{"id":9708,"date":"2024-05-21T05:41:21","date_gmt":"2024-05-21T05:41:21","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/langleyesquire.com\/?p=9708"},"modified":"2024-05-21T06:58:19","modified_gmt":"2024-05-21T06:58:19","slug":"japanese-politics-updates-05-12-2024","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/langleyesquire.com\/ja\/japanese-politics-updates-05-12-2024\/","title":{"rendered":"Japanese Politics Updates – May 12, 2024"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Welcome to the 17th Japanese Politics update, which went on air on May 12, 2024. The briefings come to you every week through the collaboration of Langley Esquire<\/a> and Japan Expert Insights<\/a>.<\/p>\n

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Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia to Visit Japan<\/strong><\/h2>\n

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The Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia Mohammed bin Salman is on schedule to visit Japan for three days. He will be arriving next Monday on the 20th<\/sup>. During his visit, he will lunch with the Emperor and Empress and meet with Prime Minister Kishida. This marks a significant event as it is the first post-COVID visit by a Saudi Crown Prince to Japan.<\/p>\n

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Fallout of The By-Election?<\/strong><\/h2>\n

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The recent\u00a0By-Election results have\u00a0generated\u00a0significant implications for the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and other political entities. With the LDP losing three seats and one opposition party gaining three, there has been a notable shift in the balance of power within the\u00a0Lower\u00a0House. Moreover, nine out of the 27 members the Ethics Committee now belong to the Constitutional Democratic Party. These changes in the composition of the Committee, empower them to demand testimonies. Although the LDP can technically refuse such demands(together with Komeito holding 14+ Committee seats), doing so could tarnish their image. Particularly, as opposition parties push for forty-four\u00a0LDP members to testify regarding\u00a0their involvement in the\u00a0kickback scandal, those implicated are apprehensive about the potential repercussions on their political futures, leading to reluctance to engage with the media or testify.\u00a0Push is coming to shove.<\/p>\n

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Mr. Mori\u2019s Testimony<\/strong><\/h2>\n

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Former Prime Minister Mori, credited with originating the concept of the\u00a0kickbacks in the first place (20 years ago!), may soon face a summons to testify. However, some anticipate that Mori may cite health issues to evade testifying. Meanwhile, revelations have emerged\u00a0in\u00a0the trial of the\u00a0Accountant for the Abe faction. He\u00a0readily\u00a0confessed to concealing funds as directed. Notably, under current legislation, accountants bear legal responsibility for such financial irregularities, rather than those issuing instructions or benefiting from the funds. In response to\u00a0the ire this loophole generates, the Prime Minister has pledged to introduce amendments to the law addressing this matter in the ongoing legislative session.\u00a0Let\u2019s see what actually happens.<\/p>\n

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Economic Security Clearance Bill Passed the Upper House<\/strong><\/h2>\n

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The Economic Security Bill successfully cleared the Upper House and is poised to become law in the forthcoming fiscal year. This legislation grants the government authority to designate specific economic data as possessing security significance. It also enables them to impose restrictions on its accessibility.\u00a0Are you catching this? Further, prospective individuals seeking access to this classified information will undergo a stringent vetting process, with the possibility of being denied access entirely. Consequently, the enactment of this bill heralds a substantial transformation in the handling of economic data. The implications will be far-reaching for both businesses and individuals entrusted with access to such\u00a0\u201csensitive\u201d\u00a0information.\u00a0Consider exactly who decides\u2026<\/p>\n

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More\u00a0Controversy: Defense Minister and Environment Minister\u00a0Under\u00a0Fire<\/strong><\/h2>\n

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As for\u00a0unfortunate timing, this week saw the Kishida Cabinet engulfed in not just one, but two more\u00a0incidents. The incidents\u00a0involved the Defense Minister and the Environment Minister.\u00a0Not quite rising to the level of \u201cscandal\u201d, the Defense Minister\u00a0issue\u00a0erupted following the leak of drone video depicting\u00a0the deck of a revamped and classified\u00a0Japanese helicopter aircraft carrier in-port. This video was captured clandestinely,\u00a0then\u00a0circulated and scrutinized on Chinese social media platforms,\u00a0which of course\u00a0sparked the highest-level of\u00a0apprehension\u00a0and concern\u00a0regarding security and military confidentiality.<\/p>\n

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In response, the Prime Minister reprimanded the Defense Minister for the breach. Concurrently, the Environment Minister faced backlash amid an incident where, in\u00a0a meeting with Minamata disease patients,\u00a0the\u00a0microphones of testifying patients were abruptly\u00a0cut (\u201csorry, your time is up!\u201d), provoking widespread public indignation. Instructed by the Prime Minister, the Environment Minister issued an apology, pledging heightened government sensitivity to the populace’s concerns. These\u00a0two incidents might otherwise escape much attention. However, in the current environment,\u00a0concerns beyond their immediate ramifications potentially influence\u00a0the LDP’s electoral standing, especially if a no-confidence motion\u00a0were to\u00a0prompt an election.\u00a0Obviously, the Prime Minister must have been livid.<\/p>\n

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Upcoming Race for Governor of\u00a0Shizuoka<\/strong><\/h2>\n

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As you may know, the Governor of Shizuoka stepped down following contentious comments regarding new graduates of the\u00a0Prefectural\u00a0Office. His sudden resignation triggers\u00a0a gubernatorial election. (You can just imagine the Prime Minister pulling-out more of his hair, \u201coh holy hell, what next?!?\u201d) Specifically, in this prefecture over the last 4 years, no less than 3 LDP Lower House Members have resigned (!) due to sex & money scandals.\u00a0So, whoever the LDP promotes as a candidate already has this legacy to contend with.\u00a0\u00a0In any event, six contenders have entered the race, including\u00a0the\u00a0former mayor of Hamamatsu supported by\u00a0both\u00a0the Constitutional Democratic Party\u00a0&\u00a0the Democratic Party of the People, alongside other candidates representing coalition partners.<\/p>\n

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Most notably, the LDP has opted\u00a0not\u00a0to field its own candidate but is instead throwing its support behind an independent candidate, a former\u00a0Vice\u00a0Governor and\u00a0career\u00a0bureaucrat\u00a0in the (don\u2019t you just know it) the Internal Affairs Agency. Despite being considered the favorite, the LDP-backed candidate faces stiff competition from other contenders. Specifically, the\u00a0CDP\u00a0and\u00a0DPP\u00a0endorsed the former mayor, while\u00a0Komeito (oh this is dangerous!)\u00a0has maintained a neutral stance, perceiving little distinction between the LDP-backed candidate and the former mayor. The LDP harbors concerns\u00a0(probably a stronger word is better?)\u00a0over the prospect of experiencing a\u00a0fourth<\/u><\/strong>\u00a0consecutive electoral defeat. They recognize the potential damage such an outcome could inflict on the party’s reputation and level of public support.\u00a0Things are really getting dicey.<\/p>\n

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Opportunities for Kishida to Remain as Prime Minister<\/strong><\/h2>\n

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Prime Minister Kishida faces two critical junctures to maintain his position: the upcoming LDP presidency race in late September and the potential decision to call for a snap election. Should he opt for the latter,\u00a0his position as PM evaporates and, within 30 days, the Parliament selects the new PM. It is highly likely\u00a0the LDP\u00a0will lose\u00a040-60 seats,\u00a0thus\u00a0his tenure as Prime Minister could be jeopardized. Given the possibility of\u00a0an even more-dire situation\u00a0by waiting until September, some pundits argue that calling a snap election represents his best chance of securing stability.<\/p>\n

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However, the legislative calendar imposes a constraint on Prime Minister’s decision, as the current Diet session concludes on June 23rd; closing-down the House\u00a0requires the Diet to be in session. Moreover, with the Tokyo gubernatorial election scheduled for July 7th, closing the Diet before June 23rd could potentially align the gubernatorial election with the\u00a0Lower\u00a0House election, enhancing voter turnout and political dynamics. Consequently, any extension of the Diet session to finalize pending bills or conclude Ethics Committee investigations may serve as an indicator of the likelihood of a snap election.\u00a0We are watching this very closely.<\/p>\n

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Privacy Policy<\/a><\/h4>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t
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Yen Strengthens; Real Household Consumption Continues to Fall<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t
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Following the Bank of Japan’s intervention, which involved purchasing billions of dollars worth of Yen, the currency experienced a notable strengthening, appreciating from $\/\u00a5 <\/span>160 to 155 against the US dollar. However, amidst this currency fluctuation, Japan has been grappling with economic challenges on multiple fronts. Real household consumption has seen a decline for the past 13 consecutive months, while real wages have continued to fall for 24 straight months despite attempts to bolster earnings. Consequently, the persistent decline in real wages coupled with rising inflation has resulted in a decrease in overall wealth and financial well-being for the populace. Not a good springboard for the Administration.<\/span><\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t

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New Currency for the Japanese Yen<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t
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Apologies for not covering this topic in last week\u2019s Briefing. In July, Japan will introduce three new denominations equipped with advanced security features, including a 3D hologram, aimed at thwarting counterfeiting attempts. While the new bills will feature new \u00a51,000 yen, \u00a55,000 yen and \u00a510,000 yen notes, the existing bills will remain valid and can be exchanged for the new currency. This initiative marks a significant step towards enhancing the integrity of Japan’s currency and ensuring continued trust in its monetary system. Some see this as a step towards eventual-reliance on predominantly digital cash for all transactions.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t

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Potential Trilateral Meeting Between Japan, South Korea, and China<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t
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Discussions are again underway regarding a potential trilateral meeting involving Japan, South Korea, and China. However, China’s sentiments toward Japan and South Korea have been strained due to several factors, including a large delegation of Japanese DietMembers to attend the inauguration of Taiwan\u2019s newly-elected President. Despite these tensions, the trilateral meeting is slated to take place soon, with plans suggesting it may occur before the end of this month. This meeting holds significant importance for regional diplomacy and could provide an opportunity for address existing tensions and foster cooperation among the three nations. Any step in that direction would be welcome.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t

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Questions & Comments<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t
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