koizumi did not seem to leave much of an impression especially on economic issues. On the other hand, NHK seemed to deliberately avoid economics-related questions. What is the significance of this?