Japanese Politics Updates – November 30, 2025

Good morning, and welcome to the recap of Japanese Politics One-on-One, Episode 251, broadcast Sunday morning from below deck on Gryms.

This was one of those weeks where nothing happened in isolation. The Prime Minister spent most of it either flying to Johannesburg or operating at full speed on return. While she was away, three opposition lawmakers defected to the LDP, the largest stimulus package in decades cleared the Lower House, the yen drifted near recent lows, Japanese firms were hit by coordinated cyberattacks, and Beijing responded sharply to Tokyo’s rhetoric on Taiwan. When you put it all together, Japan today feels less like it is moving in one direction than being pulled in several at once.

G20 and the Global South

Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi arrived in Johannesburg for the G20 on Sunday, spent Monday in meetings, and was back in Tokyo by Wednesday morning after nearly 40 hours in the air. The schedule is almost unreasonable, but it reflects how compressed her calendar has become in her first month in office.

The G20 itself has drifted away from ceremony and toward competition. China and the West are now contesting Africa openly, and Japan is positioning itself as an alternative path. Leaders from Africa and the broader Global South are listening closely. Beijing arrived with Belt and Road. Japan arrived selling credibility.

Nature imposed its own storyline this year. A long-dormant volcano in Ethiopia erupted for the first time in roughly 12,000 years, disrupting flights and threatening farmland. It was an unscheduled reminder that food security and climate resilience are strategic variables rather than academic topics at summits.

Domestic Politics: The Balance Shifts

Three former Ishin lawmakers formally joined the LDP late in the week. Until Thursday, the coalition had been one seat short of a Lower House majority. Now it has one.

Numerically, it looks modest. Politically, it is transformational.

The government no longer survives vote-to-vote. The stimulus package now advances without procedural suspense. The Prime Minister is no longer forced to govern from a position of constant numerical vulnerability.

For Ishin, the episode is deeply embarrassing. The defectors had been expelled for attempting to drag the party closer to the LDP. Now they return with visibility and leverage.

For the three lawmakers, the decision was not ideological. It was existential. Two were elected through proportional representation. One faces a competitive district. If Diet seats are eventually reduced, which is  a policy still looming, their future would narrow dramatically. Joining the ruling party may not inspire voters, but it preserves viability.

For the Prime Minister, the benefit is immediate. For the LDP, the price will emerge later. Cabinet reshuffles are not festivals, they are balancing acts. Somewhere early next year, reform optics and coalition management will collide.

Economy: A Shock of Scale

The yen closed the week near 156 to the dollar. Not panicked but not recovering either. It is just grinding softly lower.

The reason is clear.

The Lower House passed a ¥21.3 trillion stimulus package, anchored by about ¥17.7 trillion in supplemental spending. It is the largest non-pandemic intervention in decades. It is also larger than Japan’s annual defense budget.

The money touches everything: cost-of-living relief, fuel subsidies, small business stabilization, AI and semiconductor programs, green transition investment, shipbuilding, and accelerated defense procurement.

While politically, it is popular, it is heavy in macroeconomic terms because markets care less about intention than trajectory. Issuance at this scale invites questions: how much new debt, how long low rates can last, and whether Tokyo intends to defend the yen if pressure intensifies.

The Prime Minister convened a rare joint meeting this week with the Finance Minister, the BOJ Governor, and the Economic Revitalization Minister. The message was synchronization, not intervention. For now, Tokyo prizes stability over strength.

Public sentiment is subtler. But even though households do not fear collapse every weaker yen is an invisible tax on groceries, utilities, and airfare.

Beijing Pushes Back

China’s response to the Prime Minister’s Taiwan remarks has not been rhetorical alone.

Restrictions on Japanese food imports and tourism are reappearing. Scallop shipments are stalling again. Airlines are quietly trimming routes. Exporters return to contingency planning.

Brief reports suggest pressure for Tokyo to soften its language. The Prime Minister later clarified her comment an she did not retract it.

Japan is once again practicing its familiar dance: quieter words, firmer policy.

Missile deployments on Yonaguni and Ishigaki proceed. Surveillance increases. Joint exercises with the U.S., Australia, and the Philippines feel routine now. Security is no longer theoretical. It is operational.

Cyberwar Comes Ashore

Major Japanese firms were struck by ransomware attacks. ASKUL’s systems were crippled, affecting clients like MUJI and Loft. Asahi Beer reported logistics damage and data exposure. Millions of records may now sit in hostile hands.

Japan’s manufacturing is elite. Its cyber defenses are still catching up. Expect more reporting obligations, more spending, and regulatory push toward resilience. Firewalls are becoming as strategic as frigates.

Political Funding Controversies in the Background

Internal Affairs Minister Yoshimasa Hayashi faces reporting questions. Growth Strategy Minister Minoru Kiuchi faces parallel scrutiny. Ishin co-leader Fumitake Fujita is now entangled in a business arrangement tied to his secretary. Even though none is fatal alone, together, they weaken insulation.

Speculation of a New Year cabinet reshuffle grows. Reform eventually requires visible discipline.

Migration, Demographics, and Policy Squeeze

Immigration rules are tightening sharply. The government now speaks openly about “zero illegal residents.” Permanent residency is becoming more expensive. Enforcement is intensifying.

Some of this is politics. Some is panic.

Japan’s population is shrinking. Tokyo’s aggressive childcare subsidies are pulling families back into the capital. The rest of the country watches with admiration and budget envy. Demographics has become policy gravity and no program escapes it.

Audience Q&A

• Is the Prime Minister is now politically safer than assumed?
• Aren’t China’s tactics backfiring, as PM Takaichi’s approval ratings have improved?
• Which sectors will suffer most from Beijing’s pressure?
• How credible the new government spending watchdog may be?
• What became of U.S.–Japan investment commitments?
• Should party-hopping cost politicians their seats?
• Doesn’ Japan risk returning to militarism? 
• Will late-breaking allegations against the Defense Minister widen?