Japanese Politics Updates – May 11, 2025

Weekly Briefing Synopsis: Episode #222

Broadcast Date: May 11, 2025

Overview: Nation at a Crossroads

This week’s 222nd episode of Japanese Politics One-on-One opens with reflections on a busy Golden Week, fresh diplomatic engagements, and a nation grappling with shifting political, economic, and legislative dynamics. From dramatic currency shifts and high-stakes pension reform to internal party fractures and looming electoral realignments, Japan finds itself on a precarious ledge, with Prime Minister Ishiba under intensifying pressure.

Key Themes & Takeaways

The Yen’s Decline & Dollar Strength

– The yen closed the week at $/¥145.38, a month-long slide (from 142 in early April).

– A mix of Federal Reserve rate hikes, stronger-than-expected U.S. economic data, and Trump tariff prospects contributed to the yen’s continued weakening.

– Analysts anticipate the 145–147 range for the near term. While not yet alarming, many see 150 as the psychological threshold.

– Japan’s trade vulnerability is once again in the spotlight, particularly as its auto sector faces a significant tariff threat of 25%.

Trump Tariffs & Japan’s Diplomatic Strategy

– Prime Minister Ishiba made strategic visits to Vietnam and the Philippines, key partners in Japan’s regional diversification efforts. Expect more military-cooperation news shortly where the SDF is becoming more engaged and integrated, distinctly on the frontline.

– The UK reached a trade accommodation with the U.S., reducing threatened tariffs from 25% to 10%; discussions in Switzerland tonight with China.

– Japan may be next in line. A third round of negotiations is expected this month, with negotiator Ryosei Akazawa heading to Washington with his expanded team.

Consumption Tax Relief Rejected by LDP

– The LDP formally abandoned the idea of a consumption tax cut, citing fiscal responsibility, satisfing the more conservative wing, but…

– This move creates distance away from Komeito, the LDP coalition partner, who continues to advocate for quick and decisive consumer relief.

– Opposition parties, meanwhile, are pushing aggressively on relief alternatives:

– CDP (Izumi): one-year suspension of tax on food.

– DPP (Tamaki): flat reduction of all rates to 5%.

– These fights today translate into talking points on each party’s Manifesto for upcoming Upper House elections (in less than 8 weeks!); Manifesto: THE song sheet ALL candidates are required to sing from. So battlelines are being drawn now. Serious stuff.

Pension Reform Battle Brewing

– The most significant legislative issue of the Session is reforming the pension and healthcare contribution system.

– The LDP’s Policy Research Council (27 members) must vote unanimously on Tuesday for the LDP to advance or promote such a (any, in fact) bill.

– Kono Taro, a council member, has publicly stated his opposition, citing damage to SMEs and non-traditional workers. Ouch.

– Opposition leader Noda (CDP) has threatened a no-confidence motion if reform is not now passed, once again throwing down the gauntlet and pincering the Prime Minister between the most powerful opposition party and a prominent LDP member (who wishes to replace PM Ishiba when the time comes).

Boon Report & the Ethics Dilemma

– Weekly magazine Bunshun alleges PM Ishiba received ¥30 million in undeclared funds from supporter groups over this last decade.

– The PM’s office denies wrongdoing; opposition demands his testimony in Diet sessions next week.

– While potentially not fatal, the scandal comes at a bad time and adds weight to calls for change. It places Mr. Ishiba in a particularly sticky situation.

Surname Reform & a Looming Ultimatum

– A key symbolic issue: allowing married couples to retain separate surnames.

– The LDP remains divided, especially among its more conservative ranks.

– Opposition parties are pushing for a Diet vote before the June 22 session deadline.

– Once again, this is a warning to the PM that failure to act will prompt a no-confidence motion (is there an echo in here?).

Countdown to Election & No-Confidence Window

– July 22 is the Upper House election date; the campaign period begins 17 days prior.

– For a double election to occur (Lower + Upper House), a no-confidence motion must pass by June 1, with dissolution of the Lower House by June 10.

– LDP holds 142 seats in the Upper House (needs 125 for majority with Komeito), but is 13 seats short of a majority in the Lower House… which not only explains the incredible difficulty the LDP is having in this current Session, but highlights why a double election is somewhat attractive to the LDP.

The Next Prime Minister?

– Speculation intensifies: who would replace Ishiba should the time come?

– Names in the mix: Kono Taro, Shinjiro Koizumi, Sanae Takaichi, Iwaya Takeshi, Katsunobu Kato, Takayuki Kobayashi… each a candidate for PM the last time around, not so very long ago.

– Factional rivalries, public fatigue, and unresolved animosities make predictions difficult, but these next two weeks are critical.

Q&A Highlights

– How is Japan evaluating the UK-US trade deal as a model for a Japan-US agreement?

– How is Japan interpreting Ambassador Glass’s comments as a signal for deeper cooperation under a second Trump term?

– Is it increasingly likely that former Prime Minister Kishida may be positioning for another run?

– What is Foreign Minister Iwaya’s current position within the LDP after leaving the Aso Faction, how do other politicians see him?

– Will the Democratic Party for the People break through in the upcoming House of Councillors election and pull-off a repeat of what they achieved in the October ’24 election?

Final Notes

– The pension reform showdown on Tuesday is expected to be explosive.

– A no-confidence motion window is now *active*… for the next two weeks… then dead.

– The next 20 days will be full of parliamentary fireworks—stay tuned!

If you’ve enjoyed this update, please like, share, and forward it to a friend. You can subscribe to the Substack newsletter and never miss a week (link in video description).

Timothy’s note: I deeply appreciate how engaged and insightful our community has become. These are complex times in Japanese politics—but it’s an honor to walk through them with you.