Japanese Politics Updates – November 8, 2026

I am reporting from my homeport in Hota on the Chiba coast, on the inside lip of the massive Tokyo harbor. I am in port today doing some prep work for a longer voyage coming-up (weather permitting). Last week was a four-day work week after Culture Day on Tuesday. We also have a three-day weekend coming on November 23 for Labor Thanksgiving Day. The US midterm elections were a real shock. They are a Democratic setback for the Republicans that has already produced heartburn at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs over alliance continuity and the AI data center outlook that drove markets. This is our 300th weekly episode.

The Food-Tax Bill and the Walkouts

On Friday the Lower House passed the government’s Consumption Tax Reduction Bill. It sent it to the Upper House, where the real contest begins on Wednesday. The rate on foodstuffs drops from 8 percent to 1 percent, with residual supplemental payments for dual-income households under a certain income. The vote itself was overshadowed by four senior LDP fiscal hawks walking out of the main chamber rather than voting: former Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba, Obuchi, Furukawa, and Funada Hajime. They absented themselves instead of voting against the party line. Ishiba says the funding is unclear, public finances will be damaged, the yen will depreciate, rates will rise, and prices will increase. LDP leaders warned that punishments could be meted out for defying party instructions. The rebels restated the risks to social-security stability and the effect of the tax increases that will hit when the cut expires in two years.

The Bill now moves to the Upper House. The LDP has a supermajority in the Lower House and does not need partners there. In the Upper House the opposition secured an ad hoc committee of forty members—nineteen from the LDP and twenty from the opposition—with an LDP chairman who does not vote except as a tiebreaker. Deliberations begin Wednesday. The committee is more advisory than blocking, and the Bill is expected to pass. The controversies that lingered in the Lower House will reach full description upstairs.

Between the LDP, Ishin, and possibly Komeito or the DPFP, the government is relatively confident. And yet only five weeks remain in the session and the political cost is already heavy. A clean Upper House passage without a second Lower House vote is still possible. If the Upper House rejects it, the Lower House can override with its supermajority, but that creates long-lasting scars.

Defense Envelope and Deterrence by Denial

The government is considering a five-year defense envelope almost 1.8 times what is currently in process. Japan once held firm at 1 percent of GDP. President Trump pushed for 2 percent, and a five-year plan was agreed. Prime Minister Takaichi said she would spend the same amount in four years and received a slap on the back. Advisory-council discussions have included a possible tax increase and joint Ministry of Defense and METI cooperation for emergency production, startup investment, and export-market development.

Japan is taking the beginning steps of a military-industrial complex. Defense Minister Shinjiro Koizumi has been pushing the phrase “deterrence by denial”. He has been making adversaries too afraid to consider kinetic action involving Japan. AI integration is a heavy component, with parallel work on US commercial systems and domestic alternatives. A cybersecurity emergency package is being prepared after the recent breach surge. Meanwhile, the government is reviewing the active cyber-defense laws.

Yen and the Markets

The yen closed Friday at 158, after 157.5 last week. The week saw limited movement around the 158 level. The stock-market shock and US political uncertainty are the near-term variables. Bank of Japan and Ministry of Finance rhetoric remains cautious. The Finance Minister said that if there is volatility in the FX markets the government will move very swiftly. There have been no intervention signals, however. They want to keep the yen away from 160, and the Bank of Japan will consider that at its December meeting.

The Nikkei closed Friday 6 percent down, the third-largest drop on record. It fell below 60,000 for the first time since May and is roughly 20 percent off its peak. The Topix was also down 6 percent. The hardest hit were AI-chip and data-center names. Wall Street’s Thursday selloff after the Democratic midterm gains was the trigger. Many Democratic candidates had campaigned against aggressive data-center buildouts and for tighter AI rules. The underlying worry is that regulations and local opposition may delay returns on the enormous AI infrastructure spend.

The Wages

On wages there was good news. Labor Ministry data for September showed nominal wages up 4.6 percent year-on-year, the fastest since 1997. Real cash earnings were up 2.2 percent. That keeps the Bank of Japan on a December hold note. Labor shortages remain acute, and the policy on foreign workers is still a binding constraint. 

The Specific Skilled Worker Type 1 program has a sectoral cap of 50,000 for food-service categories. Currently, new applications are suspended. The government has a combined planning figure of roughly 1.23 million across relevant programs through 2028. Minister Kimi Onoda, in charge of the foreign-resident file, has indicated the government is unlikely to raise the caps broadly. Furthermore, it prefers productivity gains, AI, and domestic recruitment first. Prime Minister Takaichi has pledged to finalize a basic policy on accepting foreign residents by March 2027, potentially including an overall numeric framework. Industry groups continue to press for more slots. Japan has slipped from number-two GDP to number six.

Russia and North Korea

Russia seized control of Japan Tobacco assets. Putin ordered a temporary administration of four Japan Tobacco International manufacturing units in St. Petersburg and other cities, including Leningrad. Japan is probably a 30 or 40 percent shareholder. Russia accounts for about 10 percent of group sales and about 25 percent of operating profit. Ownership stakes remain with Japan Tobacco, but management control has been transferred to a Russian entity. Tokyo protested immediately and demanded restoration of Japanese control. This compounds the arrest of the Hokkaido Shimbun journalist roughly two to three weeks ago for spying. He has been whisked to Moscow. Foreign Minister Motegi attended the G20 foreign ministers’ meeting in Atlanta and pressed his Russian counterpart Lavrov for the journalist’s release. There was no immediate response.

North Korea has been active. Recent tests included cluster-munition warheads on cruise missiles, with launches into the Sea of Japan. The FBI attributed the record $6.3 billion crypto heist of October to a North Korean trader group that used fake job interviews and multi-month infiltration of engineers. North Korea denied it. Separately, internet-of-things refrigeration-controller hacks have hit European supermarkets and blood-storage facilities; attribution remains open, with some suspicion of Iran. Japan’s own domestic breach surge prompted emergency meetings in the Kantei for a new cyber package.

The China Anniversary

It has been exactly one year since Prime Minister Takaichi’s Diet remarks that any kinetic action by China on Taiwan would present Japan with an existential threat. Even after this time, China remains upset. It has turned off rare-earth trade and tourism, and is exercising diplomacy to pressure a withdrawal. It is unlikely the Prime Minister will withdraw the remarks. Prime Minister Takaichi is preparing to attend the APEC leaders’ summit in China on 18–19 November if parliamentary duties allow. Foreign Minister Motegi is coordinating a possible bilateral with Xi. She will skip the COP 31 leaders’ meeting in Turkey. Defense Minister Koizumi will meet his US and South Korean counterparts on the sidelines of the ASEAN defense meetings in the Philippines around the end of the month.

Today in History

Tomorrow is the anniversary of the Taisei Hōkan in 1867, when the Tokugawa shogunate formally returned political power to the Emperor and opened the Meiji Restoration. It was an orderly transfer under external pressure that produced systemic transformation rather than collapse. The parallel to today’s moment is the Japanese government managing internal LDP dissent, an Upper House minority, and external pressures while trying to lock in longer-term capability. Meanwhile, the economy is not doing well, Japan needs to spend more money in the hopes of generating some, the defense budget is increasing by 1.8 times, and the controversies with China, Russia, and North Korea continue unabated.

Q&A Highlights

• How will the US midterm results affect alliance continuity and the AI data-center outlook that drove markets?

• In what ways might the modified Sainte-Laguë or Webster method in the 31-seat reduction affect the functioning and ethos of the Diet, particularly for smaller parties and independents?

• To what extent are visits by parliamentary leagues regarded as important in Japanese diplomacy, and is it effective for foreign businesses to approach them?

• Will the LDP–Ishin coalition last as long as the one with Komeito, or are we entering a period of less restraint on foreign-policy modification?

• Do you think the rate of yen repatriation will accelerate to help fill the hole left by the Food Tax Bill?

In Closing

The Food Tax Bill has cleared the Lower House and the Upper House contest begins Wednesday. The defense envelope is becoming larger. The yen sits at 158 with the 160 level still the tripwire. Next briefing is Sunday, November 15, at 8:20 a.m. JST.

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