{"id":13318,"date":"2025-09-18T23:54:20","date_gmt":"2025-09-18T23:54:20","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/langleyesquire.com\/?p=13318"},"modified":"2025-09-29T03:47:43","modified_gmt":"2025-09-29T03:47:43","slug":"japanese-politics-updates-20250914","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/langleyesquire.com\/en\/japanese-politics-updates-20250914\/","title":{"rendered":"Japanese Politics Updates – September 14, 2025"},"content":{"rendered":"\t\t
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Broadcast:<\/strong> Sunday, September 14, 2025
Location:<\/strong> on the deck of Gryms, nestled in Nabatahama cove, Shimoda<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Hello and welcome to Episode 240; five years strong thanks to you keeping us sharp. It\u2019s a three-day weekend\u2014Respect for the Aged Day tomorrow. This is one of Japan\u2019s 16 holidays, of which 10 join to make three-day weekends! The next one is just a month away: Sports Day, October 13. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Japan is currently in a whirlwind: Prime Minister Ishiba resigned last Sunday sparking an LDP leadership race; the yen is jittery amid global tensions in the Middle East, Ukraine, Venezula, North Korea, and inside America. Today: the yen, the Nikkei, the tariffs and the US$550 billion from Japan, who will be the next Prime Minister, the ending of the Osaka Expo, geopolitics and as always, a lively Q&A session to wrap-up our weekly briefing. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Markets & Yen: Feeling the Jitters<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Markets are on edge. At Friday\u2019s close, September 12, the yen hit 148.25 to the dollar, down 0.6% from last week, reflecting jitters after Prime Minister Ishiba\u2019s resignation announcement. Volatility marked recent months: early August weakened to 147-148 as the Bank of Japan (BOJ) held rates at 0.5%, a 17-year high from January\u2019s hike, targeting 2% inflation but wary of U.S. tariffs. Late August rallied to 145 on Fed rate cut hopes, then reversed on U.S. jobs data. June saw safe-haven strength amid global recession fears. Ishiba\u2019s exit fuels fears of looser policies from LDP successors. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

BOJ Governor Ueda faces pressure, no rate hike this month; October\u2019s on watch. The Fed\u2019s September 5 jobs report signals a rate cut, softening the dollar, adding yen pressure. Watch October\u2019s CPI on the 16th. The Nikkei hit an all-time high of 440,768 Friday, driven by global rate cut optimism and faith in Japan\u2019s export resilience despite yen wobbles. Expect 147-150 until the LDP vote October 4, dovish winner could push to 152-155, BOJ signal might rally to 145. Tariffs and Fed moves remain wild cards.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Diplomatically, High-Level Hustle<\/strong>\u00a0<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Prime Minister Ishiba\u2019s schedule stayed packed despite his resignation. Last week saw key visits: the Slovak President met Ishiba September 9; Colombia\u2019s leader visited the Osaka Expo September 5; Panama\u2019s leader held a summit and lunch with Ishiba same day. The U.S. Indo-Pacific Commander was in Tokyo all week for a senior leader seminar, boosting military ties. Defense Minister Nakatani\u2019s September 8 Seoul visit, first in 10 years, strengthened U.S.-Japan-South Korea drills. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ishiba heads to the UN General Assembly in New York, traveling September 22-23, speaking likely September 23. He\u2019ll push a free international order, but his reflection on 80 years since the Pacific War\u2019s end stirs critics fearing reopened wounds with China and South Korea, risking alliances. His Palestinian statehood float aims to boost Japan\u2019s Mideast profile but risks U.S. friction amid Gaza conflicts. These moves show Japan\u2019s resilience, with bureaucrats and ministries holding the global line amid LDP turmoil, hinting at a pendulum swing back to the administrative state.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Indo-Pacific Commander: US Ties Deepen<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The U.S. Indo-Pacific Commander\u2019s Tokyo visit last week strengthened U.S.-Japan military ties via a senior leader seminar. It aligns with Japan\u2019s defense push: new missile systems deployed, a railgun tested on a floating platform, defensive under Article 9, signaling a military-industrial shift. This supports Japan-South Korea-U.S. trilateral drills (aerial, naval, cyber) against North Korean threats, with deeper intel sharing planned. It\u2019s about deterrence as China\u2019s Taiwan moves and North Korea\u2019s Russian ties raise stakes. This security blanket supports Japan\u2019s businesses and maritime stability in a tense region.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

LDP Leadership Race<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Ishiba\u2019s September 7 resignation, citing July\u2019s upper house loss and LDP rifts, sparked an explosive LDP presidential race, vote set for October 4. Last year, nine candidates competed; Ishiba beat Sanae Takaichi in a runoff. Candidates need 20 Diet backers by September 22. No 50% in round one triggers a top-two runoff, with LDP chapters and members voting. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Contenders: <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Toshimitsu Motegi, 70, ex-faction boss, announced September 2, pushing pay hikes, BOJ normalization, regional subsidies \u2014 polls at 6%. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Takayuki Kobayashi, 50, announced September 11, right-leaning, social media savvy, thin resume \u2014 3.6%. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Sanae Takaichi, quiet, plans declaration, seeks zero food tax, conservative remake \u2014 28%, Sanso-backed. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Shinjiro Koizumi, agriculture minister, huddles with allies like Kihara Seiji \u2014 22%, 36% among LDP fans, but some call him \u201cfluff.\u201d <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Yoshimasa Hayashi, Kishida ally, confided run September 12 \u2014 scandal-free, English-fluent, 11%. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Polls show 76% doubt LDP trust. LDP\u2019s minority requires Ishin or DPP coalition, which is a postwar first. Motegi\u2019s DPP photos, Koizumi\u2019s Ishin hugs signal horse-trading. Tokyo Governor Koike\u2019s clout adds pressure. This race could shift Japan: the question is, to dovish or hawkish? <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Osaka\u2019s Big Expo Moment<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Osaka\u2019s Expo 2025 is in its final month. Nineteen million visitors by late August, 200,000 in one day September 6. It\u2019s a diplomatic magnet, too: over 100 leaders, 158 countries, fueling expo diplomacy. Yumeshima\u2019s new infrastructure and \u00a52 trillion economic boost make it a biomedical hub, tied to \u201cDesigning Future Society for Our Lives.\u201d Ishin banks on this for regional revitalization, Ishiba\u2019s pet project, a test for successors. Post-October 13, Yumeshima hosts casinos, hotels, convention spaces; some pavilions stay as museums, others recycled. It\u2019s Osaka\u2019s win, Japan\u2019s post-pandemic flex with 28 million projected visitors, 0.2% GDP boost.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ishiba\u2019s UN Speech: Hot Buttons<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Ishiba\u2019s UN speech, likely September 23, marks 80 years since the Pacific War\u2019s end. His \u201cremorse\u201d push is deeper than Abe\u2019s 2015 apology but it worries critics, risking wounds with China and South Korea, straining alliances. Most prefer Abe\u2019s line: future generations not burdened. His Palestinian statehood float aims to lift Japan\u2019s Mideast profile but risks U.S. friction amid Gaza conflicts. Polls show 63% of Japanese support a Palestinian state; bureaucrats favor dialogue to avoid provoking Israel. It\u2019s a diplomatic tightrope and the global eyes are on Ishiba\u2019s swan song.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Geopolitics: World on Edge<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Global tensions echo Japan\u2019s chaos. Ukraine: Russian strikes killed three September 13; Zelenskyy pushes to choke Moscow, but peace talks stall. Gaza: Israeli UN school strikes September 13; UNGA\u2019s two-state vote (Japan yes) adds heat. Venezuela: U.S. Marines boarded a tuna vessel September 13, escalating tensions. North Korea: 33,000-ton Russian wheat aid, 2,000 delivered, tied to Ukraine troops. China-Taiwan: 300 monthly PLA incursions; Taiwan warns \u201cdomino effect\u201d if invaded. South Korea: Ex-President Yoon in solitary after 2025 impeachments. Philippines: Duterte arrested March for drug war killings. France: 675 arrests in budget protests. London: September 13 anti-immigration protests: 110,000-150,000 clashed over the irritating issue of 100,000+ Channel crossings by unfettered immigrants. Travis Scott\u2019s chaotic concert and Mick Jagger\u2019s human rights stage plea fueled the divide. Charlie Kirk\u2019s assassination, tied to Sanseito\u2019s Tokyo rally, shakes discourse. Japan feels echoes, tourism and visa strains, but navigates with resilience.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Q&A Preview<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Maya fielded these questions so please watch the replay on LinkedIn or YouTube for insights:<\/p>\n\n\n\n