Japanese Politics Updates – November 2, 2025

Good morning, and welcome to a recap of Japanese Politics One-on-One Episode 247, the go-to source for ahead-of-the-curve insights into Japan’s political arena. We are aired live on YouTube, Facebook, LinkedIn, and Clubhouse; This week’s broadcast comes amid Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s whirlwind first two weeks: a diplomatic marathon with Trump and regional leaders, a fragile LDP-Ishin pact under Diet fire, and escalating gray-zone provocations from North Korea, China, and Russia.

Takaichi’s Two-Week Sprint: Diplomacy Dominates, Domestic Fragility Looms

Twelve days into office, PM Sanae Takaichi, Japan’s 104th post-war leader and first woman, has aced three back-to-back summits while juggling Ishin’s 10 “drop-dead” demands in a 53-day extraordinary Diet session that ends December 17. The LDP (191 seats) plus Ishin (41) totals 232, still one short of a Lower House majority. Ishin skipped cabinet seats to preserve maximum leverage: praise the successes, bolt on the failures.

The key diplomatic legs were ASEAN in Malaysia (October 21-22), the Trump state visit in Tokyo (October 24-26), and APEC in South Korea (October 28-29). Takaichi returns today, November 2, for Culture Day events. With no outbound travel next week, her full focus shifts to domestic survival.

Diet Dynamics: 53-Day Crunch and Ishin’s Leverage

The extraordinary session opened October 21; Takaichi won the prime ministerial vote the same day. Lower House supremacy ensures LDP control on budgets, but minority status demands votes from independents or the Democratic Party for the People. Priorities include a ¥15 trillion supplemental budget for gas-tax relief and stimulus, plus meeting several Ishin demands.

Ishin’s 10 concessions must pass this session or the alliance cracks. The top four are: 

• 10% Diet seat reduction (requires 65% vote; filibuster risk)
• Osaka as secondary capital (disaster hub versus Tokyo quake)
• Free high school education plus raised social-security tax ceiling
• Corporate donation ban (draft mid-November)

Passage odds: budget 70-80%; reforms around 50%. Diet grilling comes November 5-6; the supplemental committee starts this week. A snap election remains possible before year-end via no-confidence motion, but holidays and public fatigue make it unlikely. Campaign lasts 12 days, vote on a Sunday within 30 days of dissolution.

Economic Signals: Yen Weakens, BOJ on Watch

The yen closed at 153.99/USD on October 31, weaker week-on-week. Hitting 156 would trigger BOJ intervention, guaranteed to irritate the US. The BOJ held rates October 31; a December hike remains possible. The growth panel on November 7, Takaichi, Governor Ueda, and Ishin’s Yoshimura, signals yen coordination.

The IMF projects 2025 GDP at 1.2%; inflation stands at 2.3%, wages down 1.4%. The stimulus aims to blunt the pain. Global flux looms: BRICS de-dollar push, Trump-Fed tensions – currency regime upheaval in 6-24 months.

Geopolitical Flashpoints: Three-Front Gray Zone

North Korea fired two hypersonic missiles on October 21, the first in five months. Lofted trajectory, no Japan EEZ hit; F-15s scrambled from Okinawa. Signal: “Don’t forget us.”

China’s Senkaku incursions ran 335 consecutive days until a 10-day typhoon pause. Four armed Coast Guard vessels re-entered the contiguous zone just yesterday, November 1, eight nautical miles from the island; Japan Coast Guard shadows.

Russia declared a 50,000 km² exclusion zone plus live-fire drills in the Northern Territories through November 7 or 8 – retaliation for Ukraine sanctions. Sakhalin-2 tankers must reroute 200+ km, adding $500,000 per trip and disrupting 9-10% of Japan’s LNG.

Defense acceleration: 2% of GDP by 2027; constitutional revision gains momentum.

Trump-Takaichi Summit: Golden-Age Optics, Substance Delivered

The three-day state visit featured an emperor audience, banquet, and F-150/Tundra motorcade as a trade nod. Trump called Japan an “ally at the strongest level… one of the great PMs.” Takaichi appeared warm and gregarious; her 48% approval marks the best debut in three prime ministers. Shuttle diplomacy and intel-sharing with Seoul resumed. The $550 billion pledge was deferred, “challenged only if unfair.”

Upcoming: East Asia Summit in Laos (November 14-15; potential Xi bilateral on rare earths); G20 in Johannesburg (November 22-23; Indo-Pacific focus, G7 handover).

Questions From The Audience

• What factors might become the breaking point of the LDP-Ishin alliance? Meanwhile, do you expect the Democratic Party for the People and LDP-leaning independents like Mr. Hiroshi Seko to keep the government going even in the event of a breakup?
• No one really wants another general election for at least 6 months to a year. How long do you think this government will survive before calling a general election? Do you think the LDP could increase seats?
• Can you predict if the mercurial Mr. Tamaki of the Democratic Party for the People will be an alliance partner of the LDP or with the Constitutional Democratic Party in the next general election?
• During or after the Diet session, three options: long-term status quo, election after popularity peaks, or reshuffle/placement. Thoughts on priority sequence?
• How does the scandal over unreported political funds by Mr. Fujita of Ishin No Kai potentially affect the coalition?
• Will the government of Japan be able to control the yen appreciation enough without being so competitive with the US and controlling import costs?

In Closing

Takaichi has nailed diplomacy – Trump chemistry, Seoul shuttle – and bought domestic runway. The next 14 days will be decisive: Diet grilling, budget vote, yen at 155+. The gray-zone siege tests resolve; Japan eyes an Indo-Pacific bridge role, if the coalition holds. Join us next Sunday at 8:20 AM JST for Episode 248 to unpack outcomes and scandals. Share if insightful, and subscribe for more. Thank you for reading! Subscribe for free to receive new posts and support our work.